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Matthieu Jalibert et la théorie des 5% sur un match

Le demi d'ouverture de Bordeaux, Matthieu Jalibert, pendant le match de Top 14 entre l'Union Bordeaux-Begles (UBB) et Bayonne (Aviron Bayonnais) au stade Chaban-Delmas à Bordeaux, dans le sud-ouest de la France, le 5 octobre 2024. (Photo by ROMAIN PERROCHEAU / AFP) (Photo by ROMAIN PERROCHEAU/AFP via Getty Images)

Samedi 5 octobre, pour le compte de la 5e journée de Top 14, les Bordelais ont tremblé jusqu’au coup de sifflet final face à des Bayonnais audacieux. Score final : 30-27 pour l’UBB qui a bien failli laisser échapper la rencontre grâce à un retour en force de l’Aviron.

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Rencontre
Top 14
Bordeaux
30 - 27
Temps complet
Bayonne
Toutes les stats et les données

Tout se déroulait pourtant bien avec le style de jeu offensif propre aux Bordelais qui leur permettait d’inscrire quatre essais.

Lorsque s’approche l’heure de jeu, la machine pourtant s’enraye alors que l’UBB mène 27-10, quatre essais à un. C’est alors que Bayonne en profite pour revenir à fond, son travail de sape portant enfin ses fruits.

Graphique d'évolution des points

Bordeaux gagne +3
Temps passé en tête
52
Minutes passées en tête
13
64%
% du match passés en tête
16%
38%
Possession sur les 10 dernières minutes
62%
3
Points sur les 10 dernières minutes
7

La remontée est constante : 17 points en 16 minutes grâce à des essais de Rodrigo Bruni (56e) et Yohan Orabe (72e) transformés par Joris Segonds qui passera un drop en plus (59e). Bref, à sept minutes du terme, les deux équipes sont à égalité.

« Sur le match on a perdu pas loin de 20 ballons en tout, sur les rucks, les en-avants, les turnovers », décrypte le demi d’ouverture Matthieu Jalibert sur TV7.

« Cet essai à l’heure de jeu (Bruni, 56e) part d’une erreur où on récupère le ballon, on essaie de tenter quelque chose autour du ruck. On fait un en-avant qu’ils récupèrent et ils vont marquer. »

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Jalibert développe alors sa « théorie des 5% » qui peuvent faire basculer un match d’un côté ou de l’autre. 5% de chance en plus ou en moins, 5% de rebond en plus ou en moins, 5% de vista en plus ou en moins … On peut développer à l’envi.

« C’est 5% qui parfois sont pas là et qui font toute la différence sur ce genre de match », affirme-t-il.

« Ils ont joué crânement leur chance, ils ont mis l’intensité pendant 80 minutes, ils ont trouvé des solutions et nous on s’est relâche de 5-10%. Et face à des équipes comme ça, ça ne pardonne pas. »

Grâce à une pénalité de Mateo Garcia à la 76e, l’UBB a réussi à décrocher la victoire. Ce jour-là, Garcia a eu 5% de temps de jeu en plus.

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J
JW 3 hours ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

Yep, that's exactly what I want.

Glasgow won the URC and Edinburgh finished 16th, but Scotland won the six nations, Edinburgh would qualify for the Champions Cup under your system.

It's 'or'. If Glasgow won the URC or Scotland won the six nations. If one of those happens I believe it will (or should) be because the league is in a strong place, and that if a Scotland side can do that, there next best club team should be allowed to reach for the same and that would better serve the advancement of the game.


Now, of course picking a two team league like Scotland is the extreme case of your argument, but I'm happy for you to make it. First, Edinbourgh are a good mid table team, so they are deserving, as my concept would have predicted, of the opportunity to show can step up. Second, you can't be making a serious case that Gloucester are better based on beating them, surely. You need to read Nicks latest article on SA for a current perspective on road teams in the EPCR. Christ, you can even follow Gloucester and look at the team they put out the following week to know that those games are meaningless.


More importantly, third. Glasgow are in a league/pool with Italy, So the next team to be given a spot in my technically imperfect concept would be Benneton. To be fair to my idea that's still in it's infancy, I haven't given any thought to those 'two team' leagues/countries yet, and I'm not about to 😋

They would be arguably worse if they didn't win the Challenge Cup.

Incorrect. You aren't obviously familiar with knockout football Finn, it's a 'one off' game. But in any case, that's not your argument. You're trying to suggest they're not better than the fourth ranked team in the Challenge Cup that hasn't already qualified in their own league, so that could be including quarter finalists. I have already given you an example of a team that is the first to get knocked out by the champions not getting a fair ranking to a team that loses to one of the worst of the semi final teams (for example).

Sharks are better

There is just so much wrong with your view here. First, the team that you are knocking out for this, are the Stormers, who weren't even in the Challenge Cup. They were the 7th ranked team in the Champions Cup. I've also already said there is good precedent to allow someone outside the league table who was heavily impacted early in the season by injury to get through by winning Challenge Cup. You've also lost the argument that Sharks qualify as the third (their two best are in my league qualification system) South African team (because a SAn team won the CC, it just happened to be them) in my system. I'm doubt that's the last of reasons to be found either.


Your system doesn't account for performance or changes in their domestic leagues models, and rely's heavily on an imperfect and less effective 'winner takes all' model.

Giving more incentives to do well in the Challenge Cup will make people take it more seriously. My system does that and yours doesn't.

No your systems doesn't. Not all the time/circumstances. You literally just quoted me describing how they aren't going to care about Challenge Cup if they are already qualifying through league performance. They are also not going to hinder their chance at high seed in the league and knockout matches, for the pointless prestige of the Challenge Cup.


My idea fixes this by the suggesting that say a South African or Irish side would actually still have some desire to win one of their own sides a qualification spot if they win the Challenge Cup though. I'll admit, its not the strongest incentive, but it is better than your nothing. I repeat though, if your not balance entries, or just my assignment, then obviously winning the Challenge Cup should get you through, but your idea of 4th place getting in a 20 team EPCR? Cant you see the difference lol


Not even going to bother finishing that last paragraph. 8 of 10 is not an equal share.

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