Northern Edition

Select Edition

Northern Northern
Southern Southern
Global Global
New Zealand New Zealand
France France

How the final act of the 2017 Six Nations could change the 2019 World Cup

What happens in Paris this weekend may not necessarily stay in Paris

The Irish should be cheering on the French this weekend. More weirdly, and depending on what happens in Paris, Welsh rugby fans may actually WANT England to win the Grand Slam. Here’s why…

ADVERTISEMENT

The Six Nations championship – and the destination of the wooden spoon – may have been decided a week early, but this final round of matches is no dead rubber.

What happens in Edinburgh, Paris and Dublin this weekend could shape events in Kyoto, Japan, on May 10, as international rugby’s very own, very specific chaos butterfly flaps its wings for the final time before the draw for the 2019 World Cup takes place.

Similar to its more commonly known chaos theory cousin, the hurricane butterfly, what lepidoptera rugbychaotica does this weekend in those three European cities could have a big effect on the other side of the world in several weeks’ time.

Thanks to their top-three pool finishes in the 2015 World Cup, all the Six Nations and Rugby Championship sides, as well as Japan and Georgia, are included in the draw. Fiji, currently ranked 10th have yet to qualify.

The 12 sides will be split into three groups of four based on World Rugby’s rankings on May 10, which will not change from the rankings decided, following this weekend’s matches. Using current standings, the 12 confirmed teams at Japan 2019 breakdown as follows:

Draw Tier 1: New Zealand, England, Australia, Ireland

Draw Tier 2: Scotland, Wales, South Africa, France

Draw Tier 3: Argentina, Japan, Georgia, Italy

ADVERTISEMENT

Two further tiers for teams yet to qualify from their tournaments will be included in the draw.

[rugbypass-ad-banner id=”1485479950″]

Tier 1 teams will be drawn first into four separate pools. Those four pools will be filled in turn by teams drawn from tier 2, then tier 3, and so on.

France and Wales meet in a match that could have the biggest impact on the all-important rankings. Rob Howley’s Wales will take Ireland’s top-four place – and their tier 1 slot – if they win in Paris and England complete the first-ever back-to-back Grand Slam in the 17-year history of the Six Nations in Dublin.

Meanwhile, if France loses by 15 points or more, they will drop one crucial place to ninth in World Rugby’s rankings, surrendering their tier 2 slot to Argentina, and becoming all the more likely to be drawn in an impossible pool.

ADVERTISEMENT

meanwhile, things may be looking good for Scotland, despite last week’s shellacking by England, as Vern Cotter prepares to hand over the keys to the head coach’s office to Gregor Townsend. Stern Vern’s final match in charge is at home against Italy, and it has all the hallmarks of a big farewell party to the man who has restored a fair portion of Scottish pride to the rugby rank and file.

Ranking points are calculated using a formula based on opposing teams’ current standings. As a result, Scotland, currently basking in their best World Rugby ranking of fifth, stand to gain no points no matter how well they beat 15th-placed Italy. Even if they lose a close game, they will remain in the top eight – which would mean they would be included in the second tier of teams in May’s big draw. But, should the unthinkable happen and Italy win by 15 points or more, Scotland will drop to ninth. That would put them in the third tier for the draw.

And, as you have no doubt worked out, if Wales win in Paris, Ireland have to win in Dublin to preserve their top four, top-tier status.

All of which means that Irish fans, despite their shared Celtic bond with Wales, should probably support France in Paris. Of course, if Wales win, anyone heading into Cardiff city centre later one, could witness the strange sight and sound of Welsh rugby fans cheering and chanting – maybe even singing! – for England in the final match of ‘Super Saturday’.

Such is the effect of international rugby’s chaos butterfly.

ADVERTISEMENT

LIVE

{{item.title}}

Trending on RugbyPass

Comments

0 Comments
Be the first to comment...

Join free and tell us what you really think!

Sign up for free
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest Features

Comments on RugbyPass

O
Oh no, not him again? 2 hours ago
England internationals disagree on final play execution vs All Blacks

Okay, so we blew it big time on Saturday. So rather than repeating what most people have all ready said, what do I want to see from Borthwick going forward?


Let's keep Marcus Smith on the pitch if he's fit and playing well. I was really pleased with his goal kicking. It used to be his weakness. I feel sympathy for George Ford who hadn't kicked all match and then had a kick to win the game. You hear pundits and commentators commend kickers who have come off the bench and pulled that off. Its not easy. If Steve B continues to substitute players with no clear reason then he is going to get criticised.


On paper I thought England would beat NZ if they played to their potential and didn't show NZ too much respect. Okay, the off the ball tackles certainly stopped England scoring tries, but I would have liked to see more smashing over gainlines and less kicking for position. Yes, I also know it's the Springbok endorsed world cup double winning formula but the Kiwi defence isn't the Bok defence, is it. If you have the power to put Smith on the front foot then why muzzle him? I guess what I'm saying is back, yourself. Why give the momentum to a team like NZ? Why feed the beast? Don't give the ball to NZ. Well d'uh.


Our scrum is a long term weakness. If you are going to play Itoje then he needs an ogre next door and a decent front row. Where is our third world class lock? Where are are realible front row bench replacements? The England scrum has been flakey for a while now. It blows hot and cold. Our front five bench is not world class.


On the positive side I love our starting backrow right now. I'd like to see them stick together through to the next world cup.


Anyway, there is always another Saturday.

7 Go to comments
C
CO 3 hours ago
Scott Robertson responds to criticism over All Blacks' handling errors

Robertson is more a manager of coaches than a coach so it comes down to intent of outcomes at a high level. I like his intent, I like the fact his Allblacks are really driving the outcomes however as he's pointed out the high error rates are not test level and their control of the game is driving both wins and losses. England didn't have to play a lot of rugby, they made far fewer mistakes and were extremely unlucky not to win.


In fact the English team were very early in their season and should've been comfortably beaten by an Allblacks team that had played multiple tests together.


Razor has himself recognised that to be the best they'll have to sort out the crisis levels of mistakes that have really increased since the first two tests against England.


Early tackles were a classic example of hyper enthusiasm to not give an inch, that passion that Razor has achieved is going to be formidable once the unforced errors are eliminated.


That's his secret, he's already rebuilt the passion and that's the most important aspect, its inevitable that he'll now eradicate the unforced errors. When that happens a fellow tier one nation is going to get thrashed. I don't think it will be until 2025 though.


The Allblacks will lose both tests against Ireland and France if they play high error rates rugby like they did against England.


To get the unforced errors under control he's going to be needing to handover the number eight role to Sititi and reset expectations of what loose forwards do. Establish a clear distinction with a large, swarthy lineout jumper at six that is a feared runner and dominant tackler and a turnover specialist at seven that is abrasive in contact. He'll then need to build depth behind the three starters and ruthlessly select for that group to be peaking in 2027 in hit Australian conditions on firm, dry grounds.


It's going to help him that Savea is shifting to the worst super rugby franchise where he's going to struggle behind a beaten pack every week.


The under performing loose forward trio is the key driver of the high error rates and unacceptable turn overs due to awol link work. Sititi is looking like he's superman compared to his openside and eight.


At this late stage in the season they shouldn't be operating with just the one outstanding loose forward out of four selected for the English test. That's an abject failure but I think Robertson's sacrificing link quality on purpose to build passion amongst the junior Allblacks as they see the reverential treatment the old warhorses are receiving for their long term hard graft.


It's unfortunately losing test matches and making what should be comfortable wins into nail biters but it's early in the world cup cycle so perhaps it's a sacrifice worth making.


However if this was F1 then Sam Cane would be Riccardo and Ardie would be heading into Perez territory so the loose forwards desperately need revitalisation through a rebuild over the next season to complement the formidable tight five.

28 Go to comments
TRENDING
TRENDING Borthwick, it's time to own up – Andy Goode Borthwick, it's time to own up – Andy Goode
Search