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Why 3-0 over the Wallabies is not guaranteed for the Lions

British & Irish Lions coach Andy Farrell and Wallabies centre Len Ikitau. (Photos by David Rogers/Getty Images/ Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The British & Irish Lions will bring one of their strongest-ever touring squads to Australia in 2025 under new head coach Andy Farrell but talk of a 3-0 sweep is too premature.

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The Wallabies recent Rugby World Cup failure is not an indication of how they will be when the Lions arrive. That disastrous World Cup campaign is a textbook case study in what not to do.

Rugby Australia installed a new head coach and management with just five Tests left in the cycle on the whim of axed Chairman Hamish McLennan, a period in which Eddie Jones picked seven new captains, axed the most experienced players after the Rugby Championship, and took the statistically youngest side to the World Cup with the lowest number of caps.

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He reduced the Wallabies game plan to a desolate version of power rugby, removing space manipulation through scheme, dumbing down the attacking play to the most simplistic, one-dimensional, unimaginative type of rugby available. Plan A was to use big bodies and brute force and there was no plan B.

Many of the players regressed with young flyhalf Carter Gordon stripped of the kind of rugby that made him look like such an exciting prospect at the Rebels. They prevented him from using his strengths and instead asked him to play an unnatural game requiring too much aimless kicking.

That level of instability trying to change everything Rennie had built in such a short time frame was always going to fail. The fly-by-night approach of Jones & McLennan was nothing short of a disaster.

Had Rennie been able to take the side to the World Cup things would have likely been better with largely the same group of players.

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The Wallabies under Rennie held a 75 per cent win record over South Africa, the eventual champions, showing Australia’s potential at their best.

On the 2022 end of year tour they beat Wales 39-34 in Cardiff on the back of two tries by debutant Mark Nawaqanitawase. Just 12 months later when the two same sides met, Australia lost 40-6 in the pool stages.

On that same 2022 tour they lost by a point 30-29 to France’s full strength side in Paris featuring Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Gregory Alldritt, Charles Ollivon.

Had Rennie’s side qualified for the knockout stages, they would have been competitive against anyone bar the All Blacks who they struggled against all through his tenure.

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The Wallabies were completely undone by management up top who are no longer involved.

There is enough time for the Wallabies to build a squad capable of beating the British & Irish Lions, at least once, and Australia have enough talent to do so.

They missed their defensive lynchpin Len Ikitau at the World Cup, one of the best defenders in the world, who went down with injury during the Rugby Championship. They lost the best prop in the world Taniela Tupou during the World Cup shortly after returning from injury. Rennie’s flyhalf Noah Lolesio was left in the cold by Jones.

In terms of world-class players they will have a few in addition to Tupou and Ikitau. Angus Bell will only be 25, Rob Valetini will be 27, Will Skelton is still viable at 33.

In terms of new faces, Max Jorgensen is a star in the making, while high profile recruit Joseph Sua’ali’i will be there. If he is Folau 2.0 the Wallabies would love to see him match Israel’s impact during the last Lions tour.

The Wallabies will be completely different outfit come 2025 and could be trending in the right direction if they need to get the head coaching appointment right. And hopefully soon so that they can embed the systems on defence, attack and set-piece with enough proficiency.

The Lions squad is short odds to be heavily-laden with Ireland players, particularly up front with most of Ireland’s pack expected to be picked. They will bring a level of cohesion and chemistry that will be difficult for the Wallabies to match.

There are many systemic issues in Australian Rugby. However, 18 months is a long time in rugby. Long enough for the Wallabies to sort themselves out to be competitive.

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Comments

2 Comments
P
Pecos 342 days ago

Great article. On the same 2022 tour they also lost a close one v Ireland by 3 points.

Anyone who writes the Australians off this early in the new regime is an idiot.

That includes us too.

W
Wayneo 342 days ago

Either somebody gave Ben a six pack of Kool aid or he was paid to write this article.
My money is on the Kool aid.

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JW 2 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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