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Why 3-0 over the Wallabies is not guaranteed for the Lions

British & Irish Lions coach Andy Farrell and Wallabies centre Len Ikitau. (Photos by David Rogers/Getty Images/ Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

The British & Irish Lions will bring one of their strongest-ever touring squads to Australia in 2025 under new head coach Andy Farrell but talk of a 3-0 sweep is too premature.

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The Wallabies recent Rugby World Cup failure is not an indication of how they will be when the Lions arrive. That disastrous World Cup campaign is a textbook case study in what not to do.

Rugby Australia installed a new head coach and management with just five Tests left in the cycle on the whim of axed Chairman Hamish McLennan, a period in which Eddie Jones picked seven new captains, axed the most experienced players after the Rugby Championship, and took the statistically youngest side to the World Cup with the lowest number of caps.

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He reduced the Wallabies game plan to a desolate version of power rugby, removing space manipulation through scheme, dumbing down the attacking play to the most simplistic, one-dimensional, unimaginative type of rugby available. Plan A was to use big bodies and brute force and there was no plan B.

Many of the players regressed with young flyhalf Carter Gordon stripped of the kind of rugby that made him look like such an exciting prospect at the Rebels. They prevented him from using his strengths and instead asked him to play an unnatural game requiring too much aimless kicking.

That level of instability trying to change everything Rennie had built in such a short time frame was always going to fail. The fly-by-night approach of Jones & McLennan was nothing short of a disaster.

Had Rennie been able to take the side to the World Cup things would have likely been better with largely the same group of players.

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The Wallabies under Rennie held a 75 per cent win record over South Africa, the eventual champions, showing Australia’s potential at their best.

On the 2022 end of year tour they beat Wales 39-34 in Cardiff on the back of two tries by debutant Mark Nawaqanitawase. Just 12 months later when the two same sides met, Australia lost 40-6 in the pool stages.

On that same 2022 tour they lost by a point 30-29 to France’s full strength side in Paris featuring Antoine Dupont, Romain Ntamack, Gregory Alldritt, Charles Ollivon.

Had Rennie’s side qualified for the knockout stages, they would have been competitive against anyone bar the All Blacks who they struggled against all through his tenure.

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The Wallabies were completely undone by management up top who are no longer involved.

There is enough time for the Wallabies to build a squad capable of beating the British & Irish Lions, at least once, and Australia have enough talent to do so.

They missed their defensive lynchpin Len Ikitau at the World Cup, one of the best defenders in the world, who went down with injury during the Rugby Championship. They lost the best prop in the world Taniela Tupou during the World Cup shortly after returning from injury. Rennie’s flyhalf Noah Lolesio was left in the cold by Jones.

In terms of world-class players they will have a few in addition to Tupou and Ikitau. Angus Bell will only be 25, Rob Valetini will be 27, Will Skelton is still viable at 33.

In terms of new faces, Max Jorgensen is a star in the making, while high profile recruit Joseph Sua’ali’i will be there. If he is Folau 2.0 the Wallabies would love to see him match Israel’s impact during the last Lions tour.

The Wallabies will be completely different outfit come 2025 and could be trending in the right direction if they need to get the head coaching appointment right. And hopefully soon so that they can embed the systems on defence, attack and set-piece with enough proficiency.

The Lions squad is short odds to be heavily-laden with Ireland players, particularly up front with most of Ireland’s pack expected to be picked. They will bring a level of cohesion and chemistry that will be difficult for the Wallabies to match.

There are many systemic issues in Australian Rugby. However, 18 months is a long time in rugby. Long enough for the Wallabies to sort themselves out to be competitive.

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Comments

2 Comments
P
Pecos 311 days ago

Great article. On the same 2022 tour they also lost a close one v Ireland by 3 points.

Anyone who writes the Australians off this early in the new regime is an idiot.

That includes us too.

W
Wayneo 312 days ago

Either somebody gave Ben a six pack of Kool aid or he was paid to write this article.
My money is on the Kool aid.

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J
JW 3 hours ago
'Passionate reunion of France and New Zealand shows Fabien Galthie is wrong to rest his stars'

Ok, managed to read the full article..

... New Zealand’s has only 14 and the professional season is all over within four months. In France, club governance is the responsibility of an independent organisation [the Ligue Nationale de Rugby or LNR] which is entirely separate from the host union [the Fédération Française de Rugby or FFR]. Down south New Zealand Rugby runs the provincial and the national game.

That is the National Provincial Championship, a competition of 14 representative union based teams run through the SH international window and only semi professional (paid only during it's running). It is run by NZR and goes for two and a half months.


Super Rugby is a competition involving 12 fully professional teams, of which 5 are of New Zealand eligibility, and another joint administered team of Pacific Island eligibility, with NZR involvement. It was a 18 week competition this year, so involved (randomly chosen I believe) extra return fixtures (2 or 3 home and away derbys), and is run by Super Rugby Pacific's own independent Board (or organisation). The teams may or may not be independently run and owned (note, this does not necessarily mean what you think of as 'privately owned').


LNR was setup by FFR and the French Government to administer the professional game in France. In New Zealand, the Players Association and Super Rugby franchises agreed last month to not setup their own governance structure for professional rugby and re-aligned themselves with New Zealand Rugby. They had been proposing to do something like the English model, I'm not sure how closely that would have been aligned to the French system but it did not sound like it would have French union executive representation on it like the LNR does.

In the shaky isles the professional pyramid tapers to a point with the almighty All Blacks. In France the feeling for country is no more important than the sense of fierce local identity spawned at myriad clubs concentrated in the southwest. Progress is achieved by a nonchalant shrug and the wide sweep of nuanced negotiation, rather than driven from the top by a single intense focus.

Yes, it is pretty much a 'representative' selection system at every level, but these union's are having to fight for their existence against the regime that is NZR, and are currently going through their own battle, just as France has recently as I understand it. A single focus, ala the French game, might not be the best outcome for rugby as a whole.


For pure theatre, it is a wonderful article so far. I prefer 'Ntamack New Zealand 2022' though.

The young Crusader still struggles to solve the puzzle posed by the shorter, more compact tight-heads at this level but he had no problem at all with Colombe.

It was interesting to listen to Manny during an interview on Maul or Nothing, he citied that after a bit of banter with the All Black's he no longer wanted one of their jersey's after the game. One of those talks was an eye to eye chat with Tamaiti Williams, there appear to be nothing between the lock and prop, just a lot of give and take. I thought TW angled in and caused Taylor to pop a few times, and that NZ were lucky to be rewarded.

f you have a forward of 6ft 8ins and 145kg, and he is not at all disturbed by a dysfunctional set-piece, you are in business.

He talked about the clarity of the leadership that helped alleviate any need for anxiety at the predicaments unfolding before him. The same cannot be said for New Zealand when they had 5 minutes left to retrieve a match winning penalty, I don't believe. Did the team in black have much of a plan at any point in the game? I don't really call an autonomous 10 vehicle they had as innovative. I think Razor needs to go back to the dealer and get a new game driver on that one.

Vaa’i is no match for his power on the ground. Even in reverse, Meafou is like a tractor motoring backwards in low gear, trampling all in its path.

Vaa'i actually stops him in his tracks. He gets what could have been a dubious 'tackle' on him?

A high-level offence will often try to identify and exploit big forwards who can be slower to reload, and therefore vulnerable to two quick plays run at them consecutively.

Yes he was just standing on his haunches wasn't he? He mentioned that in the interview, saying that not only did you just get up and back into the line to find the opposition was already set and running at you they also hit harder than anything he'd experienced in the Top 14. He was referring to New Zealands ultra-physical, burst-based Super style of course, which he was more than a bit surprised about. I don't blame him for being caught out.


He still sent the obstruction back to the repair yard though!

What wouldn’t the New Zealand rugby public give to see the likes of Mauvaka and Meafou up front..

Common now Nick, don't go there! Meafou showed his Toulouse shirt and promptly got his citizenship, New Zealand can't have him, surely?!?


As I have said before with these subjects, really enjoy your enthusiasm for their contribution on the field and I'd love to see more of their shapes running out for Vern Cotter and the like styled teams.

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