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Warren Gatland position 'on the line' and 4 other Wales talking point

By PA
Wales head coach Warren Gatland/ PA

France and Wales kick off the 2025 Guinness Six Nations when they meet in Paris on Friday night.

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Les Bleus are overwhelming favourites to continue Wales’ long Test match losing run that began against 2023 World Cup quarter-final opponents Argentina.

Here, the PA news agency looks at some key talking points ahead of the game.

Struggling Wales’ dirty dozen
It is nigh on impossible at the moment to talk about Wales without referencing a record run of 12 successive Test match defeats. Wales have not won a Test since beating Georgia at the 2023 World Cup, losing to Australia (three times), South Africa (twice), France, Fiji, Argentina, Italy, England, Scotland and Ireland. They are a 20-1 chance with most bookmakers to topple Les Bleus, which underlines a gulf in form and expectation, and Wales have also suffered six losses on the bounce against France. Wales’ Six Nations record in Paris is decent, with a 50 per cent success-rate from the last six visits, but it would represent a colossal upset if they pull it off this time.

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    Warren Gatland under the pump
    Wales head coach Gatland has accepted publicly that change is likely if signs of improvement are not shown during the Six Nations. Welsh Rugby Union chief executive Abi Tierney said Gatland’s position was “on the line” as a review into Wales’ miserable Autumn Nations Series campaign commenced earlier this season. He was given the green light to continue, with another detailed WRU assessment planned after Wales finish the tournament at home to England in mid-March. Wales have won just six of 24 Tests since Gatland returned for a second stint in charge – his first spell delivered Six Nations titles, Grand Slams and two World Cup semi-final appearances – and the heat is on.

    Tomos Williams is Wales’ catalyst
    If Wales are to make an impression on opening night, then scrum-half Williams will undoubtedly be a driving force. The Gloucester number nine has been in majestic form for his club, helping to underpin a concerted Gallagher Premiership play-off push since moving to Kingsholm last summer. He is the attacking focal point in terms of Gloucester’s all-court game and he signed off for the Six Nations with another blistering try-scoring display as the west country club beat play-off rivals Leicester 38-31. Williams has an ability to turn defence into attack in the blink of an eye and his importance to Wales cannot be understated.

    Wales should benefit from experience
    Although 104 times-capped number eight Taulupe Faletau’s long injury absence from Test rugby continues, there is a seasoned feel to Gatland’s selection in a number of areas. Full-back Liam Williams and wing Josh Adams – 151 Wales caps between them – are back, while a reunited centre pairing of Nick Tompkins and Owen Watkin is one that certainly knows the ropes. Exeter lock Dafydd Jenkins, who captained Wales in last season’s Six Nations, also returns following knee and shoulder operations last summer. There are close to 500 caps in Wales’ starting line-up, which is more than for a number of games during the past year or so, and that has to be beneficial in terms of coping with the cauldron that awaits.

    Antoine Dupont back on Six Nations stage
    Among the many headline acts on show at Stade de France, none is more in demand than France captain Antoine Dupont. Widely regarded as the world’s best player, he returns to the Six Nations arena after missing last season’s tournament while he concentrated on the Paris Olympics and being part of France’s sevens squad. A year on, he can admire a gold medal, in addition to helping his club Toulouse land a Champions Cup and French league double, while also orchestrating Les Bleus’ autumn victory over New Zealand. Scrum-half Dupont’s mere presence will lift the decibel level at Stade de France and Wales face a Herculean task trying to silence it.

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    Spew_81 3 hours ago
    'He wants players to be able to play four positions': Former All Black critiques Robertson's strategy

    I have the selection opinion of ‘chuck them in the deep end, see if they swim’. Starting Mo’unga in the third test, in a series they had already won, would’ve been a perfect opportunity.


    I also made it clear I would’ve kept Cruden in the mix, up until the end of RWC 2019. As he was a game manager. He isn’t Mo’unga which disproves your statement: “or should I say anyone not Mo’unga”. I would’ve had Mo’unga in the wider training group and in the end of year tours. At 10 I would’ve had: Cruden, B Barrett, and McKenzie (as McKenzie can cover: 9, 10, 14, and 15); but as Cruden was out of favour and departed, I would’ve had Mo’unga, B Barrett, and McKenzie as the 10 hierarchy; as Mo’unga is a game manager.


    McKenzie had to have made his intentions clear that he wanted to transfer to 10 at least as far back as 2018. Otherwise, he wouldn’t have played at 10 for the Chiefs in 2018. The Chiefs had other options at 10. Why play someone out of position in Super Rugby, when they didn’t have to - unless McKenzie wanted to be the All Blacks 10 after B Barrett left? McKenzie played 10 in high school and never hid the fact that he wanted to have a shot at 10 and the highest level (nothing wrong with that). Also, McKenzie played 10 for the Maori All Blacks earlier in 2017:


    [January 18, 2018] “It [10] has been a position I've always played and in the last few years I've played at 15, but now there is the opportunity to play at 10 and its one I'm looking forward too.


    Damian McKenzie targets first-five role for Chiefs ahead of Super Rugby season | Stuff


    Hansen seemed to think that McKenzie was a valid option at 10: “In World Cup squads, versatility is king. McKenzie's Test career has been at fullback; next year at the Chiefs he will be their first-choice fly-half”.


    'When you're afraid you start second guessing yourself' - The Damian McKenzie All Blacks Interview - ESPN


    It makes sense that Hansen and Foster’s logic was that McKenzie would follow the same path as B Barrett did to the 10 jersey for the All Blacks; from 15 to 10.


    Why would McKenzie move positions from 15 to 10 at Super Rugby level, if he didn’t want to play 10 for the All Blacks? Just to be a better ‘dual playmaker’? He clearly wanted the All Blacks 10 jersey (nothing wrong with that). Hansen wanted a dual playmaker system, that’s why he wanted two 10’s that could play 15. It removes the need for a 10 on the bench (Cruden or Mo’unga) that’s why Hansen didn’t give Cruden a real shot at reclaiming the 10 jersey, and why he didn’t develop Mo’unga - until McKenzie got injured out of RWC 2019. This all fits the established narrative. Hansen could’ve had Mo’unga at 10 and B Barrett at 15 and had two pivots with different styles.


    I brought it up as I it shows that Hansen and Foster would rather have a second 10, that played like the incumbent 10, instead of a game manager at 10. That was one of my main points. I’m saying that was the reason why Mo’unga wasn’t given a proper chance to develop into the international 10 he could’ve been.


    All I’ve said is that I don’t think Hansen and Foster made the best choice, in hindsight. One of each type of 10 would’ve offered more options, making the job harder for opposition defense coaches. But without the benefit of parallel universes, where all the alternative ideas could play out, no one will really know.


    I believe what the information shows, and what seems to be plausible, based on that information. There can be many, sometimes contradictory, conclusions that can be drawn from the same information. Without reading the minds of all involved we can just speculate based of the information that we have.


    I brought those facts up to as I believe that both Hansen and Foster didn’t really want Mo’unga at 10 and only used him at 10 when they ran out of other ideas (which they both did). Foster and Hansen would’ve had long term planning discussions while Hansen was the main coach and Foster was the assistant. The next 10, after B Barrett would’ve been discussed during the 2016-2019 cycle as B Barrett (while very good) didn’t have the ability to consistently manage the really tight games (I’m not sure any 10, even Carter, could do it alone against the developed rush defenses that are common now). Also, as with any long term planning, they would’ve been thinking about B Barrett’s eventual replacement. They seemed to want another player who played like B Barrett.


    Hansen and Foster seemed to be grooming McKenzie as the replacement 10. No wonder Mo’unga chose not to die for the team, and made sure he would be set for life by the time RWC 2027 comes around.


    I have shown my reasoning and the information that led to those conclusions. If you have contrary information, post it, I’d be interested to see it. I’m happy to change my mind. I am very interested to discuss this type of thing, especially when someone has different views. It makes the discussion more interesting. I am happy to agree to disagree on this. You make some good comments, I’m sure we will sometimes agree and sometimes disagree in future :)


    [Bonus Comment] Also, here’s an idea that is a bit left field that you can sink your teeth into. McKenzie should’ve made his primary position as a 9, covering: 10, 14, and 15 (McKenzie has been seen as valid 9 cover, he played 9 when Perenara got sin binned in Wellington, vs France in 2018). Start Aaron Smith and have Mo’unga at 10 and Barrett at 15; bring on McKenzie with 20 minutes to go. Three playmakers. That would’ve been a nightmare for defense coaches to defend against. Imagine A Savea taking the ball off the back of a mid-field scrum on the 22, with those three options to offload to. You can’t rush all three players. That is the way to beat a rush defense, create too many options to cover; but you need a 10 who is a game manager that can take advantage of the options.

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