A prediction for the 33-man Springboks Rugby World Cup squad

Spare a thought for Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus. Whether you’re reading this before or after the Springboks’ match against Argentina in Buenos Aires, the minds of the two old pals will be filled with questions that have no obvious answer.

Do you place faith in specialists or gamble on versatility? Can you bank on the busted knee of an inspirational leader or do you rip the bandaid and go for someone who can promise 80 minutes of action? Is there such a thing as a natural fly-half or can any ball player do a holding job? Are World Cups won with a little bit of inspiration from an ageing warhorse or can a squad ill-afford to carry a liability through the tournament?

To avoid turning this piece into a tome the length of a World Cup winning coach’s autobiography, we’ve condensed this conundrum into six key questions and tried to answer them in the way that we’d go about things, and the way that we think the Boks’ brains trust will lean.

Fixture

Internationals

Argentina

13 - 24

Full-time

South Africa

All Stats and Data

Stick or twist on broken bodies
If Siya Kolisi and Handre Pollard were fit, they’d be the first names on the list of 33 tasked with defending the Springboks’ World Cup crown. The former is not just the most impressive captain the side has ever fielded, he’s also one of the most dynamic loose forwards in the wide trams and a menace when the ball starts seeing some air. The latter is the most accomplished South African 10 in the professional era.

But, and this is a big but, neither are fit. Kolisi hasn’t played for the Boks all year and Pollard last donned the green and gold in August 2022. Risking one place for them would be a gamble. Making room for both, and effectively taking a squad of 31, seems ludicrous.

Kolisi should go to France no matter what. Even if he doesn’t play a single minute, his presence alone would add value. Perhaps this is whimsical nonsense but there are enough South Africans who believe in the power of the Springbok narrative and a good few of them represent or coach the team. Kolisi’s words, as much as his tackles and clear-outs, have contributed to recent successes.

Pollard should only go if he can prove his fitness. If he can’t then the inexperienced Manie Libbok and the versatile, but flawed, Damian Willemse must be trusted to fill the sizable void. Taking Pollard in the hope he comes good would send a message to his deputies that they are not fully backed by the coaches.

There are concerns in other positions as well. Lood de Jager is the Springboks’ line-out general but illness has curtailed his comeback trail after a prolonged absence due to a shoulder injury. He started the Test against the All Blacks on 15 July but a lack of match practice is a worry. Ox Nche is also fighting a race against time. But these two important forwards should be fine once the team is assembled.

Battle in the centres
There are many ways to get over the gainline and both Damian de Allende and Andre Esterhuizen do so in their own way. One uses pumping leg drives and clever weight shifts while the other bulldozes over would-be tacklers from smart scything runs. This is a derivative analysis of two elite athletes but often the vanity of small differences determines who plays.

Both will likely go to the World Cup but there is space for just one in any match-day 23. The same is less true for the two men vying for the number 13 jersey. That there is competition at outside centre has more to do with the drop-off in form from Lukhanyo Am since his injury return and less to do with Jesse Kriel’s reliability. Am was staking a claim to be South Africa’s best 13 in the professional era less than three years ago but he has looked a shadow of his former self, though he had set an extraordinarily high bar. Like Kriel, though, he can operate on the wing which means his, and Kriel’s spot in the camp is secure.

Is there a need for a cheerleader?
Kolisi might not be the only member of the group who contributes more with his words and energy than actions on the pitch. Duane Vermeulen is no slouch, but at 37-years-old, he is the oldest Springbok in the broader group. He still packs a punch, but with younger players able to fill in at No. 8 should Wiese need a break, Nienaber must consider the value of an ageing player.

There is precedent, though. Bobby Skinstad in 2007 and Schalk Brits in 2019 were valued squad players in more ways than one. They stepped up against smaller teams but, more importantly, amplified the abstract variables such as team culture and pride in a group that is fuelled by its own mythology. They spoke to the press, engaged with fans and ultimately put a smiling face on their respective World Cup campaigns. It would be too simplistic to suggest their presence secured the Springboks’ second and third World Cup titles, but it would be remiss to downplay their roles. Perhaps Vermeulen could do the same.

Three spots for five nines
Faf de Klerk seems stuck in an antiquated game plan that he no longer executes with metronomic efficiency. Grant Williams and Jaden Hendrikse are injured. Cobus Reinach has yet to fully win the faith of the coaching staff and Herschel Jantjies has dropped down the pecking order.

In other words, the country of Fourie du Preez and Joost van der Westhuizen has a plethora of scrumhalf options but no obvious candidate. De Klerk is the most assured of a spot. Nienaber and Erasmus have shown loyalty to the victorious group of four years ago and no other half-back understands the Springboks game plan like de Klerk.

If Williams and Hendrikse were both fit they’d likely complete the set, but Reinach’s pace, and his ability to cover wing should he be needed, means he’s at least a contender. Unfortunately for Jantjies, every other rival is at least partially better in most key metrics and will likely miss out.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

1

Draws

0

Wins

4

Average Points scored

18

32

First try wins

60%

Home team wins

80%

Is there value in versatility?
Given the Springboks’ tough draw and arduous route to the final, injuries to important figures will be factored into the equation. And if Pollard and Kolisi are included as expected, players who can operate across multiple positions will be invaluable.

Franco Mostert, Kwagga Smith, Deon Fourie and Damian Willemse cover 10 places in the starting XV on their own. Add in Pieter-Steph du Toit and Canan Moodie and you’ve got even more cover. Moodie’s inclusion might be bad news for Makazole Mapimpi who has already been written off by a few journalists and fans on social media.

Klein or Orie
This is a straight shootout. Marvin Orie has been backed by the Boks’ coaches for some time now and has become an integral member of the second row. He hasn’t nudged the trio of Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager and RG Snyman off their perch, and Mostert’s all-round game might make Orie surplus to requirement in the match-day 23, but he’s earned his spot in the wider cohort.

But Jean Kleyn’s recent allegiance switch has thrown a spanner in the works. The Munster lock and former Ireland international brings obvious pedigree. He poses a greater physical threat than Orie and is arguably better suited to the style of rugby they’ll look to play.

But loyalty has to count for something. The Springboks have espoused an ethos that promotes the organisation as more than just a rugby team. Forget the skin colour of the players – which will be an impossible task for some supporters – Orie’s longer investment in the project, and the longer investment in him, might tip the selection in his favour. However, a higher degree of pragmatism would tilt the scale the other way.

Rugbypass’s Springboks squad of 33:

Props: Ox Nche, Steven Kitshoff, Frans Malherbe, Trevor Nyakane, Thomas du Toit, Vincent Koch

Hookers: Malcolm Marx, Bongi Mbonambi

Second rows: Eben Etzebeth, RG Snyman, Jean Kleyn, Lood de Jager

Back rows: Siya Kolisi (c), Jasper Wiese, Duane Vermeulen, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kwagga Smith, Deon Fourie, Franco Mostert

Scrumhalves: Cobus Reinach, Grant Williams, Faf de Klerk

Flyhalves: Manie Libbok, Handre Pollard

Centres: Damian de Allende, Andre Esterhuizen, Lukhanyo Am, Jesse Kriel

Outside backs: Makazole Mapimpi, Cheslin Kolbe, Willie le Roux, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Damian Willemse