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The European Champions Cup kicks off this week with teams from the English Premiership, French Top 14 and the Irish-Welsh-Scottish-Italian Pro 12 vying for the title currently held by Saracens. The London side are again playing some clinical rugby, but will they be able to hold on to their crown? James Harrington sizes up the five pools to predict which teams will reach the last eight*.
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POOL 1
Glasgow Warriors | Leicester Tigers | Munster | Racing 92
Sorry, Munstermen. Irish by birth and Munster by the grace of god you may be, but your glory years are long behind you, and Thomond Park is a crumbling shadow of its former fortress self. The two-time champions’ reward for sneaking into this year’s Champions Cup party is a slot in Pool 1, where Top 14 champions and last season’s losing Champions Cup finalists Racing 92 lie in wait, alongside last season’s losing Premiership and Champions Cup semi-finalists Leicester. Oh, and 2015 Pro12 champions Glasgow, who everyone really should respect more than they do. But, no one will and, in the final reckoning, the Warriors won’t matter. This is between Racing and Leicester – and the moneybags Top 14 side have the edge. Sadly for Leicester, they look like they could miss the quarter-final cut by the cruelest of narrow margins.
POOL 2
Connacht | Toulouse | Wasps | Zebre
Pool 2 is the easiest of the five Champions Cup groups to call. You can narrow it down with barely a thought to a straight fight for top spot between (in alphabetical order) Toulouse and Wasps. A little more imagination – about enough to open a closed door – should have you reaching the conclusion that the English side will finish at the head of the Pool 2 pile. It’s also safe to say that surprise Pro12 champions Connacht are also likely to have their say on the outcome. The difference between first and second is likely to be how the Top 14 and Premierships outfits fare in the west of Ireland, and how close to 100 they get against token Italian side and pool whipping boys Zebre. The only problem in the Wasps equation is that their last pool game, at the back end of January, is in Italy. It can be unpleasantly cold in Parma in January – just ask Toulouse, who laboured to a frozen 16-6 win there in early 2014.
POOL 3
Toulon | Sale Sharks | Saracens | Scarlets
Once upon a time, not very long ago, even before the pool stages kicked off it was hard to look past Toulon as champions-in-waiting. Their golden age, between 2012 and 2014, saw them lift three European crowns in a row, as well as the Top 14 title in 2014. Now, things are more uncertain at Stade Felix Mayol. The Diego Dominguez era has got off to what could be most politely described as an inauspicious start. It will be interesting to see if former Bath coach Mike Ford, who has come in with a brief to run pretty much everything while nominal boss Dominguez nods sagely and tells people “do what Mike says,” can turn things around – and, if so, how quickly. Frankly, it will have to be pretty fast. Toulon open their account at home to defending champions Saracens, who eased to the top of the English Premiership with a convincing win over their biggest domestic opponents Wasps on Sunday. Don’t bother looking beyond these two to progress from Pool 3. Sale and Scarlets have neither the firepower or the nous to mount a serious challenge.
POOL 4
Castres Olympique | Leinster | Montpellier | Northampton Saints
The two French sides – Jake White’s hard-to-beat, hard-to-like Montpellier, and the prog rock-sounding Christophe Urios project that is Castres Olympique – are the rival kingmakers of Pool 4. Both Top 14 clubs are returning to Europe’s top table after a period in the Challenge Cup wilderness, and how much trouble they cause possible quarterfinalists Northampton and Leinster will decide whether the English and / or Irish side reach the knockout phase. The fact is, although both will put up a better show than Castres managed the last time they were involved in this competition (when they were, frankly, an embarrassment) neither French outfit is likely to trouble the quarterfinal schedulers, leaving three-time champions Leinster and millennium winners Northampton to scrap for the points they need to reach the last eight. Northampton should make it – and, given a fair wind and a big slice of luck, Leinster could become the Pro 12’s sole representatives in the knockout stage.
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POOL 5
Clermont Auvergne | Bordeaux Begles | Exeter Chiefs | Ulster
If Pool 5 has a puzzlingly familiar look, that’s because three of these teams met in Pool 2 of last season’s competition. Back then, Exeter were as delighted and surprised as anyone to reach the quarterfinals courtesy of a remarkable final pool game between Clermont and Bordeaux at Stade Marcel Michelin. The hosts only needed a point to ensure qualification. But, with less than a minute on the clock at the end of an epic encounter and Clermont 28-37 down, Morgan Parra took a quick tap penalty from in front of the posts when a calmly slotted and straightforward kick would have been good enough. You have to favour Clermont to be in the reckoning at the business end of the competition, but they are just frustrating enough, while Exeter and former champions Ulster are more than good enough to make this by far the most difficult of the five pools to call. Bordeaux are the dark horses – for the second season in a row they sneaked into the competition through a back door. They won a play-off at the death against Gloucester to reach last season’s competition, and have Challenge Cup champions Montpellier to thank for their place in this season’s tournament. They can, and probably will, spring the odd surprise and cause the occasional scare, but their interest in the competition is likely to end in January 2017.
So, there you have it. To finish things off neatly, here are the eight teams you should look forward to seeing in the quarterfinals. Last season, the quarter-finals featured five English and three French clubs. This season, expect to see four Top 14 sides (Toulouse, Toulon, Clermont, Racing 92), three Premiership outfits (Wasps, Saracens, Northampton) and, for purely romantic reasons, Leinster.
* James pleads: “Please don’t put the rent money on these predictions”
