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All Blacks’ 2024 schedule: 10 is the magic number in Scott Roberton’s first year
By Finn Morton
It’s a big year for the All Blacks. Some might see that as a redundant statement – it’s always a big year for the men in black – but there’s something a little different in the air after the heartbreak of last year’s Rugby World Cup final.
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Ian Foster is gone. The formerly under-fire coach bowed out with a World Cup runners-up medal draped around his neck at Stade de France last October. There was no fairytale finish for the man affectionally known as ‘Fozzie.’
But the new dawn of a new era is upon New Zealand Rugby. Much to the delight of many, Scott Robertson was named as Fosters’ successor in early 2023.
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Seven-time Super Rugby champion coach Scott Robertson is considered the man who can take the All Blacks back to where they belong: the top.
Robertson gathered 22 All Blacks for a brief two-day camp in Auckland early in the new year which was a sign of intent, determination and urgency. Test match footy isn’t that far away.
The All Blacks’ playing future in 2024 was revealed to the public on Thursday morning. It’s an intriguing 14-match season which includes a trip to the U.S of A to play the Flying Fijians.
It’s exciting, but Robertson’s judgement is nigh. By the time the All Blacks walk off the field after playing Italy on their Northern Tour – their last dance for the year – the new-look All Blacks will either be scrutinised or praised.
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For it to be the latter, it’s time to be realistic. 10 is the magic number for Scott Robertson’s All Blacks in 2024 – that should be widely seen as their winning pass mark.
Robertson’s first two Tests will be against Steve Borthwick’s England during the July internationals. New Zealand will host their traditional foe in Dunedin on July 6 and Auckland on the 13th.
The All Blacks need to win both. No ifs, buts or maybes, losing is not an option.
If it hadn’t been for a famous Springboks fightback in one of last year’s World Cup semi-finals, England would’ve played the All Blacks in the big one. They’re two very good teams – England could very well take out the Six Nations – but winning on home soil is a must.
Since the start of the new World Cup cycle in 2020, the All Blacks failed to win four Tests in New Zealand. They only played 15 – losing more than a quarter of their Tests (26.67). It started with a shock draw to the Wallabies in Wellington, included two defeats to Ireland, and an upset against Argentina in Christchurch.
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For the All Blacks to return to world No. 1 status, that needs to change.
Then the All Blacks head north to the Land of the Free where they’ll take on the Flying Fijians in San Diego.
“The Fijians know their way around the world, and they’ll come out from everywhere,” coach Robertson said in a statement. “I know a lot of Kiwis will make the trip as well.”
Fiji have never beaten the All Blacks in seven meetings and Robertson can’t afford for that to change. If the World Cup fan favourites did get the better of their heavily fancied opponents, it would be an upset that’d echo throughout rugby history forever.
But the caveat to all this is the grand stage that is America. A neutral Test in the USA can be distracting for the All Blacks – let’s not forget what happened in 2016 against Ireland in Chicago.
Still, the All Blacks should be three from three at this stage.
But this is where it gets tricky.
After starting their Rugby Championship campaign with two wins over Argentina on New Zealand soil, the All Blacks will come up against the two-time defending world champions away.
The Springboks will host their arch-rivals in Johannesburg and Cape Town, and they’ll be very tough to beat at either of those venues. Winning at altitude at Ellis Park would have to be considered far more likely than getting one over the Boks at DHL Stadium.
At the very best, the All Blacks will split that series 1-1.
Then there’s the Wallabies. It’s hard to know what to say about the men in gold.
Having moved on from Eddie Jones and the disappointment of last year’s World Cup pool stage exit, Rugby Australia has signed Joe Schmidt as the Wallabies’ new head coach – a major coup for Aussie rugby.
Schmidt will transform the Wallabies in ways that his predecessors Dave Rennie and Eddie Jones couldn’t. This Wallabies team could even challenge for Rugby Championship glory – you can screenshot this, too.
Expect the Wallabies to get the better of the All Blacks in Sydney – ending New Zealand’s four-match winning streak in the Harbour City. But the All Blacks have a history of Trans-Tasman dominance across the ditch, and fans will want to see that continue.
The All Blacks will likely retain the Bledisloe Cup, and, if the rest plays out as expected, they’ll have won seven from nine Tests by the end of September.
The Northern Tour will be tough. After playing Japan in Yokohama, the New Zealanders will take on some of the world’s best teams.
Many would consider Japan and England the underdogs in the first two Tests of the All Blacks[ trip north, but Ireland and France at home – venues TBC – will be overwhelming favourites themselves.
The All Blacks have never lost to Italy and that shouldn’t change in 2024.
By the end of 2024, the All Blacks should’ve won at least 10 Test matches. That’s the pass mark. That’s what fans should expect.
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All Blacks vs England at Dunedin’s Forsyth Barr Stadium on July 6
All Blacks vs England at Auckland’s Eden Park on July 13
All Blacks vs Fiji at San Diego’s Snapdragon Stadium on July 20
Lipovitan D-Rugby Championship
All Blacks vs Argentina at Wellington’s Sky Stadium on August 10
All Blacks vs Argentina at Auckland’s Eden Park on August 17
South Africa vs All Blacks at Johannesburg’s Ellis Park on August 31
South Africa vs all Blacks at Cape Town’s DHL Stadium on September 7
Australia vs All Blacks at Sydney’s Accor Stadium on September 21
All Blacks vs Australia at Wellington’s Sky Stadium on September 28
Lipovitan D-Challenge Cup
Japan vs All Blacks at Yokohama’s Nissan Stadium on October 26
Northern Tour
England vs All Blacks at London’s Twickenham on November 2
Ireland vs All Blacks at TBC on November 9
France vs All Blacks at TBC on November 16
Italy vs All Blacks at TBC on November 23
This article is a reasonable attempt at treating the collective HIA effects we got from the (unaffectionately) Foster era.
At a win rate of 69.5% (rounded to 70) Foster ranks 17th out of the 17 ABs coaches with 30+ tests.
Of the 10 ABs coaches with 40+ tests, Foster ranks 10th. The others are over 80% with two in the 90s.
In the overall rankings of the 25 ABs coaches, Foster is 20th.
No wonder we're jittery leading into the Razor era. All teams face the same post RWC rebuild issues, but for us, our psyche has been dinged up. I call it “The Foster Effect”. And thus the schedule looks more ominous than usual.
In actual fact, the ABs schedule looks very much like business as usual, with two tests v Japan & Fiji added. We’ve only had one perfect season, 2013, saved by an 85th minute try & a two attempt conversion, v Ireland. So yes, losses are definitely on the cards.
But what a challenge. Bring it on!!!!!
10 wins would be great but if there’s a year to experiment it’s this one. I wouldn’t hold a couple more losses against the man if he took some liberties with the combos and bench composition.
I’m exhausted just reading the schedule…
He is taking over the team that should have won the RWC final. But there are some big names gone. It is a chance to build a new team to dominate the sport.
Ireland, France, England, & NZ all think they “should have won” the RWC don’t they?
Grueling 14 test matches in 4 & 1/2 months.
This is that moment you realize that the silver lake money was supposed to help but just made it worse.
Do the players have to sell a pint of blood every week as well?
I am sure there are nut farms with less nuts that this.
Wayneo thats a pretty standard year for the ABs from a number of tests perspective. I dont like that we have to play 2 tests in SA coz they never seem to play 2 in NZ so where is the equality? Apart from that tho its business as usual really.
How has Silver Lake “made it worse”?
This is a business as usual schedule (home series+TRC+NH Tour) with two extra tests v Japan & Fiji.
Are you saying we shouldn’t play the extra tests v Japan & Fiji?
It is one heck of a challenging schedule for the AllBlacks. But there is no doubt Scott Robertson is the right man to take over the AB’s. 7 titles with the Crusaders, 3 with Canterbury and 1 with NZ Under 20 . A great guy too know, who knows how to get the best out of young men. He was part of a great era winning 4 titles as a player with the Crusaders too, 1998-2002.