Northern Edition

Select Edition

Northern Northern
Southern Southern
Global Global
New Zealand New Zealand
France France

Exodus XV vs the class of '24: How the All Blacks' future squad stacks up

Will Jordan and Beauden Barrett. (Photo by John Davidson/Photosport)

The end of an era approaches, and while not the most successful era by All Blacks standards, one that submitted some legendary names into New Zealand Rugby history.

ADVERTISEMENT

A few young guns join the veteran talent heading offshore in 2024, some with the potential to return while others look to see out their playing days with that extra Euro or Yen in pocket.

For all the vacated jerseys there’s an abundance of hungry hopefuls training for their shot at the next level. So, how does an XV of departing players stack up against those who will define 2024 and beyond?

Video Spacer

Video Spacer

Well, let’s take a look. Here’s an All Blacks exodus XV:

  1. Ofa Tu’ungafasi
  2. Dane Coles
  3. Nepo Laulala
  4. Brodie Retallick
  5. Sam Whitelock
  6. Shannon Frizell
  7. Ardie Savea  
  8. Pita Gus Sowakula
  9. Aaron Smith
  10. Richie Mo’unga
  11. Leicester Fainga’anuku
  12. Jack Goodhue
  13. Alex Nankivell
  14. Julian Savea
  15. Beauden Barrett

Bench: Alex Hodgeman, Andrew Makalio, Josh Dickson, Marino Mikaele-Tu’u, Brad Weber, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Bryn Gatland

Coach: Ian Foster

Average Age: 33

Average experience: 58 Tests

Filling in some of the gaps with former All Blacks and All Blacks XV selections, New Zealand could field quite the squad made up entirely of players heading offshore or retiring in 2024.

Even including the zero Test caps of Alex Nankivell and the two of Leicester Fainga’anuku, there’s an average experience of 58 caps in the starting XV.

Related

And for comparison, here’s how the best of the rest look (based on current All Blacks selections):

  1. Ethan de Groot
  2. Samisoni Taukei’aho
  3. Tyrel Lomax
  4. Scott Barrett
  5. Tupou Vaa’i
  6. Samipeni Finau
  7. Sam Cane
  8. Luke Jacobson
  9. Cam Roigard
  10. Damian McKenzie
  11. Caleb Clarke
  12. Jordie Barrett
  13. Rieko Ioane
  14. Mark Telea
  15. Will Jordan

Bench: Fletcher Newell, Codie Taylor, Tamaiti Williams, Patrick Tuipulotu, Dalton Papali’i, Finlay Christie, Anton Lienert-Brown, Shaun Stevenson

ADVERTISEMENT

Coach: Scott Robertson

Average age: 26

Average experience: 28 Tests

31-year-old Sam Cane and his 86 caps may be a bit of an outlier in this starting XV, the All Black captain’s current contract runs through until 2025, at which point he’ll have a decision to make. The rest are all at an age that could easily see them hold or hit their primes during the next World Cup cycle.

That being said, were this squad to front up at the 2027 Rugby World Cup, their average age of 30 would be slightly beyond what previous tournaments have proven to be optimal. For context, the Rugby World Cup winning sides of 2011 and 2015 had an average age of 28 and 29 respectively.

Compared to the outgoing crew, the next generation squad feature nine players that started in the All Blacks’ final fixture of 2022 compared to the six from the leavers. Proving form favours the younger unit.

Eleven of the exodus XV make up the recently named 36-man Rugby Championship squad, the remaining 25 will be available for selection in 2024.

ADVERTISEMENT

What the farewell team have going for them is experience. Their 58-Test average is far closer to the magic number of 50 which is the average of World Cup-winning teams in the professional era.

Leicester Fainga’anuku lends some youth to the exodus team while Sam Cane offers experience to their opponents.

ADVERTISEMENT

LIVE

{{item.title}}

Trending on RugbyPass

Comments

5 Comments
P
Pecos 539 days ago

I expect Scooter to be Razor's AB skipper so Cane will deffs be an outlier.

Also, a post RWC "exodus" team is an interesting but useless exercise.

m
mikejjules 539 days ago

The WC is still too young to be reading much into stats. Add in the 4 or 5 teams who had a chance of winning it and the subsequent journalistic experts who spout expertise post cup 6 is embarrassing.
So many closer games are decided by a whisker, 2 or 3 decisions, the bounce of the ball, and/or a fortuitous path that the diatribe that comes out after is plain nonsensical. Let's treat all world cups for what they are; a cheap commercial avenue to publicise the said sport.

H
Henry 540 days ago

Ardie Savea is having a sabbatical next year, meaning he is still eligible to play for the All Blacks, and shouldn't really be considered in the exodus team.

m
mknz 540 days ago

Ofa Tu'ungafasi is under contract with NZR for 2024.

There has been no official announcement about Shaun Stevenson's status for 2024.

Load More Comments

Join free and tell us what you really think!

Sign up for free
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest Features

Comments on RugbyPass

G
GrahamVF 23 minutes ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

"has SA actually EVER helped to develop another union to maturity like NZ has with Japan," yes - Argentina. You obviously don't know the history of Argentinian rugby. SA were touring there on long development tours in the 1950's

We continued the Junior Bok tours to the Argentine through to the early 70's

My coach at Grey High was Giepie Wentzel who toured Argentine as a fly half. He told me about how every Argentinian rugby club has pictures of Van Heerden and Danie Craven on prominent display. Yes we have developed a nation far more than NZ has done for Japan. And BTW Sa players were playing and coaching in Japan long before the Kiwis arrived. Fourie du Preez and many others were playing there 15 years ago.


"Isaac Van Heerden's reputation as an innovative coach had spread to Argentina, and he was invited to Buenos Aires to help the Pumas prepare for their first visit to South Africa in 1965.[1][2] Despite Argentina faring badly in this tour,[2] it was the start of a long and happy relationship between Van Heerden and the Pumas. Izak van Heerden took leave from his teaching post in Durban, relocated to Argentina, learnt fluent Spanish, and would revolutionise Argentine play in the late 1960s, laying the way open for great players such as Hugo Porta.[1][2] Van Heerden virtually invented the "tight loose" form of play, an area in which the Argentines would come to excel, and which would become a hallmark of their playing style. The Pumas repaid the initial debt, by beating the Junior Springboks at Ellis Park, and emerged as one of the better modern rugby nations, thanks largely to the talents of this Durban schoolmaster.[1]"


After the promise made by Junior Springbok manager JF Louw at the end of a 12-game tour to Argentina in 1959 – ‘I will do everything to ensure we invite you to tour our country’ – there were concerns about the strength of Argentinian rugby. South African Rugby Board president Danie Craven sent coach Izak van Heerden to help the Pumas prepare and they repaid the favour by beating the Junior Springboks at Ellis Park.

149 Go to comments
J
JW 6 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

149 Go to comments
TRENDING
TRENDING Ex-Wallaby explains why All Blacks aren’t at ‘panic stations’ under Razor Ex-Wallaby explains why All Blacks aren’t at ‘panic stations’
Search