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All Blacks face prospect of further World Rugby rankings drop

Jordie Barrett. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

The All Blacks could fall even further down World Rugby’s pecking order with a moderately heavy loss to the Springboks this weekend.

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Ian Foster’s side will fall to a new low of fifth – dropping below England – if they lose by more than 15 points in South Africa in Mbombela.

However, if they win on South African soil, they will supplant their hosts in third. The Boks – on the other hand – cannot improve on third place even with a victory by more than 15 points over NZ.

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Jacques Nienaber’s side’s rating will show the same as France at 89.41 but Les Bleus rating is higher when rounding up to three decimal places will see them hold on to the second spot.

In the other Rugby Championship match between the Wallabies and Los Pumas, Argentina will be the higher ranked of the two nations if they beat Australia, climbing two places to seventh with the Wallabies falling to a new low of eighth.

Dave Rennie’s side will drop to ninth if the margin of defeat is by more than 15 points. An Australian victory will not result in any positional changes for either team.

South Africa hand hooker Malcolm Marx a first start since August 2021 for what will be his 50th test, while scrum-half Faf de Klerk and winger Kurt-Lee Arendse also come into the starting line-up in place of Jaden Hendrikse and the injured Cheslin Kolbe.

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Blockbusting winger Caleb Clarke will make his first appearance for the All Blacks since November 2020 as one of four personnel changes to the starting line-up with Samisoni Taukei’aho, Angus Ta’avao and Scott Barrett the other players handed a start.

Australia welcome back Quade Cooper after injury and hand flanker Jed Holloway his test debut in a match that will see captain Michael Hooper become the third most-capped Wallabies player in history.

Michael Cheika’s Argentina, meanwhile, have rung the changes with only six players retained in their starting line-up from the series decider with Scotland with captain Julián Montoya, flanker Marcos Kremer, scrum-half Tomás Cubelli and winger Santiago Cordero among those returning.

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Comments

6 Comments
N
Noel 970 days ago

Thanks for that Kim ! Not sure when the Springboks last beat the ABs by as much as 15 points !!

I somehow sense you're kind of enjoying their current situation, even if sub-consciously -- and lets face it, you're not alone, just about every non-New Zealand rugby follower is [understandably if I'm to be honest] revelling in our topple from the top

We may slip further, but so too did the Springboks just 4 or 5 years ago, look at them now !

My simple message is: don't write the All Blacks off, ever -- it mightn't be this year, or next, but keep watching, the All Blacks will be back !!

J
Jack 970 days ago

Surely every international team faces the prospect of falling in the points ranking when they lose? Inspired article indeed or a yet another veiled dig at the ABs while they're on the ropes? Keep up the high quality sports journalism.

F
Flatcoat 970 days ago

Ratings mean nothing.

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JW 2 hours ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

It is now 22 years since Michael Lewis published his groundbreaking treatise on winning against the odds

I’ve never bothered looking at it, though I have seen a move with Clint as a scout/producer. I’ve always just figured it was basic stuff for the age of statistics, is that right?

Following the Moneyball credo, the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available

This is actually a great example of what I’m thinking of. This concept has abosolutely nothing to do with Moneyball, it is simple being able to realise how skillsets tie together and which ones are really revelant.


It sounds to me now like “moneyball” was just a necessity, it was like scienctest needing to come up with some random experiment to make all the other world scholars believe that Earth was round. The American sporting scene is very unique, I can totally imagine one of it’s problems is rich old owners not wanting to move with the times and understand how the game has changed. Some sort of mesiah was needed to convert the faithful.


While I’m at this point in the article I have to say, now the NRL is a sport were one would stand up and pay attention to the moneyball phenom. Like baseball, it’s a sport of hundreds of identical repetitions, and very easy to data point out.

the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available and look to get ahead of an unfair game in the areas it has always been strong: predictive intelligence and rugby ‘smarts’

Actually while I’m still here, Opta Expected Points analysis is the one new tool I have found interesting in the age of data. Seen how the random plays out as either likely, or unlikely, in the data’s (and algorithms) has actually married very closely to how I saw a lot of contests pan out.


Engaging return article Nick. I wonder, how much of money ball is about strategy as apposed to picks, those young fella’s got ahead originally because they were picking players that played their way right? Often all you here about is in regards to players, quick phase ruck ball, one out or straight up, would be were I’d imagine the best gains are going to be for a data driven leap using an AI model of how to structure your phases. Then moving to tactically for each opposition.

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