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All Blacks face prospect of further World Rugby rankings drop

Jordie Barrett. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)

The All Blacks could fall even further down World Rugby’s pecking order with a moderately heavy loss to the Springboks this weekend.

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Ian Foster’s side will fall to a new low of fifth – dropping below England – if they lose by more than 15 points in South Africa in Mbombela.

However, if they win on South African soil, they will supplant their hosts in third. The Boks – on the other hand – cannot improve on third place even with a victory by more than 15 points over NZ.

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Jacques Nienaber’s side’s rating will show the same as France at 89.41 but Les Bleus rating is higher when rounding up to three decimal places will see them hold on to the second spot.

In the other Rugby Championship match between the Wallabies and Los Pumas, Argentina will be the higher ranked of the two nations if they beat Australia, climbing two places to seventh with the Wallabies falling to a new low of eighth.

Dave Rennie’s side will drop to ninth if the margin of defeat is by more than 15 points. An Australian victory will not result in any positional changes for either team.

South Africa hand hooker Malcolm Marx a first start since August 2021 for what will be his 50th test, while scrum-half Faf de Klerk and winger Kurt-Lee Arendse also come into the starting line-up in place of Jaden Hendrikse and the injured Cheslin Kolbe.

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Blockbusting winger Caleb Clarke will make his first appearance for the All Blacks since November 2020 as one of four personnel changes to the starting line-up with Samisoni Taukei’aho, Angus Ta’avao and Scott Barrett the other players handed a start.

Australia welcome back Quade Cooper after injury and hand flanker Jed Holloway his test debut in a match that will see captain Michael Hooper become the third most-capped Wallabies player in history.

Michael Cheika’s Argentina, meanwhile, have rung the changes with only six players retained in their starting line-up from the series decider with Scotland with captain Julián Montoya, flanker Marcos Kremer, scrum-half Tomás Cubelli and winger Santiago Cordero among those returning.

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6 Comments
N
Noel 869 days ago

Thanks for that Kim ! Not sure when the Springboks last beat the ABs by as much as 15 points !!

I somehow sense you're kind of enjoying their current situation, even if sub-consciously -- and lets face it, you're not alone, just about every non-New Zealand rugby follower is [understandably if I'm to be honest] revelling in our topple from the top

We may slip further, but so too did the Springboks just 4 or 5 years ago, look at them now !

My simple message is: don't write the All Blacks off, ever -- it mightn't be this year, or next, but keep watching, the All Blacks will be back !!

J
Jack 869 days ago

Surely every international team faces the prospect of falling in the points ranking when they lose? Inspired article indeed or a yet another veiled dig at the ABs while they're on the ropes? Keep up the high quality sports journalism.

F
Flatcoat 869 days ago

Ratings mean nothing.

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JW 5 hours ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I had a look at the wiki article again, it's all terribly old data (not that I'd see reason for much change in the case of SA).

Number Of Clubs:

1526

Registered+Unregistered Players:

651146

Number of Referees:

3460

Pre-teen Male Players:

320842

Pre-teen Female Player:

4522

Teen Male Player:

199213

Teen Female Player:

4906

Senior Male Player:

113174

Senior Female Player:

8489

Total Male Player:

633229

Total Female Player:

17917


So looking for something new as were more concerned with adults specifically, so I had a look at their EOY Financial Review.

The total number of clubs remains consistent, with a marginal increase of 1% from 1,161 to 1,167. 8.1.

A comparative analysis of verified data for 2022 and 2023 highlights a marginal decline of 1% in the number of female players, declining from 6,801 to 6,723. Additionally, the total number of players demonstrates an 8% decrease, dropping from 96,172 to 88,828.

So 80k+ adult males (down from 113k), but I'm not really sure when youth are involved with SAn clubs, or if that data is for some reason not being referenced/included. 300k male students however (200k in old wiki data).


https://resources.world.rugby/worldrugby/document/2020/07/28/212ed9cf-cd61-4fa3-b9d4-9f0d5fb61116/P56-57-Participation-Map_v3.pdf has France at 250k registered but https://presse-europe1-fr.translate.goog/exclu-europe-1-le-top-10-des-sports-les-plus-pratiques-en-france-en-2022/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp has them back up at 300k registered.


The French number likely Students + Club, but everyone collects data different I reckon. In that WR pdf for instance a lot of the major nations have a heavily registered setup, were as a nation like England can penetrate into a lot more schools to run camps and include them in the reach of rugby. For instance the SARU release says only 29% of schools are reached by proper rugby programs, where as the 2million English number would be through a much much higer penetration I'd imagine. Which is thanks to schools having the ability to involve themselves in programs more than anything.


In any case, I don't think you need to be concerned with the numbers, whether they are 300 or 88k, there is obviously a big enough following for their pro scenes already to have enough quality players for a 10/12 team competition. They appear ibgger than France but I don't really by the lower English numbers going around.

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