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All Blacks fans wondering if XV versus Wales would have beaten England

Brad Weber, Ryan Crotty and Rieko Ioane of the All Blacks sing the national anthem before the quarter final win over Ireland (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

Steve Hansen has named his All Blacks team for their final match at the World Cup – the bronze final against Wales this Friday – and it sees a number of players set to play their final match for their country. 

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Captain Kieran Read starts his 127th and last Test and he is joined in the starting XV by Sonny Bill Williams, Ryan Crotty and Ben Smith, with Matt Todd on the bench. All are playing their final New Zealand game. 

Williams was on the bench against England and while Crotty and Smith have barely featured at RWC, the three of them add 187 caps to the starting XV and form a vastly more experienced backline alongside the returning Reiko Ioane. 

Hansen has preferred to select on form throughout this RWC, with George Bridge and Sevu Reece largely starting on the wings, and Anton Lienert-Brown and Jack Goodhue starting in the centres (although it would be unfair to say Lienert-Brown is inexperienced with 42 caps). 

But with the likes of Dane Coles and Sam Cane also starting this week in the pack after being on the bench for the semi-final loss go England, this is a much more experienced team. 

(Continue reading below…)

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Barring a few players, this has roughly been the group that Hansen has looked to over the past four years and while many have not been starters this RWC, fans on social media are questioning whether this team would have performed better against the English last Saturday. 

This is the eternal question as to whether coaches should pick players based on form or experience. While this is purely hypothetical, the players with more caps under their belt may have known how to overcome an insatiable England side. 

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Of course, hindsight is a wonderful thing and it would be fair to say that some of these players in the XV versus Wales went to Japan purely on reputation rather than anything they have shown for the All Blacks this year. 

But it has not stopped fans from wondering ‘what if’. This is what has been said: 

https://twitter.com/CamTwothless/status/1189438417408364545?s=20

https://twitter.com/er_icc/status/1189371252462346240?s=20

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https://twitter.com/Rang8276/status/1189373501804670976?s=20

A strong riposte is expected this Friday from a wounded New Zealand team and with the added emotion of it being the final match for Hansen and a number of his players, an injury-plagued Wales will need to be on top form. 

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J
JW 1 hour ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

Like I've said before about your idea (actually it might have been something to do with mine, I can't remember), I like that teams will a small sustainable league focus can gain the reward of more consistent CC involvement. I'd really like the most consistent option available.


Thing is, I think rugby can do better than footballs version. I think for instance I wanted everyone in it to think they can win it, where you're talking about the worst teams not giving up because they are so far off the pace we get really bad scoreline when that and giving up to concentrate on the league is happening together.


So I really like that you could have a way to remedy that, but personally I would want my model to not need that crutch. Some of this is the same problem that football has. I really like the landscape in both the URC and Prem, but Ireland with Leinster specifically, and France, are a problem IMO. In football this has turned CL pool stages in to simply cash cow fixtures for the also ran countries teams who just want to have a Real Madrid or ManC to lose to in their pool for that bumper revenue hit. It's always been a comp that had suffered for real interest until the knockouts as well (they might have changed it in recent years?).


You've got some great principles but I'm not sure it's going to deliver on that hard hitting impact right from the start without the best teams playing in it. I think you might need to think about the most minimal requirement/way/performance, a team needs to execute to stay in the Champions Cup as I was having some thougt about that earlier and had some theory I can't remember. First they could get entry by being a losing quarter finalist in the challenge, then putting all their eggs in the Champions pool play bucket in order to never finish last in their pool, all the while showing the same indifference to their league some show to EPCR rugby now, just to remain in champions. You extrapolate that out and is there ever likely to be more change to the champions cup that the bottom four sides rotate out each year for the 4 challenge teams? Are the leagues ever likely to have the sort of 'flux' required to see some variation? Even a good one like Englands.


I'd love to have a table at hand were you can see all the outcomes, and know how likely any of your top 12 teams are going break into Champions rubyg on th back it it are?

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f
fl 4 hours ago
‘The problem with this year’s Champions Cup? Too many English clubs’

"Right, so even if they were the 4 worst teams in Champions Cup, you'd still have them back by default?"

I think (i) this would literally never happen, (ii) it technically couldn't quite happen, given at least 1 team would qualify via the challenge cup, so if the actual worst team in the CC qualified it would have to be because they did really well after being knocked down to the challenge cup.

But the 13th-15th teams could qualify and to be fair I didn't think about this as a possibility. I don't think a team should be able to qualify via the Champions Cup if they finish last in their group.


Overall though I like my idea best because my thinking is, each league should get a few qualification spots, and then the rest of the spots should go to the next best teams who have proven an ability to be competitive in the champions cup. The elite French clubs generally make up the bulk of the semi-final spots, but that doesn't (necessarily) mean that the 5th-8th best French clubs would be competitive in a slimmed down champions cup. The CC is always going to be really great competition from the semis onwards, but the issue is that there are some pretty poor showings in the earlier rounds. Reducing the number of teams would help a little bit, but we could improve things further by (i) ensuring that the on-paper "worst" teams in the competition have a track record of performing well in the CC, and (ii) by incentivising teams to prioritise the competition. Teams that have a chance to win the whole thing will always be incentivised to do that, but my system would incentivise teams with no chance of making the final to at least try to win a few group stage matches.


"I'm afraid to say"

Its christmas time; there's no need to be afraid!

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