First All Blacks squad mainly based on reputation and potential

Form has been thrown out the window as Scott Robertson and his selectors in the first All Blacks squad of 2024.

The selections send a message that perhaps their was more to be had from a team that finished 4-10 on the year and missed the Oprah-style Super Rugby playoffs where nearly everyone gets a run.

It’s hard to argue a bunch of these picks were not made on reputation. Forget the 12-2 Hurricanes and the 12-2 Blues, two of the most powerful packs in New Zealand, the All Blacks have loaded up on Crusaders forwards.

Just three Hurricanes from this season made the squad, four including World Player of the Year Ardie Savea, who played out the season in Japan.

There was no room for Xavier Numia, an anchor of the dominant Canes’ scrum, but supersized Pasilio Tosi who spent most the season on the bench got the call.

No 8 Braydon Iose, a ball-carrying force, and openside Peter Lakai, statistically speaking one of the hardest men to tackle in Super Rugby, were surplus to requirements.

However, the All Blacks pack can’t be built on all carry and no clean. There was always going to be a squeeze in the loose forwards with a surplus of quality No 8 options around the country.

But for the Blues, who focused their entire plan around their front eight and stormed home to their first championship since 2003, registered just three selections up front.

The unofficial MVP of the season, Hoskins Sotutu, didn’t do enough to earn a recall and perhaps his role at the Blues just isn’t what the selectors want. Instead, firebrand rookie Wallace Sititi from the Chiefs will get a run.

Blindside flanker Akira Ioane, who announced his departure from New Zealand before the season’s end, was probably an early scratch.

Hooker Ricky Riccitelli, a servant of New Zealand rugby and a key cog of the Blues pack, couldn’t get a look in but young Crusaders’ hooker George Bell got the nod.

No disrespect to George Bell but this selection isn’t made on form or reputation but potential. His lineout throwing in the early stages of the season was catastrophic, with the Crusaders operating at sub-60 per cent and below in some games.

God save New Zealand if Bell is called upon to throw for the All Blacks this year.

The coaching staff are wise enough to hand the apprentice hooker the tackle bags, and Bell is likely a future pick. But if injury strikes and Bell is sent in, Robertson better have a magic potion to cure that throw.

If the All Blacks needed a job to done, Riccitelli should have been picked over Bell.

The other big gamble that the All Blacks have taken is that there is only one goal kicker that is kicking above 80 per cent.

Damian McKenzie was slotting 85 this season and at Test level this matters greatly. The next best was Brett Cameron who didn’t get a shot.

The other two 10s, Beauden Barrett and Stephen Perofeta, will cause angst if they have to line up a game-winning kick.

Stephen Perofeta in particular cannot be given the tee with a sub-60 success rate. It will simply cost the All Blacks Test matches if he continues his Super form.

Beauden Barrett seemed to give up on the goal kicking years ago, handing the tee to Richie Mo’unga and younger brother Jordie once he moved to fullback.

So that leaves Jordie as the man who will take over if McKenzie is subbed off the field. If McKenzie of Jordie Barrett are off, the All Blacks better be scoring plenty of tries.

Razor is a head coach who has earnt blind trust based on his results, so it doesn’t really matter who was or wasn’t picked in the end. A squad picked mainly on reputation with Robertson in charge should still win.

This All Blacks side has plenty of experience, it’s just not built with the backbone of the championship-winning team from this year.

Former England flyhalf Freddie Burns’ main theory for pumping England’s chances was that the All Blacks would suffer as the Crusaders have fallen.

We will find out if that theory has legs with more Crusaders selections than deserved.