The British and Irish Lions tour narrative became a whole lot more interesting after Leinster’s home defeat by Northampton in the Champions Cup. At that point, a mystery became an intrigue and the twists and turns of the sub-plot multiplied. Up until the 2024 Six Nations, it had been plain sailing, and the boat was clearly coloured emerald green. All Ireland, Ireland, Ireland. Even the selection of Andy Farrell’s assistants in the coaching booth confirmed an overwhelming Irish bias.
There were only two voices from outside the country – England’s senior coach Richard Wigglesworth and Scotland forwards specialist John Dalziel – to counter-balance the five-strong Irish panel of defence mentor Simon Easterby, attack coach Andrew Goodman, scrum guru John Fogarty, recent ex-player Johnny Sexton, and Farrell himself.
More recently, cracks have appeared in the monolith of Irish dominance over the other three nations who make up the Lions quartet. After losing to Ireland in the first round of this year’s Six Nations, England finished more strongly in the second half of the championship; winning their home tie against eventual champions France where Ireland lost theirs heavily, and scoring a massive 115 points against cellar-dwellers Wales and Italy where the men in green struggled to overcome both nations.
Last weekend, Premiership champions Northampton edged out a star-studded Leinster side which comprised anywhere between two-thirds and 90% of the national starting XV during the Six Nations. The captaincy of the tourists had been seen as a two-horse race between Ireland’s Caelan Doris and England’s Maro Itoje, but the choice tilted decisively in the direction of the ex-Harrow School product at the weekend.
Doris sustained a shoulder injury during the 34-37 defeat and the damage ruled him out of the tour of Australia. And when the head of the team changes, much of its intelligence changes with him.
It is not only the foreground picture which is shifting rapidly. In the more strategic background, the IRFU recently asked its four provinces to contribute more money towards the cost of national player contracts – up 10%, from 30% to 40%. The funds saved will be earmarked for streamlining the player pathways in Munster, Ulster and Connacht.
As ex-Scotland and Leinster coach Matt Williams rightly observed in his Irish Times column, it could lead to the sort of unwanted levelling out which simply hauls Leinster back to the chasing pack and leaves Ireland without one outstanding team:
“The IRFU must ensure the policy implements the old saying that ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’.
“While raising the standards of the other three provinces is essential for the good of Irish rugby, of equal importance is that the policy does not drag Leinster down.
“If Leinster’s performances were to deteriorate, then so too would the Irish national team.”
The zeitgeist is moving fast, and Irish rugby is feeling the heat at all levels of the professional game.
If you picked a 38-man Lions squad in the immediate, giddy aftermath of that Leinster-Northampton semi-final, containing 21 forwards and 17 backs and in the absence of Doris, there would probably be more England players in it than Irish.
Eleven English forwards compared to six from Ireland, with five backs apiece. The big question is, would Farrell be prepared to forego the Irish ‘weighting’ prior to the event and switch his selectorial allegiances?
In the event, he was not. Despite the absence of Doris, the balance still favoured Ireland with 15 Irishmen and 13 English selected and nine forwards from Ireland and eight forwards from England. Whenever there was a 50/50 choice to be made up front, the nod went to Ireland – Ronan Kelleher ahead of Jamie George, James Ryan for the injured George Martin. No room for either Jack Willis or Courtney Lawes in the back-row.
But at least, there is always Henry Pollock. The precocious Saints open-side provided a shorthand for the sea change that occurred in Dublin. Josh van der Flier has always been nailed on to make Farrell’s Lions, and he has been highly instrumental in a growth of the open-side’s role over the last four or five years. Nowhere was that growth more evident than in the 2022 series between Ireland and New Zealand, where JVDF convincingly outpointed All Blacks’ skipper Sam Cane because of his extra ball-carrying ability.
Van der Flier and Pollock enjoyed excellent games and would have been close to the top in any polling for the best their club had to offer on the day. Here is a comparison of the pair’s raw stats.
Pollock not only matched Van der Flier’s effectiveness on the carry, he showed a true seven’s instinct to cut the corners and operate in the grey area at the defensive breakdown, and this became an important factor in Northampton’s success as the game unfolded.
Leinster had active possession of the ball for 21 minutes of game time, which means Pollock made a defensive contribution at the tackle and post-tackle on average twice for every minute the hosts kept ball in hand. The nature and quality of those involvements was an essential feature of Saints’ ability to slow Leinster down on attack.
Pollock showed a special talent for evading the first cleanout throughout the game, and Leinster very rarely scored a clean knockdown on the youngster at the first attempt. That enabled him to make a second effort, reach over and gets hands on the ball at the back of the ruck as it formed. The outcome was delayed delivery to Jamison Gibson-Park and a fracturing of blue-and-gold momentum. In the second clip, Pollock is ‘off feet’ quite literally as the referee calls for release, but he has already done the job he is paid to do.
A critical sequence at the end of the first half with Leinster looking to regain a foothold in the match underlined the young open-side’s value.
First Alex Coles reaches over on to ball at the base, then Pollock ‘double-digs’ as the ball goes to ground at the next ruck, meaning more slow ball for Gibson-Park. Pollock passes off the next ruck, before his slightly taller look-a-like Coles wins turnover at the final breakdown.
The 20-year-old already plays well beyond his years, with a Richie McCaw-like instinct to explore the nuances of breakdown law and take the shortcut in any scenario.
Another reach-over slows down the first ruck delivery, then Pollock skips straight across the face of the next breakdown, rather than circling around behind it, to put himself in position A1 to make the following tackle.
On the other side of the ball, Pollock showcased an innate ability to read defences, along with the range of passing and sheer acceleration needed to exploit them, typical of a modern top-drawer seven.
That screenshot could be copied as a template for any forward wondering how to pass out of the first line and into the second line of attack: stay square to the defender opposite to engage them, keep your two options outside [pass flat, or behind] alive until the very last moment, remain sympathetic on the delivery when you finally make your choice.
The climactic semi-final in the boiling hothouse of the Aviva Stadium showed Pollock is ready for a higher level of play. If he can not only survive, but thrive in that environment, he will have no problems on a Lions tour of Australia.
The larger question of whether Farrell’s selection did true justice to the relative strength of the four nations as they are right now, remains stubbornly open. There is still an Irish majority, which would have been fully justified up until the end of 2024. But the character of the current season thus far has been painted in different colours, far more white than emerald green, and the Lions have already started their race a couple of steps off the pace.
Go Australia!
Still beating the ‘it was all the draw’s fault’ drum I see. 😂 I guess everyone has to pick a hill to die on.
Couple things wrong with your response:
“Lets be honest. 9 points down with 10 mins to go was a match outside of SAs control.” - What does this even mean? So no team can overcome a 9-point deficit in 10 minutes? It’s been done countless times and will de done again. The Boks took control through their scrum, scored a try and kicked a penalty. There’s nothing lucky about this.
“SA got the weather (to keep it tight) and the red card in the final.” How is a red-card transgression by an opposition team lucky? It’s poor discipline. And if you properly watched any of the Bok games in the World Cup you would know that rainy weather was detrimental to South Africa who consistently picked a running fly half (Libbok) in big games. It was poor weather that almost cost the Boks in the semi final against England. Also, if you don’t think the ABs can play expansively in rainy weather you haven’t watched them play either. They play in rain in NZ all the time so it wasn’t a deciding factor.
Boks were 9 down against England with 10 mins to go. They won the final against 14.
Even France with home advantage were going to struggle against a finalist with an unusually week Argentina as opposition in the semi.
There were always going to be big matches, but it could have been so much better without that ridiculous draw and scheduling.
The ABS were also experimenting with perfectly times engagement against the SA maul. The ref didn’t get the memo and thought they were early giving SA several penalties etc. They still held SA at bay for almost all that period of pressure until the cards came.
Nope. That was wasn’t a try saving tackle. It had nothing to do with 7:1 as early in match, subs were not on. SA were not winning that match 15:15. It may have been that fatigue was telling. It was certainly obvious against England.
By the nature of the draw the finalist from the side with Argentina in the semi was always going to be fresher and favourites (in my opinion for the final). That was why the SA-Ireland result appeared fatal for SA’s chances: no team was coming through that side of the draw and winning without a massive slice of luck. SA got it in all 3 matches. Lets be honest. 9 points down with 10 mins to go was a match outside of SAs control.
SA got the weather (to keep it tight) and the red card in the final. Missing either of those and they lose. That’s fatigue, that was the draw. It doesn’t matter. You won.
But what a shame the 4 top teams didn’t get to duke it out in semi finals.
Andy Farrell is not Irish, as this article implies, he is English and knows the English game and players almost as well as the Irish. He is also Head Coach and his vote outweighs the rest of them together. That said, in a choice of close margins, he is likely to choose the one he knows best.
You can be sure he has a strategy for Australia, where the pitches are hard and the games fast, as are the Wallabies. He has picked his men accordingly. Ireland has been the best of the home nations over several years. Is England on the way up? Yes but it has had several poorish years. Consistency counts. Especially under pressure. We are excited about young Pollock and hope he realises his talents at top level. The half backs will have a great dual for who starts. who backs up and who goes to the almost as tough mid week game. Let the games begin. Good luck.
Ireland still had a pretty comfortable triple crown win. If players are similar standard then Irish player would have an advantage already knowing the Farrell system.
15-13-8 in that context seems more than fair. Ireland’s dominance is less pronounced. They are still beating the others.
I would take the Leinster result with a pinch of salt. Excellent hijack by Saints in a match Leinster should have won. Leinster have been consistently excellent this season. Defining them by their worst performance feels like a stretch.
Still fantasizing RW?
‘Intention’ should be the ‘Law’ - but it isn’t.
Ireland should be dominant - but they finished below England in the 6N.
Leinster should have betaen Saints - but they lost.
LBB and Penaud are mor adngerous than Lowey in space, but of the game stays in structure, you’d have to prefer James as a passer. kicker and runner in the middle.
You are very canny about revealing the teams you support Ed.
Nick, thanks for this. Your thoughts on how difficult it is to blend together 4 different nations in such a short time for the Lions? And, just wondering, when players are exhausted during the intense matches, it would make sense for Faz to fall back on the cohesion/training with the bulk of the team the excellent Irish guys, even if their national team has dropped off a little of their intensity over the few months, no?
It is hard, and you have to keep it all simple at the end of a long season. Don’t overload the players. That often explains why the coach picks a lot of ppl he’s used to coaching and it is prob the reason Faz has gone for a lot of Irish players to make up the squad.
But I’m sure he also knows Jamie George very well and Courtney Lawes too from time spent at England/Saracens so they would be disappointed to miss out.
Depends on gameplan and conditions. LBB and Penaud behind a retreating pack won’t be as effective. True, Lowe is not the fastest, but almost unstoppable close to the line, has a booming boot for exists and, like most Kiwi backs, reads the game extremely well. If my team was being dragged into the gutters on a rainy night, I would easily pick Lowe over LBB and Penaud. If my backline had constent front-foot ball then, sure, LBB and Penaud. If Kolbe and KLA wasn’t available of course.
Hmmmm Kolbe I can go with but Lowe ahead of LBB or Penaud? Nah, you’ve lost me on that one. A coach like Joe Schmidt will have a plan to stitch up Lowe like a kipper, faster oil tankers out there these days!
Yes, I struggle to have an opinion as you can see…🤣
If you can’t see the argument you’re not looking hard enough I reckon! Penaud and LBB are great finishers but don’t have the same skillset as Kolbe - who, apart from having blistering pace and famous stepping ability can also play at 10 or 15 (or 9 at a push); kicks at goal; kicks dropgoals from the halfway line and bumps off locks. There’s an argument that he’s not just the best wing in the world but perhaps the best player in the world (I’m sure Dupont fans would disagree).
To be honest I would pick James Lowe ahead of Penaud and LBB given his power, kicking ability and rugby intellect which are all superior to the French wings.
You’re welcome to pick Ramos above Will Jordan, but I don’t think many coaches in the world would. If you have another goalkicker in the team Ramos’s value drops dramatically.
Cards are not accidents, they are the result of pressure exerted. The ABs could not handle that pressure, and something [more than one thing] broke.
If you take away the GKing, I would take at least four other FBs ahead of Ramos right now. Even Buros from UBB is better.
They’ll rest whoever they see fit in the final analysis.
Has Ramos surpassed Will Jordan? You mean now that Ramos has reverted back to 15, a position Will Jordan is still growing into at test level? Ramos was covering 10 last year while N’tmack was still out.
Wasn’t that the same dream team that had Lomax in it, lol?!
Based on recent form. A storming 6N and an undefeated Nov series. I’m still not seeing an argument for a better current backline than Ramos, Penaud, LBB.
I watched the (warm-up) game were the Boks led 14-0 on the back of a try created by one up runners and an intercept. AB’s had a player in the bin during this time.
Then around 39 mins it’s a red card. In the second half they score 3 lineout maul tries exposing the player advantage. Two in the corner and Kwagga splitting off the back to go close to the posts.
Ramos? Who’s a better test level 15 at the moment? Do Bielle-Biarrey’s 8 TRIES in this years 6N merely count as great?
We could always discuss your team, Edward?
Do you even have one? Too afraid to join in?
Galthie remarked about 20 protected players but that was last summer.
The agreement with the league was signed months after in October last year. It’s only stipulation is around resting finalists.
Oh dear Ike, methinks you’ve set yourself up as hostage to french fortunes after this, and it doesn’t look too promising…
Aye to that, it’s the game I saw too. PSDT is the prototype modern back five forward, which is why he gets the accolades he does.
Jeez you must have been watching a diff game man.
Biggest beating the Boks have given the ABs in decades, Boks also negotated the WC knockouts with arguably a player less, having to use a flanker [Deon Fourie] at hooker.
Could have neutered their whole gameplan.
Where do you get your ideas? They are excellent at 9 and have two dangerous wings. That’s about it.
I was at the Twickers game. Nothing even about it. All Blacks were trailing 14-0 when Barrett got his red card and struggling to contain the Boks. And the World Cup final - Boks played with 14 men for 20 minutes of the second half themselves. There was a momentum swing and All Blacks played well - but not well enough.
France don’t have best backline in the sport. How many French players made the World Rugby Dream Team at the end of 2024? Zero. Yes, Dupont could not really be considered but since then has the likes of Ramos suddenly surpassed Will Jordan? Is Moefana and Barassi suddenly better than DDA and Kriel? Is LBB better than Kolbe? Based on what? Club form and the performance against Ireland?
PSDT conceded three penalties last year with no yellow cards and red cards, which is about the same as most years. Even if he conceded twice as many that does not make him any less of a player. All time great. Ask anyone.
They didn’t confine withdrawal of players to the two teams who make the T14 final IB…
I thought that the Twickers game looked even at 15 v 15. The red card turned it. I also believe that the AB’s won the red card period (8 PTS - 3 PTS) in the RWC final. Despite the Boks 7:1 essentially being an 8:1 due to the red card. A paradox?
Clearly you don’t understand, then. My ego is neither that fragile nor part of the equation. Ireland were outgunned in every measure and the greater concern is how they were in front after 50 mins. They were undone totally in less than 30 mins of test rugby.
Granted we did the same to them in France the year before, but it’s the here and now. They have the best backline in the sport. Who’s better? How?
Recent games between the top 4 or 5 have all been close with the margin of win usually a score or no more than 10 PTS. We got utterly bolloxed at home, 2 late walk-in’s hiding a 30 PT beating. It was a statement win for France and the game.
His career stats at test level. Give them a look.