Basement Battle: Predicting the 2017/18 relegation fight

In these crazy, crazy times, who can predict anything anymore? Dan Johansson, that’s who. Our very own Mystic Meg peers into his crystal ball to reveal the teams most likely to be battling it out at the bottom of the table this season.

Dead Certs

London Irish:
It might be an obvious starting point, but it’s always hard to look beyond the season’s proverbial newbies as the prime candidates for the chopping block. London Irish had been a well-established Premiership side for years, but hadn’t really looked like getting their hands on silverware for quite some time. It would be fair to say they had started taking Premiership status for granted, but relegation a couple of years ago served as a rude awakening. Their year spent in the wilderness may just provide the impetus required to kick on and improve in much the same way as Northampton and Harlequins in years gone by. Recruitment has been okay-ish, with the likes of Luke McLean and Petrus du Plessis probably the biggest names to head to the Exiles. Irish’s one-season basement bungee means they don’t have the luxury of claiming to have underestimated the Premiership à la Bristol last year, so unless they hit the ground running it could be a long season for the Irish faithful.

Worcester:
The most likely side to be caught in a relegation dogfight with Irish would have to be Worcester. In the 11 seasons Warriors have spent in the Premiership, they’ve never finished higher than 8th, being relegated twice and finishing second from bottom on four occasions. Unfortunately, Warriors excellent training facilities have yet to bear fruit on the field, and recruitment has at times made Sixways look more like a retirement home for second choice players from other clubs. That their home-grown talent tends to head off to greener pastures hasn’t helped either, and without the ability to attract and keep major talent Worcester will remain something of a yo-yo side for the foreseeable future. A major exodus of 23 players this summer might be a sign of Gary Gold shaping the squad in his own vision, but whether this is enough to prevent the gravitational pull of the relegation zone remains to be seen.

Probables

Newcastle:
The Falcons are fresh off their highest league finish in 11 seasons, so perhaps this seems slightly harsh to the side that finished last season in a lofty 8th place. However, give a run of three consecutive 11th place finishes preceded immediately by a relegation and it looks like the 16/17 campaign may have been something of a fluke for the boys in black. Some cracking rugby last year as well as notable recruitment in the form of the likes of Maxime Mermoz, Joel Matavesi and Toby Flood will provoke excitement up at Kingston Park, but for a side used to lurking at the southern end of the table few will be surprised if the Falcons end up scrapping for survival again.

Sale:
Sale seemed to have all the components necessary to make a real go of things in the Premiership, but for whatever reason it never quite clicked, particularly after the departure of the mercurial Danny Cipriani. Even with the form of the likes of Denny Solomona, Sale had to settle for a fairly comfortable 10th place finish last season and unless James O’Connor can experience a Cipriani-esque career renaissance at fly half Sale’s potential will remain untapped.

Possibles

Gloucester:
For such a historic club, Gloucester’s recent Premiership performances have been average at best. Stronger showings in cup competitions have been enough to keep the Kingsholm faithful reasonably grumble free, but ultimately financial problems have prevented the Cherry & Whites from really competing with the big boys. Exeter Chiefs have shown that a lack of star names doesn’t necessarily prevent a team from being successful, but Gloucester don’t seem to have that X-Factor required to be anything other than just “quite good”. A new-look coaching set up for this campaign might mix things up a little, but it only takes a few so-so performances for a side to start preparing for a season spent at the wrong end of the board.

Northampton:
Given some of the names populating the Saints’ squad, it seems absurd to suggest that Northampton might be candidates for relegation. It’s probably unlikely, but last season’s difficult campaign won’t be forgotten quickly, especially given the loss of the talismanic Louis Picamoles, who was arguably the only one keeping Saints from collapsing completely most of the time. Dylan Hartley’s reappointment as captain might signal a return to the winning ways of 2014, but the vocal displeasure at Jim Mallinder’s regime is likely to intensify if the Saints don’t get off to a flying start this year.