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Big rankings prize for Fiji men if they pull off historic win

Waisea Nayacalevu with ball in hand for Fiji. Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images

As the teams involved in the first round of the Autumn Nations Series, England, New Zealand, Scotland and Fiji all have a chance to steal a march on their rivals by picking up valuable World Rugby Rankings points this weekend.

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England and New Zealand get Saturday’s double-header underway at Allianz Stadium in Twickenham, kick-off 15:10pm (GMT), before Scotland welcome Fiji back to Murrayfield for the first time since 2022 in the early evening 17:40pm kick-off slot.

With the draw for Rugby World Cup 2027 just over a year away, the jockeying for rankings positions is about to start in earnest and, for Fiji, a good set of results against Six Nations teams, Scotland, Wales and Ireland – while avoiding a slip-up against Spain in their third match – would come as a significant boost to their chances of a good seeding.

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Mick Byrne on where Fiji struggled against the All Blacks | Steinlager Series

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      Mick Byrne on where Fiji struggled against the All Blacks | Steinlager Series

      Taking Saturday’s game in Edinburgh for starters, Fiji will move above Scotland in the rankings if they manage to do what they have failed to do on six occasions in the past, and beat them at Murrayfield.

      Fiji have achieved the status of being the higher-ranked team before, as recently as October last year when they made the quarter-finals of Rugby World Cup 2023 and Scotland didn’t.

      But other than that the instances where they have been above Scotland in the rankings have been relatively rare. The only previous time in the last eight years was for a brief three-week period in February 2016, when Fiji were 10th and Scotland 11th.

      Whilst Fiji stand to gain two places, Scotland cannot leapfrog any of the teams ahead of them if they win, regardless of the scoreline or the result of the preceding match in Twickenham.

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      A defeat, though, would see them slip a place, to eighth.

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      As for England and New Zealand, neither team can improve on their respective positions of fifth and third.

      But a defeat of more than 15 points will cost England fifth place, with Argentina replacing them there for their highest position in over eight years.

      Los Pumas were last ranked fifth, which is two places off their all-time best, in June 2016, on the back of a home win against France.

      Elsewhere, Switzerland and Sweden can set new records. Both are currently at an all-time high of 26th and 32nd, but wins over Belgium and Lithuania in their respective matches, would see them enter previously uncharted territory.

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      J
      JW 2 hours ago
      Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

      It is now 22 years since Michael Lewis published his groundbreaking treatise on winning against the odds

      I’ve never bothered looking at it, though I have seen a move with Clint as a scout/producer. I’ve always just figured it was basic stuff for the age of statistics, is that right?

      Following the Moneyball credo, the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available

      This is actually a great example of what I’m thinking of. This concept has abosolutely nothing to do with Moneyball, it is simple being able to realise how skillsets tie together and which ones are really revelant.


      It sounds to me now like “moneyball” was just a necessity, it was like scienctest needing to come up with some random experiment to make all the other world scholars believe that Earth was round. The American sporting scene is very unique, I can totally imagine one of it’s problems is rich old owners not wanting to move with the times and understand how the game has changed. Some sort of mesiah was needed to convert the faithful.


      While I’m at this point in the article I have to say, now the NRL is a sport were one would stand up and pay attention to the moneyball phenom. Like baseball, it’s a sport of hundreds of identical repetitions, and very easy to data point out.

      the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available and look to get ahead of an unfair game in the areas it has always been strong: predictive intelligence and rugby ‘smarts’

      Actually while I’m still here, Opta Expected Points analysis is the one new tool I have found interesting in the age of data. Seen how the random plays out as either likely, or unlikely, in the data’s (and algorithms) has actually married very closely to how I saw a lot of contests pan out.


      Engaging return article Nick. I wonder, how much of money ball is about strategy as apposed to picks, those young fella’s got ahead originally because they were picking players that played their way right? Often all you here about is in regards to players, quick phase ruck ball, one out or straight up, would be were I’d imagine the best gains are going to be for a data driven leap using an AI model of how to structure your phases. Then moving to tactically for each opposition.

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