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Could France steal a win on the first match of this tour?
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An ‘unheard of’ injury crisis has the All Blacks testing the strength of their depth for the first time in a long time.
Captain Kieran Read has been out all year, Dane Coles hasn’t been seen since November, Sonny Bill Williams is in recovering from knee surgery and Sam Whitelock and Ryan Crotty are dealing with concussion problems. Brodie Retallick has now succumbed to an injury and Sam Cane is struggling to recover from an abdominal strain. Adding to that list are Jordan Taufua and Jack Goodhue who didn’t play last weekend.
Sam Cane, Sam Whitelock, and Ryan Crotty are expected to play but things could go south if they are forced from the field early. Jordie Barrett’s late night Macca’s feed in a strangers house and Rieko Ioane’s scuffle with a Blues teammate certainly adds to the strangeness in the air surrounding the first test.
This French team is not to be underestimated – all the talk of how the Top 14’s ‘free market’ recruitment hurts the national team is overblown. This side beat England and lost to Ireland on a miraculous drop goal in this year’s Six Nations. They lost to Wales by a point and Scotland by six. The only thing stopping France from winning at times is France – they are the architects of their own demise at times.
They play with an unforgiving brutality, which is often criticized for a lack of enterprise. It doesn’t look pretty but in the right conditions can drag any team into a dogfight. They have a host of experienced players coming on tour with Morgan Parra, Wesley Fofana and Mathieu Bastareaud, which could give the French an edge with so much All Black experience on the sidelines.
England’s poor attack encountered a blue wall in Paris that repelled wave after wave of one-out, slow ball rugby. The All Blacks attack is superior but with a host of unfamiliar combinations and a supposed new pod system in place could make for an interesting content.
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Aaron Smith looms as the important man for the All Blacks in this series, his recycle speed and pass velocity will keep the match speed high and tire out the French pack. Sonny Bill will be missed – his size and defensive ability would have prevented Bastareaud from making damaging gain line runs.
What to make of Beauden Barrett? His impact in the Lions series was not what was expected, and his form this year has been below his 2016/17 heights. The amount of basic errors like blatant forward passes creeping into his game is concerning. His showing in wet conditions against the Crusaders is a blight on his game management resume. He needs a strong showing a year out from the World Cup or the chorus of Mo’unga preachers will be singing louder.
An injury crisis, an unfamiliar pack, and a new pattern leads to questions about how this All Blacks team will gel together. You could say there isn’t a better time to play the All Blacks then right now.
Things are starting to feel like 2009 when France came under the radar and beat a young All Blacks side 27-22 on a cold winter’s night in Dunedin.
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History has a habit of repeating.
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