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The Breakdown: A statistical look at Saturday's rugby internationals

New Zealand perform the Haka.

It’s that time of year again, when the giants of Southern Hemisphere rugby head north to take on Europe’s finest.

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The All Blacks kick off their tour in France, while Australia head to Cardiff to take on a Wales side who have a historically dismal record against the Wallabies.

Ireland lock horns with South Africa for the first time since their closely fought 2016 series, and England and Scotland take on Argentina and Samoa respectively.

With the help of Opta, we take a statistical look at Saturday’s feast of international rugby.

England v Argentina

The Pumas head to Twickenham for the 23rd meeting between these sides hoping for a first win in the fixture since 2006.

Promisingly for England, no team has averaged more points per game against Argentina (36) since the 2011 Rugby World Cup and they have won 10 consecutive matches at HQ since losing to Wales and Australia during the 2015 RWC.

Eddie Jones will be looking to winger Semesa Rokodoguni to carry his club form into the November internationals – the Bath man, who will be on the bench at Twickenham, has seven tries to his name in the Premiership this season and is one of only six players to make more than 500 metres with ball in hand.

France v New Zealand

Only South Africa (37 per cent) and Australia (26 per cent) have a better win rate versus the All Blacks than France (21 per cent), but New Zealand are on a 10-match winning run against Les Bleus.

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France have not beaten New Zealand in Paris since 1973, while the All Blacks are out to avoid back-to-back defeats for the first time since August 2011, having lost to Australia in their final Bledisloe Cup fixture.

The visitors could bring up a significant milestone in the French capital – they are just three short of becoming the first team in Test history to score 2,000 tries.

Ireland v South Africa

Saturday’s clash in Dublin promises to be a tight encounter after the last three meetings – all during Ireland’s 2016 tour of South Africa – were decided by exactly six points.

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Ireland have lost just two of 18 matches at the Aviva Stadium since the start of 2014 and they have won four of their last six home clashes with the Springboks.

South Africa, meanwhile, have a poor recent record on the road, having won only one of their last nine away fixtures.

Scotland v Samoa

Victory over Samoa would see Scotland achieve their best winning run at Murrayfield since 1991, having won each of their last four matches in Edinburgh.

Samoa are on their longest losing run (four matches) since 1981 but are aiming to become the 25th team to record 100 Test victories.

Finn Russell’s form in the Pro14 suggests he will have a big role to play for Scotland over the coming month. The fly-half has missed just one of 21 kicks with Glasgow Warriors – the best conversion rate in the competition.

Wales v Australia

Wales have beaten the Wallabies on just two occasions in the last 30 years but 10 of Australia’s last 11 victories in the fixture have come by single-figure margins.

Michael Cheika’s men are on their best winning streak (six matches) since the seven-game run that was halted by New Zealand in the World Cup final, although they posted both the worst goal-kicking (75 per cent) and lineout (88 per cent) success rates in the Rugby Championship.

Dan Biggar will join an exclusive club of Welshmen to have made 50 international starts at fly-half – only Neil Jenkins and Stephen Jones have previously achieved the feat.

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B
BeamMeUp 1 hour ago
The Springboks have something you don't have

A few comments. Firstly, I am a Bok fan and it's been a golden period for us. I hope my fellow Bok fans appreciate this time and know that it cannot last forever, so soak it all in!


The other thing to mention (and this is targeted at Welsh, English and even Aussie supporters who might be feeling somewhat dejected) is that it's easy to forget that just before Rassie Erasmus took over in 2018, the Boks were ranked 7th in the world and I had given up hope we'd ever be world beaters again.


Sport is a fickle thing and Rassie and his team have managed to get right whatever little things it takes to make a mediocre team great. I initially worried his methods might be short-lived (how many times can you raise a person's commitment by talking about his family and his love of his country as a motivator), but he seems to have found a way. After winning in 2019 on what was a very simple game plan, he has taken things up ever year - amazing work which has to be applauded! (Dankie Rassie! Ons wardeer wat jy vir die ondersteuners en die land doen!) (Google translate if you don't understand Afrikaans! 😁)


I don't think people outside South Africa fully comprehend the enormity of the impact seeing black and white, English, Afrikaans and Xhosa and all the other hues playing together does for the country's sense of unity. It's pure joy and happiness.


This autumn tour has been a bit frustrating in that the Boks have won, but never all that convincingly. On the one hand, I'd like to have seen more decisive victories, BUT what Rassie has done is expose a huge number of players to test rugby, whilst also diversifying the way the Boks play (Tony Brown's influence).


This change of both style and personnel has resulted in a lack of cohesion at times and we've lost some of the control, whereas had we been playing our more traditional style, that wouldn't happen. This is partially attributable to the fact that you cannot play Tony Brown's expansive game whilst also having 3 players available at every contact point to clear the defence off the ball. I have enjoyed seeing the Boks play a more exciting, less attritional game, which is a boring, albeit effective spectacle. So, I am happy to be patient, because the end justifies the means (and I trust Rassie!). Hopefully all these players we are blooding will give us incredible options for substitutions come next year's Rugby Championship and of course, the big prize in 2027.


Last point! The game of rugby has never been as exciting as it is now. Any of Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, France, Argentina, Scotland, England & Australia can beat one another. South Africa may be ranked #1, but I wouldn't bet my house in them beating France or New Zealand, and we saw Argentina beating both South Africa and New Zealand this year! That's wonderful for the game and makes the victories we do get all the sweeter. Each win is 100% earned. Long may it last!


Sorry for the long post! 🏉🌍

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