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The Breakdown: Wales 96% lineout success and other statistics ahead of Super Saturday

Ireland celebrate during their win over Scotland

Ireland head into the final weekend of this year’s Six Nations looking to secure the Grand Slam at the home of former champions England.

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Joe Schmidt’s side put paid to England’s hopes of a clean sweep in the concluding fixture in 2017, so Eddie Jones’ men will be out to spoil the St Patrick’s Day party.

Away from Twickenham, Italy are already assured of the wooden spoon having failed to register even a losing bonus point from their four matches.

The Azzurri’s opponents on Saturday are Scotland, who are involved in a four-way fight to secure second spot – a battle currently being won by Wales, who can make sure of finishing as runners-up if they secure a maximum haul at home to France.

With the help of Opta, we take a look at the best stats ahead of the championship’s conclusion.

Italy v Scotland

Scotland’s record on the road does not make for pretty reading ahead of a trip to Rome – they have lost 17 of their last 19 away games in the Six Nations – although they may take comfort from the fact that their only two victories in that sequence both came at Stadio Olimpico.

Italy are on a dismal run, however, having lost their last 16 games in the Six Nations – the longest such run in the championship’s history.

Saturday’s clash is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair, with Italy (65) and Scotland (72) scoring the fewest points this season. Gregor Townsend’s men have also crossed for a joint-low tally of seven tries, along with France.

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Regardless of the result, there will be reason for Italy to celebrate with Sergio Parisse set to equal legendary former Ireland centre Brian O’Driscoll’s record of appearing in 65 Five and Six Nations matches.

England v Ireland

Should Ireland prosper at Twickenham, they will complete the Grand Slam for just the third time, having previously done so in 1948 and 2009.

This is the eighth time England and Ireland have met on the final day of the Six Nations – the men in green edge the win count 4-3.

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The Grand Slam has been on the line on four of those occasions, Ireland denying England three times while Clive Woodward’s all-conquering side got the job done in 2003.

England can feel confident of upsetting the party, having won their last 15 home games in all competitions, but Ireland come into the game on the back of winning their last 11 Test matches – their longest ever such run.

Wales v France

The respective recent records of these two sides point to a Wales win – Warren Gatland’s side have won seven of their last eight at home while France have lost seven of their past nine on the road.

Wales may want to target the lineout as a route towards victory, boasting a tournament-high success rate of 96 per cent while Les Bleus’ 78 per cent is the worst in the competition.

A win for Wales will be their 250th in Four, Five and Six Nations history, a tally matched only by England (258).

Mathieu Bastareaud was named as France captain in place of the injured Guilhem Guirado and the bruising centre has had quite the impact this year, with only Scotland’s John Barclay (six) winning more turnovers than Bastareaud or Wales’ Josh Navidi (five).

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fl 2 hours ago
What is the future of rugby in 2025?

Smith generally isn't well connected to his forward pods; doesn't do a great job of distributing to those around him; and has inferior positional and contestable kicking games than Ford and Fin.


When England have had success over the past few years, its been either through (i) defensive rugby backed up with smart tactical kicking or (ii) high possession attacking phase play based on quick ruck ball. George Ford was key to the implementation of (i) in the RWC, and in the 6N win over Wales, and to the implementation of (ii) in the 6N games against Ireland and France. Smith did great at (ii) when running at tired defenders at the end of the Ireland match, but has never successfully implemented that gameplan from the start of a test because he doesn't distribute or support his forwards enough to create consistent fast ball and build attacks over multiple phases. Instead, his introduction to the starting side has resulted in much more playmaking responsibilities being forced onto whoever plays 9. Alex Mitchell copes ok with that, but I think he looks better with a more involved playmaking 10 outside him, and it really isn't a gameplan that works for JVP or Spencer. As a result of that the outside backs and centres have barely touched the ball when Smith has been at 10.


This might not have been too much of a disaster, as England have seemed to be moving slightly towards the sort of attacking gameplan that France played under Labit and Quins play (I think this was especially their approach when they won the league a few years ago - but its still a part of their play now), which is based on kicking to create broken field rugby. This is (i) a sharp departure from the gameplans that have worked for England in the past few seasons; (ii) bears very little relation to the tactical approaches of the non-Quins players in the England team; and (iii) is an absolute disaster for the blitz defence, which is weak in transition. Unsurprisingly, it has coincided with a sharp decline in England's results.

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