LONG READ Can New Zealand beat the world's best without Barrett at 10?

Of all the things Beauden Barrett envisioned happening in 2024, it’s unlikely he ever imagined he would be in contention to once again be New Zealand’s first choice 10. As much as he may have coveted that prospect, he no doubt would have seen it as a virtual impossibility.

There were too many factors weighing against it – not least of which his age, because at 33, it would be a risk for the All Blacks to bet on Barrett being their man through to 2027. There was the fact he didn’t play in Super Rugby this year, opting instead to invoke his sabbatical clause to play in Japan. While he was trying to win a title with Toyota Verblitz, Damian McKenzie took the Chiefs to the Super Rugby final, while Harry Plummer steered the Blues to the title from fly-half. All Blacks coaches are duty-bound to show loyalty to those who graft in Super Rugby.

And then there was the unknown factor of how he would be seen by the new coaching group led by Scott Robertson – a regime whose whole vibe was built on refreshing and rejuvenating New Zealand.

Barrett was picked in the first All Blacks squad of the year, not necessarily because the coaching panel believed he had a long future with the team, but more because there is an unwritten rule senior players who commit to long-term contracts and take a sabbatical as part of that, will be selected on their return. Not that Barrett was thinking about any of that in July. As the most capped player in the squad, he came into the July Tests with a single goal of trying to help manage the transition to a new coaching group and help the team reset itself.

His role, as he saw it, was to mentor others, help the new coaches and do his bit to keep the All Blacks on track.

“The amount of changes we have had, I feel responsible to be influencing this transition,” he says.

Beauden Barrett – the impact he’s had in that last 20 minutes in both of these Test matches. One of the world’s best players, he’s phenomenal

“It is a completely new group, and we anticipated it not to be a smooth transition, so it is important us leaders problem-solve, adapt and evolve.”

Certainly, it was hard to believe Barrett was earmarked for much of an on-field role. There was no sense he was seen as an integral part of Robertson’s long-term thinking when the first team to play England was picked. McKenzie started at 10 and Stephen Perofeta, who had only just returned from injury, was given the nod at full-back. Barrett was on the bench.

Even when Barrett played a strong cameo role, he still found himself there the following week, where he sprang into action for the last half hour and effectively won the Test. Such was his impact, even England coach Steve Borthwick felt compelled to acknowledge it.

“Beauden Barrett – the impact he’s had in that last 20 minutes in both of these Test matches. One of the world’s best players, he’s phenomenal.

“He had a significant influence on the game, I think everyone could see that.”

It may have seemed a case of stating the obvious, but it needed to be said by someone outside the New Zealand media corps or All Blacks fraternity. Barrett remains a phenomenal player.

And it needed to be said because arguably Robertson and his coaching panel weren’t seeing things that way. There was an obvious investment being made in McKenzie – a clear indication Robertson saw the 29-year-old as his best bet to groom into a world class fly-half by 2027.

Picking Perofeta for the first Test sent another clear message – there is a desire to develop more options at full-back, and that sense was compounded with the knowledge Will Jordan would be returning to action in early August.

Barrett was seemingly being left out in the cold, until he produced two such red-hot performances to force a rethink.

He started the next Test at full-back against Fiji, and even when Jordan returned, there he stayed. The All Blacks weren’t the same team without him.

This idea Barrett is done as a fly-half or not the right guy to back through to 2027 is almost certainly now under revision.

It’s not just his kick and catch skills in the backfield they need, or his ability to organise his wings. It’s his tactical nous, ability to pop up at first receiver and make good decisions and most of all, the way he’s able to take some of the play-making pressure off McKenzie.

Just how valuable Barrett is to the All Blacks became most apparent in the Bledisloe Cup match in Sydney, when he had to withdraw from the starting XV due to illness. Without him, McKenzie lost his way entirely in the second half and the All Blacks, from being 21-0 up after 16 minutes, were hanging on at the death to sneak home 31-28.

There had long been a pre-planned decision to rest McKenzie for the second Bledisloe Test and play Barrett at first-five. It was potentially a big moment in the context of not only this season, but arguably this World Cup cycle, as it opened in the minds of the coaching panel the possibility they may have to entirely reconsider who is their best long-term option at 10.

This idea Barrett is done as a fly-half or not the right guy to back through to 2027 is almost certainly now under revision, following the All Blacks 33-13 win against Australia. For the first time this year, New Zealand held their attacking shape for 80 minutes, looked more certain and confident. Barrett didn’t overplay his hand, but ensured the All Blacks played in the right areas and kept the pressure on when they had a chance to do so.

He played simply, passing to the right runners and facilitating a lower-risk game which led to the All Blacks producing longer, more accurate passages of play, avoiding the last-quarter meltdown which besieged them in every other Rugby Championship game.

Back in July, there was no hint the coaches saw Barrett as an option to be what Robertson calls the “franchise quarterback”, but here we are now on eve of the All Blacks tour to Japan and Europe and it may be that’s a distinct possibility.

With Tests against England, Ireland and France in consecutive weeks, Robertson may now be minded to start Barrett at 10 in all of them. He may feel New Zealand can’t win against the best teams without his game management, lower-risk approach and ability to facilitate the attack. To amplify that possibility, McKenzie came off the bench for the last 20 minutes in Wellington and showed he looks well suited to an impact role.

The challenging thing is that your kids get older and you start to miss out on quite a bit, and they start wondering, ‘why is my dad not here?’ and that is the hardest thing about it.

Now the only question with Barrett, is does he think he’ll be able to maintain his form and motivation until the end of his contract in 2027?

“I am one season at a time right now,” he says. “I am committed to New Zealand, but there is no guarantee I will make it that far.

“Getting married and having my girls has put a lot of things in perspective around the importance of life.  The challenging thing is that your kids get older and you start to miss out on quite a bit, and they start wondering, ‘why is my dad not here?’ and that is the hardest thing about it.

“It means when you do go away you want to make it meaningful and worthwhile – more purposeful.

“The desire is still there to give it a crack, but I have to consider my family, my performance and my desire. That is ultimately what it will come down to, and if that fire is still burning inside of me.

“My body is good, head is good, heart is good, family is happy. If my performance is good, and I’m being picked [by the All Blacks] then one year leads to another and before you know it the World Cup is one year away, and you have a chance.”