Can Will Jordan avoid the All Blacks curse of turning 27?

Will Jordan has everyone consulting the record books to see just how far up the all-time try-scoring list he is now and what he will need to do to usurp Doug Howlett, who sits at the top with 49 tries.

The assumption is that Jordan is going to go way past the greats on that list and smash the 50-try barrier and set all sorts of new records.

Why wouldn’t he? In Turin on Saturday night, he played his 41^st Test and scored his 38^th try. It shifted him up one place on the all-time list – one try ahead of current team-mate Rieko Ioane and Jonah Lomu,.

But what makes Jordan’s numbers different, is the speed at which he has reached this exulted position. Ioane has played 80 Tests to score 37 tries, which means his ratio of Tests played to tries scored is 0.47.

Lomu played 63 Tests to score his 37 for a 0.59 ratio. Above them is Ben Smith, who scored 39 in 84 (0.46), Jeff Wilson on 44 – which came in 60 Tests (0.73) and, higher still, there is Christian Cullen on 46 tries from 58 Tests (0.79), Joe Rokocoko on 46 tries from 68 Tests (0.68) and Howlett at the top with a ratio of 0.79.

The best ratio from any player above Jordan on the list, belongs to Julian Savea who scored 46 tries in 54 Tests (0.85) and the lowest is Beauden Barrett – 45 tries in 134 Tests (0.33).

And this is what is prompting so much excitement about Jordan. His ratio is 0.95, which means he’s, statistically at least, on track to surpass Savea as the fastest player to score 40 tries for the All Blacks.

Savea scored his 40^th try in his 46^th Test, against Australia in 2016. But barely a year later he would play his last Test for the All Blacks – against the British and Irish Lions in the series decider.

He had a difficult night where he fumbled a pass in the first few minutes with the line at his mercy and missed a few easy tackles. He was dropped for the Rugby Championship, the news coming out on the day of his 27^th birthday.

Going through the all-time list, the age of 27 becomes impossible to ignore. Cullen played his last game for the All Blacks just a few days short of his 27^th birthday.

And going through the all-time list, the age of 27 becomes impossible to ignore. Cullen played his last game for the All Blacks just a few days short of his 27^th birthday.

He was booming along as the greatest attacking fullback of the professional age, suffered a serious knee injury and never really recovered.

Wilson played his last Test for the All Blacks when he was 27. Capped at just 19-years-of-age, Wilson decided to call it quits with rugby to try his hand again at cricket – he had played international cricket before he was selected to play international rugby.

Rokocoko – his last game was as a 27-year-old in 2010. Like Wilson he’d made his debut young – he was just 20 – and international rugby looked like a breeze for him until he turned 27 and suddenly he lost his explosive pace and the ability to beat defenders.

And sadly for Lomu, 27 was the age at which he could no longer hide his chronic illness that was destroying his kidneys. He too, was no longer an international try-scoring force once he turned 27.

Jordan, as fate would have it, turns 27 in February next year and the question that the data makes impossible not to ask, is whether he is going to be able to sustain his current try-scoring ratio once he reaches what has been a cruel age for outside backs in New Zealand.

Can he really continue to torment defences and score as regularly as he does, or will there be an inevitable slow down?

Judging by the way he played in 2024, and the way he’s played since he came into the All Blacks, there is every reason to believe Jordan will still be splitting defences and bamboozling defenders into his 30s.

What’s different about him is the range of weaponry he has at his disposal. He is lightning quick, yes, but what makes him seem quicker on the field is his anticipation and innate ability to read where space might be.

It would be fair to say that Jordan is not just a spectacular try scorer, but also a spectacular scorer of spectacular tries, none more memorable than the one he scored in the 2023 World Cup quarterfinal, blasting off Richie Mo’unga’s shoulder.

His show reel contains few tries where he was simply on the end of a great backline and had an easy run in to score. His portfolio is loaded with brilliant, individual tries where he had to inject himself into proceedings and do something magical to score – a brilliantly timed run close to the ruck, or a chip and chase started from an impossible position.

It would be fair to say that Jordan is not just a spectacular try scorer, but also a spectacular scorer of spectacular tries, none more memorable than the one he scored in the 2023 World Cup quarterfinal, blasting off Richie Mo’unga’s shoulder.

“We practised that throughout the week,” Mo’unga would reveal. “The move wasn’t actually made for me, it was made for Will Jordan on the inside and I saw the two defenders hold on him because obviously, he’s a big threat at the line.

“If you’re in a black jersey it’s a good start” 🖤

Watch @dallaglio8 catch up with the @AllBlacks‘ Will Jordan 🇳🇿 pic.twitter.com/nYHOd8NjvG

— Rugby on TNT Sports (@rugbyontnt) November 20, 2024

“What people don’t usually see is his ability to understand the game of rugby. You see it in games where he pops up at the right time. His anticipation is probably his biggest strength, that and his speed.

“He is able to read plays ahead and see where the ball is going to get to. And he sniffs out any opportunity. He has a huge, huge future.”

Arguably the most compelling evidence to support the contention that Jordan isn’t a finisher so much as a creator/finisher, is the number of teams he has scored against.

Some All Blacks wings have boosted their totals by scoring a hat-full against emerging nations at the World Cup. But Jordan’s tally has been mostly built by scoring against most of the top dogs in the world game – and tries have come against South Africa, Ireland, England, Australia, Argentina and Fiji, and he just needs to score against France and Scotland to ensure he has touched down against every nation currently in the top 10.

Jordan shifted to fullback mid-way through this year, which was partly because the coaching panel wanted to shift Beauden Barrett to first-five and because head coach Scott Robertson believes it is the 26-year-old’s best position.

But what is most likely to ensure Jordan doesn’t turn 27 and hit the wall, is that he has a wider set of basic skills than the likes of Lomu, Rokocoko, Howlett and Savea, and therefore, he has greater potential longevity as a Test starter even should he lose a fraction of his pace as he ages.

Jordan shifted to fullback mid-way through this year, which was partly because the coaching panel wanted to shift Beauden Barrett to first-five and because head coach Scott Robertson believes it is the 26-year-old’s best position.

Robertson used Jordan at fullback throughout his time at the Crusaders and the All Blacks coach is of the view that Jordan can be better utilised as an attacking weapon when he wears No 15 – a point that was proved correct after his protegee produced a mesmerising performance against Australia this year, just two Tests after making the switch from the wing.

“He created a lot,” waxed Robertson after the 33-13 victory. “When he gets the ball in hand, his angle changes, his step, he had a lot of players [beaten] with just how he moved his feet.”

Jordan, as he showed against England and Ireland is improving as a high ball catcher, kicker, defender and play-maker, and against France in Paris, he was willing to pop up at first receiver more often than he previously has and make decisions about facilitating the attack.

None of this will necessarily make him a more prolific try-scorer, but it will mean that he can develop into a multi-skilled fullback and hold his place in the team for many more years, and there is a statistical truth that the longer his career lasts, the higher the probability he will smash all try-scoring records even should his strike rate start to slow.

Robertson in assessing Jordan’s 2024 season, says: “He can finish on the wing he can create through his timing, his backfield cover and his kicking and he can really run the game and his body is good, so I am really pleased for him.”