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Cream rising to top again in Champions Cup – Andy Goode

Dublin , Ireland - 20 May 2023; Gregory Alldritt, left, and Romain Sazy of La Rochelle lift the trophy after during the Heineken Champions Cup Final match between Leinster and La Rochelle at Aviva Stadium in Dublin. (Photo By Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

The Champions Cup has had its detractors in recent years but it’s still the best club competition in the world and the cream is rising to the top again.

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The new format may mean a couple of teams have made it through to the knockout stages with just one win on the board but it did its job in reducing the number of dead rubbers in the pool stages and getting us an extra round of the serious stuff at this time of year.

I could see the attraction in bringing in an FA Cup style draw from this point on to create even more jeopardy but I do think it’s right that teams are rewarded for their form during the pool games and I like the fact you can map out who will face who in the quarter-finals next weekend.

History tells us you only normally get a couple of away wins out of eight Champions Cup knockout ties, with home sides winning 71 per cent of the time, and my money is on La Rochelle and Bath to be the big winners on the road.

Stormers
Stormers players celebrate following their victory during the European Rugby Champions Cup, Pool 4 Rugby Union match between Stormers and Stade Rochelais (La Rochelle) at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town on December 16, 2023. (Photo by Gianluigi Guercia / AFP) (Photo by GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP via Getty Images)

The champions have to travel to South Africa to face the Stormers but the trip to Cape Town isn’t anywhere near as daunting as going to Pretoria with all the issues associated with altitude and they should have won there back in December.

They’ve got even more of their big men back and firing now too and I think the physicality of the likes of Will Skelton, Uini Atonio, Levani Botia, Greg Alldritt and Jonathan Danty will get them over the line.

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Bath may not have quite the same giant humans as La Rochelle but the back row of Ted Hill, Sam Underhill and Alfie Barbeary is enough to cause any team problems and they definitely have the edge over Exeter in the halfbacks with Ben Spencer and Finn Russell.

The Chiefs have surpassed everyone’s expectations so far this season but they’re an extremely young side and a few cracks have just started to show in recent weeks so I think there’ll be an away win at Sandy Park too.

Saracens are normally a team you can back to win on the road in a major knockout game but they were hammered 55-15 in Bordeaux in January and the absence of Owen Farrell is a massive blow to their hopes.

Matthieu Jalibert
Bordeaux-Begles’ French fly-half Matthieu Jalibert celebrates as he runs to score Bordeaux’s sixth try during the European Rugby Champions Cup Pool 1 rugby union match between Union Bordeaux-Begles (UBB) (FRA) and Saracens (ENG) at the Chaban-Delmas Stadium in Bordeaux, south-western France on January 14, 2024. (Photo by ROMAIN PERROCHEAU / AFP) (Photo by ROMAIN PERROCHEAU/AFP via Getty Images)
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That is one of as many as five repeat fixtures from the pool stages, which is something that will probably never happen again once the format is tweaked, but I don’t see that as being a major issue at all.

It didn’t look ideal when the Round Of 16 match-ups fell that way at the end of January but we’ve had a break of almost three months since then and now they just feel like intriguing standalone fixtures, with the recent meetings adding a bit of extra spice if anything.

If things go to form, there’ll be a couple more repeat match-ups in the quarter-finals as well. Leinster are odds-on favourites to beat Leicester and that could set up a mouth-watering clash with La Rochelle in Dublin and I think Toulouse will be too strong for Racing so they could be welcoming Bath to the south of France again.

Fixture
Investec Champions Cup
Stormers
21 - 22
Full-time
La Rochelle
All Stats and Data

Then I think Northampton will be welcoming the Bulls and Bordeaux hosting Harlequins to complete the quarter-final line-up and, as well as home advantage counting, I think that shows that the cream is rising to the top as it always does in this competition.

The English clubs had a fantastic opening weekend back in December with seven of them winning in the same round of the Champions Cup for the first time ever, despite the fact they had been written off due to the financial issues in the Premiership.

However, things were always likely to even themselves out a bit over the course of four rounds and we have ended up with a very balanced split of six clubs from the Premiership, five from the URC and five from the Top 14 in this year’s Round Of 16.

Stade Rochelais player Will Skelton celebrates on the final whistle during the Heineken Champions Cup Final between Leinster Rugby and Stade Rochelais at Aviva Stadium on May 20, 2023 in Dublin, Ireland. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

If it goes the way I think it will, there’ll be at least a couple of teams from each league in the quarter-finals next weekend as well and then it’ll be the teams with the pedigree at this level and the greater power in their game that prevail.

Knockout rugby is a different beast and they used to say defence wins championships, it still does to a certain extent, but nowadays it’s power and physicality that gets you over the line more often than not in big one-off games.

Fixture
Investec Champions Cup
Exeter Chiefs
21 - 15
Full-time
Bath
All Stats and Data

We’ve seen that in the World Cup and Six Nations, as well as in the latter stages of the Champions Cup in the past few years, and you can’t look past the usual suspects of La Rochelle, Toulouse and Leinster on that basis.

It’d be great to see a side like Northampton with their free-flowing attacking game, combined with a bit more pragmatism and steel this season, crash the party but sheer size and experience is likely to count when it comes to the quarters and semis.

There’ll no doubt be some phenomenal rugby this weekend with a bit of South African sunshine and some English endeavour adding to proceedings but expect the French and Irish juggernauts to be the last ones standing in the weeks to come.

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Rory 258 days ago

Goodey wrong again. New format does not work, we’re seeing 60/70/80 point wins in this format since teams can afford to play 2nd string teams since they only have to win one game. I don’t recall seeing any blowout wins in the old group stage by the margins we’re seeing now

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JW 48 minutes ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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