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Curtain call on the Springboks' 8-5 season
By Ben Smith
The Springboks’ fifth loss of the year at the hands of England completed a tough season full of grit and determination, yet the final 8-5 record does little to cement this team’s status as a dominant force of the game.
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Head coach Jacques Nienaber is well within his rights to believe his side is ‘better than the percentages suggest’, as any coach would.
He knows his team, his players and sees the potential they have. Every coach is susceptible to the same blind loyalty and inherent belief that comes with the job. If you don’t believe in your squad, who else will? In the process of continual improvement, the only mindset to have is to believe the potential is the sky.
But that same insider perspective can be a limiting one, as flaws are often unable to be recognised, addressed or even considered. Too much belief often comes with a disregard for reality.
In the midst of the three-game skid during the Rugby Championship, defiance was high on the agenda. The ‘DNA’ line was trotted out until it was stale: a foolhardy commitment to a defeatist game plan that wasn’t producing. They were ‘close’ to winning, we were told, so that was an endorsement of the game plan.
Internally, now they are looking to three or four losses that came in the final few minutes this season to feel they are better than the results suggest, a redundant exercise in ego-padding which can have more negative consequences than positive.
‘We can be better’ is a very different message to ‘we are better’ , which absconds from responsibility and only serves to build complacency in players’ minds after dropping five tests in a calendar year.
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One could also point to the third Lions test, which was minutes away from a drawn series before a Lions error gifted the Springboks a kickable penalty goal to snatch a lead.
Or the second All Blacks test, ten seconds away from full-time needing a low percentage miracle to get back the ball to even stay alive.
How about against the Wales B-side? Leaving it late to take a two-point lead in the 73th minute and still giving Wales one last possession to go the full length of the field and win at the end.
Those are three wins that could have been losses, just like the four losses that could have been wins. On the balance of all the games, this win percentage is exactly who they are and have been all year.
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The layup games against the underprepared Pumas, the second Lions test and the win over Scotland at Murrayfield were the only comfortable displays over tier one opposition. The rest were a grind, with plenty ending up on the wrong side of the ledger. Over the long run, you can’t escape the percentages.
It’s just how these Springboks play.
For most of the year they used a kick-everything game plan with little-to-no attacking initiative that came down to one or two calls that sometimes fell their way, and sometimes didn’t.
That tin-arse approach of kick, scrum, maul and take penalties did not produce dominant wins. It just scrapped wins and then also failed them.
With this approach, they will always be in a lot of games to the very end, and then need uncontrollable moments to fall their way. Live by the whistle and then die by the whistle.
That’s why the referee commands so much focus. The referee is vitally important to the Springboks’ winning ways.
Does this mean they are a poor side? Not at all.
This isn’t a zero-sum, binary view of the Springboks. This is just the honest truth. They are a very good side, not a great one, that plays to their strengths, tries to hide their weaknesses and is very rigid in their approach.
They are not looking to become a great attacking side that puts teams to bed early. They aren’t willing to adapt or evolve their approach too much. They are happy living and dying by the 50-50s, living off their pack, and then deflecting when it doesn’t work.
They have world-class players across the park, particularly up front in the locks and back row. Their work at the breakdown has been spectacular this year. If you bring a flawed game plan to the pitch, they will get you.
But if you plan accordingly, you can beat them.
Although their season finished at 8-5, there are clearly different circumstances this year which required many away games and the five at home were without crowds.
In 2022, they will hopefully get to play the Wallabies, All Blacks and Los Pumas at home in front of their fans in the Rugby Championship. It looks like Wales are touring in July and they will play Ireland, France, Italy and Wales on the end of year tour.
Next year’s slate is another chance for the Springboks to prove they are a historically great side and put together something more conclusive to go with all the mythology around their 2019 World Cup title, because 2021 certainly didn’t do it.
The biggest favour the Springboks can do for the rest of the world is continue to believe this way of playing is going to led to success in France in two years time.
They are doubling down on the same squad, it doesn’t seem like building depth was a priority this year. Despite the losses, the same line-up continually played in 2021.
Most of this pack will be in their early thirties by 2023, with experience and guile but a touch less dynamism. The spine of Faf de Klerk (32 in 2023) , Handre Pollard (29) and Willie le Roux (34) will also be a mature one by rugby’s standards. There isn’t any serious succession planning going on for anyone but Duane Vermeulen.
As the saying goes, if your enemy is making a mistake, don’t interrupt them. For the sake of everyone else, keep playing this way, with these players.
It barely got by in 2021, and likely isn’t going to in 2023 with another two years of wear and tear. History already proves that those that stay the same get left behind.
The All Blacks are currently a perfect example of that. Sticking with hangovers from the Hansen-era, playing the same game with the same plays under Foster, just fell apart in the two most important tests of the year.
Who now believes South Africa are far and away the world’s best team in 2021 after an 8-5 season? Scrapping the Lions by a razor thin margin? After coming third in their one annual flagship tournament? Just escaping embarrassment against Wales and now losing to a young England side?
Which top tier one side seriously doesn’t think they can beat them? Who would back them, outside of South Africa, if they extended their trip to Dublin or Paris next week?
If the illusion ever had you fooled, the fog should have lifted by now. The Springboks are a very competitive, 61.5 per cent winning team, marginally less than they have been historically (62.7 per cent).
They are tough to beat but get beaten regularly. It’s that simple.
Welcome to a new era in test rugby, with no dominant team or leader. Everyone in the top six or seven teams can beat each other, as has happened in 2021.
And that couldn’t be better for the game.
I didn't bother reading the article when i saw Benjamins little pudgy baby face as the author but chose to jump straight to the comments instead. Standard Bok bashing I see? He must be pi$$ed at how humiliated his beloved All Blacks were on the weekend. I know the WC is only 2 years away and that the All Blacks have the easier draw but I'll go out on a limb here and say they won't be winning that one either. Boks are a year behind everyone else in terms of development and "should" have won 3 of the tests they lost those year. I'll put those 1 and 2 point losses down to lack of killer instinct that comes with game time so in essence, it's not a bad year for the Bokke considering. NOW, if i were an AB supporter (like Benny boy) I would be massively worried...
I'm with Ben on one thing. I like percentages. Following that guideline I wouldn't change a thing about Springbok rugby, but if I were a NZ supporter I would be looking for a very different approach to the game. Reason? The ultimate goal of rugby is not the Rugby Championship or the end of the year tours. It is the World Cup. The All Blacks have a World Cup winning percentage of 27%. The Springboks have a World Cup winning percentage of 37%. The springboks have played pretty much the same was since 1995. So have the All Blacks who burgled a home win via a very friendly Bryce Lawrence (remember they only just hung on to beat a very weakened French team) have since 1987 only won the World Cup once outside of New Zealand. And have won one less World Cup than the Springboks when both sides have competes. As difficult as it must be for the All Black supporters to concede, the stats do not point to the All Blacks being nearly as likely, in any given year, to lift the the World Cup as the Boks. I'm not saying the Boks will win the next WC or that the AB's won't, I'm just saying that while we are relying on stats let's examine the respective probability of either the Boks or the AB's lifting Old Bill in any given year. But I will concede one thing. In between the World Cup the AB's are by far the best team on the planet. But it looks like knock out rugby is not really their thing. Could it be that the Springbok style which has been adopted by many by clever coaches as the way to win knock out games has also been seen as the way to beat the way the AB's play.
As a South African it is hard not to let emotion for a game that our nation loves get to your judgement, however I think the same is true for the author, but in the opposite direction.
What fascinates me is how the author refers to the fact that “statistics matter”, but only those that suit his narrative.
No consideration is taken of:
- SA as a rugby nation alongside the New Zealand the only to have won 3 World Cups, when he knocking its win ratio.
- Boks playing no int. Rugby in 2020 (thus more conservative style & team selections in 2021)
- The results of hard work on transformation to a more representative team while still being nr. 1 in the world alongside the previous two points (the best is yet to come)
- Historical and recent winning record against the All Blacks
- Using France as a reference, Bok pack dominance and how it has unlocked teams like AB’s & England (PS England were dominated upfront again) plus how that has been an earmark of all great teams of the past.
Results are results and the number is “8-5” for the year, however I cannot help but look at the tailored facts above and note “Opinion” on the article because it is certainly not entirely factual. It also doesn’t help that Ben rarely if ever writes positively about the Boks.I suppose it comes with World Champ and nr. 1 territory.
It is going to be an interesting 2 years of int. Rugby ahead.
100% agree with you Ben and Boks themselves do to. Not great in 2021. Rather really good in certain departments and steadily improving in others. Exactly where a side who played zero rugby in 2020 would like to be as they build towards France 2023. Also agree with your ‘percentages’ reference - 61% win ratio is no doubt underperforming given how much firepower the Boks have at their disposal. Not sure what percentages World Rugby use but Boks somehow end an admittedly disappointing year ranked #1. This is lekker for a good group of humble hard working people. You had to do a lot of Bok bashing to get to your point of the top 6 being even strength which is bizarre given that the real elephant in the room is that for the first time in almost two decades the ABs are well and truly just a good top six rugby team.
This guy fascinates me. He offers great insight, but everything is saturated in his snide, vindictive takedowns. It's like a well-prepared steak which gets lost in a rank, overpowering cheese sauce. His fixation with the Boks and 'their ego's' borders on self-parodying performance art.
Dude, we get that you think the Boks are overhyped. We got it 20 hit-pieces ago. What else ya got?
The 2023 RWC is going to be very interesting. 5 teams that can realistically win it.
Ben Smith only every dumps on the Boks, he's so one-eyed that he hasn't written an end of year article on the hammered AB's. And never looks to any other team, because he knows it gets clicks. His jingoistic rhetoric is getting old. I agree we need to work on depth, but if we are scraping through and winning games, no Bok supporter cares. A win is win Ben, nobody will look back on history and dispute a lions series win. That's test match rugby. Move on.
The Boks probably have the most potent pack in world rugby. The French from yesterdays showing are probably not that far behind in the way they dominated the All Blacks. The Boks forwards do their job period. That front line dominanace is greatly offset by the lack of creativity and execution by the backline.
B&I Lions series was the main focus for this year and well done to a severely undercooked Bok side for grinding that Series win out.
The next priority was the Rugby Championship..and after the "upset" losses the Wallabies they should have actually blooded some new talent but with 2 games and against arch rivals the All Blacks..giving new talent a chance was never going to happen.
So down to the end of year tour...There was no real excuse to not give the fringe players a go..this would have been an ideal opportunity...here the Bok management failed dismally...An unconvincing win vs Wales and a fairly dominant display against a up-for -challenge Scotland...and as the scribe has wrote, a 50-50 arm wrestle with a new young England side that ended in another last minute true -to-form loss.
The problem lies in the use of the backline by the Management
1) the backline are clearly instructed to play in a certain way despite their world class potential (see Kolbe who is basically a spectator in most Boks games vs the way he plays for Toulon also Faf De Klerk who slows the ball down to a grind vs his energizer bunny antics for Sale Sharks.)
2) The reluctance to give new talent a chance (See Fassi and Sbu' Nkosi.)
3) They stick with 2 players dreadfully out of form(Pollard and Le Roux) - and the back up 9 and 10(Jantjies duo) who are more-or-less "useless" and wont make any other Tier 1 C team.
4)No proper back up kicker...
I wouldn't be too harsh on this bunch as this is their first foray into the new post-Covid rugby world since the WC. It was good to see them giving the ball width aswell- although the backline still likes to drift instead of straightening and sucking defenders while learning to offload in the tackle.
2022 will be intresting to see whether this side can evolve or are neandrathal brutes who evoltution is about to leave behind as the scribe believes.
Interesting article. Although I think that you are a bit harsh, I do think you are right in many ways.
We have arguably the best forward pack and reserves on the planet.
The problem is that Pollard has been way below his best in 2021.
He has a distinct lack of distribution skills. He stops dead in his tracks when he passes, instead of passing on the run.
This necessitates the selection of a "2nd flyhalf" in the starting 15 - Willie le Roux - to distribute and set up plays.
The problem is that le Roux is even more out of form and erratic.
This is the reason for the Boks' kick and chase gameplay.
That is the sum total of the Boks' problems.
Any of the top 5 teams in the world's backlines would have won 99% of their games behind this Springbok pack of forwards.
I am a big Pollard supporter, but his game has gone south for a while now. Hate to say this, but he must go. And so must Willie le Roux.
Bok problem solved.
For too long I have had to try read through a completely biased narrative from a pundit that obviously has an axe to grind. I am finding it difficult to come back to this site daily.
Look maybe I am just being sensitive and the content I am reading is hitting a nerve, but this is not the first time I have felt this way after reading your articles. I used to actually avoid your articles completely as I have always felt them biased.
Don't get me wrong I think 90% is right on the money and an very informed opinion, it is just not directed to all teams fairly. Maybe your point is to get a reaction form supporters like myself and that does not really feel a) in the spirit of our game b) not meant to entertain but to hurt or cause shock.
If this is not your intention then I do apologize but your articles don't actually make me feel good about Rugby at all and slowly my love of the game is lessening. This is definitely not your fault but your articles don't actually make me jump for joy at the prospect of reducing the current cynicism in our game.
It would be great to hear your opinions on solutions (positive and negative) for the SH sides, as all are finding it hard currently, and this latest round of games is proof of that.
I wish you and your family a good festive season.