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Dear New Zealand, the All Blacks probably won't win the World Cup
By Finn Morton
If you ask any casual rugby fan to name the best team in the world, chances are they’ll say the All Blacks. The legendary side is synonymous with the sport, and for good reason, too.
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For more than 100 years the All Blacks have set the benchmark in all of sports – yes, all of sports. At the start of this year, the All Blacks had the winningest record out of any team, anywhere.
New Zealand had won 77% of their matches, and as fans will of course remember, the men in black took things to another level during The Rugby Championship.
With coach Ian Foster at the helm, the All Blacks charged to Rugby Championship glory on the back of big wins over Argentina, South Africa and Australia.
The All Blacks also held onto the Freedom Cup after beating the world champion Boks and a 2-0 series sweep over Eddie Jones’ Wallabies saw them retain the Bledisloe Cup as well.
Everything was right with the All Blacks’ world, well, until it wasn’t.
Waking up on the morning of Friday, August 25 in London, there wasn’t a cloud in the sky and birds were chirping. It was a perfect day – rather Disney-esque – but it was clearly a good omen for the All Blacks’ rivals.
Just as New Zealand’s Test with the Springboks at Twickenham got underway, some grey clouds filled the sky. It was raining soon after, and that became the symbolic summary of the All Blacks’ evening.
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The Boks were relentless as they piled on 35 points against a tired New Zealand outfit. Replacement Cam Roigard scored the All Blacks’ only try as they fell to a 35-7 loss.
It was a record defeat.
South African journalist Mark Keohane has bestowed the ‘favourites’ tag upon the Boks after they inflicted such misery and pain upon their helpless rivals.
“Looking at the scoreboard, 35-nil after 65 minutes, I couldn’t believe it. Seven of the nine worst-ever Springbok defeats have come against the old enemy,” Keohane said on Weekend Sport with Jason Pine.
“It was really the statement performance… they go into the World Cup on a high and New Zealand, for me, go in with some serious questions, once again, about their forward pack.”
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But Kiwis would disagree.
‘The All Blacks have to win the World Cup because they’re the All Blacks,’ some fans may question, but the reality of the situation isn’t so generous.
That’s not to say they can’t win the World Cup, but they certainly aren’t favourites. The teams ahead of them are simply better and have been for quite some time.
New Zealand fell to fourth on World Rugby’s rankings, and that appears to be a fairly accurate reflection of where this team is placed ahead of rugby’s showpiece event.
The All Blacks aren’t the favourites to win the upcoming Rugby World Cup. In truth, many would be surprised to see them top their pool ahead of tournament hosts France.
France is a better team than New Zealand, and the same case can be made about other sides.
Ireland and South Africa have both won at least half of their Tests against the All Blacks since the last World Cup, and Les Bleus dominated New Zealand in their most recent meeting.
Ireland, who are the world’s No. 1 team, opened the floodgates when they beat the All Blacks for the first time back in 2016 – in Chicago, of all places.
Since that win at Soldier Field, which is the home of the Chicago Bears, Ireland has beaten New Zealand 57 per cent of the time. Two of their four victories came on New Zealand soil, too.
Don’t put it down to the luck of the Irish, either. This team can play.
Ireland have New Zealand’s number, and they aren’t alone – so do the Boks.
South Africa have won three of six Tests against the All Blacks since their unforgettable World Cup triumph in Japan four years ago.
But that win in London two weeks ago takes the cake; that sets the tone for the World Cup.
The All Blacks, who were practically at full strength, were lost for answers as the South Africans put on a show. It was one of the darkest days in New Zealand rugby history.
If they meet in the quarter-finals stage – which is entirely possible, if not expected – then it’s hard to see how even the mighty All Blacks could reverse a 28-point thumping.
They’re rugby players, not miracle workers.
But having to overcome the threat of Ireland and South Africa in the knockout rounds is just a hypothetical for the All Blacks at this stage. What’s not, though, is Friday night’s World Cup opener at Stade de France.
The All Blacks will look to rain on France’s parade when they take on the tournament hosts at the very same venue they played at the last time these two sides met.
New Zealand were beaten, convincingly, 40-25 by a red-hot French side in 2021. The French crowd were in full voice, and the same is expected for Friday night’s opener.
Over the last two years, Les Bleus have been the best team in the world.
Captain Antoine Dupont has helped take French Rugby to an all-new level ahead of their home World Cup, to the point where they’re expected to win rugby’s ultimate prize.
They’re the best rugby team on the planet, and they’ll have 80,000+ rendering fans singing their praises every time they step onto the field at Stade de France.
Then there’s the All Blacks.
Everything was going to plan before that Test against the Boks, but that changed everything.
The once unconquerable powerhouse of the international game is now an underdog. New Zealand aren’t exactly a fallen giant, but they aren’t feared either.
New Zealand can still win this World Cup, but Kiwis need to accept that they probably won’t.
What can anyone say that BJ Spratt hasn't already said so eloquently. I've been bashing on that NZRU must get its house in order otherwise the AB's are going to suffer a lot more and that isn't good for World Rugby. Its a pity that you have people like Jeff Wilson who could do so much good for NZ Rugby by using his position to speaking the truth and not talking nonsense just to line his pockets. If NZ Rugby is not going to reform and adapt the AB's brand is going to suffer hugely.
We certainly managed to change a great First V into an average Full Back Eden. Having said that, that was 4 years ago.
We don't get any "Practise" in that Super Rugby Bullshit. Without S.A. its not the same.
Gross mismanagement by NZRFU. Failure to "understand" and deal with "serous decrease in player participation thoughout New Zealand Rugby has had a huge affect on the growth of the game.
The NZRFU is still in "Denial" with CTE. The public look at them and say. " Still a huge "Boys club"
Now they see the "emergence" and the "Opportunity in Women's Rugby, as a potential "Cash Cow" They see they can manipulate the new revenue stream. I am sure it won't take the women long to wake up.
New Zealand fans see Razor Robertson as a "breath of fresh air" The NZRFU have never "liked" him because of his "nature"
Graham Henry was the main "influencer" who stopped Razor over Foster.
Henry has and will always have the "Headmaster's Psyche" much the same as Schmidt. They can't handle "players that don't adhere to their thinking, so a coach like Razor was far too much for them to handle.,.
CEO Mark Robinson is a "weak CEO" His handling of the Foster Scenario was "as bad as it gets "
His actions could be shown "as an example of poor leadership" on any business course.
No "Razor" is no magician. He is a highly skilled Rugby Coach who has a "Magic Quality" to communicate with and understand his players, and get the best out of them as players and young men.
He is the Best Rugby Coach in World Rugby at the elite level. He is also a very nice guy. Honest and sincere.
Something the All Blacks haven't had for since Wayne Smith was coach.
Yes Eden the problems New Zealand Rugby have are deep. They are about to get a lot deeper. Silver Lakes are interested in one thing; PROFIT. Egon Durban and Ken Hao aren't happy. If we don't get out of the quarters.......Well that will be interesting. U.S Billionaires have no interest in Rugby, only profit.
Of course the ALTRAD front of shirt Branding of the All Black jersey and Mohed ALTRAD being convicted of Bribery of the Vice Chairman of World Rugby Bernard Du Pont front of Shirt for FRANCE, is just another example of how Rugby has been used as a "Vehicle" for Fraudsters and Criminals, with no governance. They make the rules.
Guys Scott Robinson is not the alfa and omega as the All Blacks supporters is hopping for and Ian Smith is not the villain everybody is making him to be, All Black forwards are poor, rest of the world as got better, stronger, and smatter, the game is still the same just the opponent's got better.
Too soon to make that call.
After last nights game - I’d say the same about France. They looked poor.
As a passionate Springbok supporter we could see two very critical moments in AB rugby where things changed for you.
You moved the IRB player of the year at flyhalf to fullback (started messing with winning recipes )
You started playing (practicing for that matter) against teams who are not as physical as the boks and now your forwards are not used to it anymore.
Oz basically gave up on rugby (versus other codes like ozzie rules) and you can see the interest is waning hence they dont bring he same vigour and skill as they did.
The pacific nations don't have the skills and players to punish mistakes like us and the eurpoean teams do.
I dont think Razor is going to make the impact you think. He is not a magician. He will make a differense for sure as he will make better tactical decisions, but in your core, the competition you have now will keep your standards low as that is what the new competition has brought.
You played against a french team last night that wasn't on their game, and still beat you.
Your front row is out of their depth (which i have never seen) Locks lose balls in lineouts (never seen before), 0 fetchers (Sam cane was injured but he is not someone you fear), barret at fb is the biggest waste of talent, ever and feels like your backs feed off mistakes only. Mouanga is good but he is not BBarret good.
The Ab's will bounce back but your problems are deeper than you think, it goes back to who you train against.
After tonight's performance agreed book the return flight
France 38 All Blacks 19
I am a South African, the All Blacks should never be underestimated even if its only due to the fact that they are Rugby Royalty, This team can destroy any team on any given day, show some respect!
Shhh...... time to be quiet
I'm not an ABs fan, and I would be completely fine with them not winning the whole thing, but underestimating them is about the stupidest mistake any team can make.