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Dear New Zealand, the All Blacks probably won't win the World Cup
By Finn Morton
If you ask any casual rugby fan to name the best team in the world, chances are they’ll say the All Blacks. The legendary side is synonymous with the sport, and for good reason, too.
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For more than 100 years the All Blacks have set the benchmark in all of sports – yes, all of sports. At the start of this year, the All Blacks had the winningest record out of any team, anywhere.
New Zealand had won 77% of their matches, and as fans will of course remember, the men in black took things to another level during The Rugby Championship.
With coach Ian Foster at the helm, the All Blacks charged to Rugby Championship glory on the back of big wins over Argentina, South Africa and Australia.
The All Blacks also held onto the Freedom Cup after beating the world champion Boks and a 2-0 series sweep over Eddie Jones’ Wallabies saw them retain the Bledisloe Cup as well.
Everything was right with the All Blacks’ world, well, until it wasn’t.
Waking up on the morning of Friday, August 25 in London, there wasn’t a cloud in the sky and birds were chirping. It was a perfect day – rather Disney-esque – but it was clearly a good omen for the All Blacks’ rivals.
Just as New Zealand’s Test with the Springboks at Twickenham got underway, some grey clouds filled the sky. It was raining soon after, and that became the symbolic summary of the All Blacks’ evening.
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The Boks were relentless as they piled on 35 points against a tired New Zealand outfit. Replacement Cam Roigard scored the All Blacks’ only try as they fell to a 35-7 loss.
It was a record defeat.
South African journalist Mark Keohane has bestowed the ‘favourites’ tag upon the Boks after they inflicted such misery and pain upon their helpless rivals.
“Looking at the scoreboard, 35-nil after 65 minutes, I couldn’t believe it. Seven of the nine worst-ever Springbok defeats have come against the old enemy,” Keohane said on Weekend Sport with Jason Pine.
“It was really the statement performance… they go into the World Cup on a high and New Zealand, for me, go in with some serious questions, once again, about their forward pack.”
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But Kiwis would disagree.
‘The All Blacks have to win the World Cup because they’re the All Blacks,’ some fans may question, but the reality of the situation isn’t so generous.
That’s not to say they can’t win the World Cup, but they certainly aren’t favourites. The teams ahead of them are simply better and have been for quite some time.
New Zealand fell to fourth on World Rugby’s rankings, and that appears to be a fairly accurate reflection of where this team is placed ahead of rugby’s showpiece event.
The All Blacks aren’t the favourites to win the upcoming Rugby World Cup. In truth, many would be surprised to see them top their pool ahead of tournament hosts France.
France is a better team than New Zealand, and the same case can be made about other sides.
Ireland and South Africa have both won at least half of their Tests against the All Blacks since the last World Cup, and Les Bleus dominated New Zealand in their most recent meeting.
Ireland, who are the world’s No. 1 team, opened the floodgates when they beat the All Blacks for the first time back in 2016 – in Chicago, of all places.
Since that win at Soldier Field, which is the home of the Chicago Bears, Ireland has beaten New Zealand 57 per cent of the time. Two of their four victories came on New Zealand soil, too.
Don’t put it down to the luck of the Irish, either. This team can play.
Ireland have New Zealand’s number, and they aren’t alone – so do the Boks.
South Africa have won three of six Tests against the All Blacks since their unforgettable World Cup triumph in Japan four years ago.
But that win in London two weeks ago takes the cake; that sets the tone for the World Cup.
The All Blacks, who were practically at full strength, were lost for answers as the South Africans put on a show. It was one of the darkest days in New Zealand rugby history.
If they meet in the quarter-finals stage – which is entirely possible, if not expected – then it’s hard to see how even the mighty All Blacks could reverse a 28-point thumping.
They’re rugby players, not miracle workers.
But having to overcome the threat of Ireland and South Africa in the knockout rounds is just a hypothetical for the All Blacks at this stage. What’s not, though, is Friday night’s World Cup opener at Stade de France.
The All Blacks will look to rain on France’s parade when they take on the tournament hosts at the very same venue they played at the last time these two sides met.
New Zealand were beaten, convincingly, 40-25 by a red-hot French side in 2021. The French crowd were in full voice, and the same is expected for Friday night’s opener.
Over the last two years, Les Bleus have been the best team in the world.
Captain Antoine Dupont has helped take French Rugby to an all-new level ahead of their home World Cup, to the point where they’re expected to win rugby’s ultimate prize.
They’re the best rugby team on the planet, and they’ll have 80,000+ rendering fans singing their praises every time they step onto the field at Stade de France.
Then there’s the All Blacks.
Everything was going to plan before that Test against the Boks, but that changed everything.
The once unconquerable powerhouse of the international game is now an underdog. New Zealand aren’t exactly a fallen giant, but they aren’t feared either.
New Zealand can still win this World Cup, but Kiwis need to accept that they probably won’t.
What can anyone say that BJ Spratt hasn't already said so eloquently. I've been bashing on that NZRU must get its house in order otherwise the AB's are going to suffer a lot more and that isn't good for World Rugby. Its a pity that you have people like Jeff Wilson who could do so much good for NZ Rugby by using his position to speaking the truth and not talking nonsense just to line his pockets. If NZ Rugby is not going to reform and adapt the AB's brand is going to suffer hugely.
We certainly managed to change a great First V into an average Full Back Eden. Having said that, that was 4 years ago.
We don't get any "Practise" in that Super Rugby Bullshit. Without S.A. its not the same.
Gross mismanagement by NZRFU. Failure to "understand" and deal with "serous decrease in player participation thoughout New Zealand Rugby has had a huge affect on the growth of the game.
The NZRFU is still in "Denial" with CTE. The public look at them and say. " Still a huge "Boys club"
Now they see the "emergence" and the "Opportunity in Women's Rugby, as a potential "Cash Cow" They see they can manipulate the new revenue stream. I am sure it won't take the women long to wake up.
New Zealand fans see Razor Robertson as a "breath of fresh air" The NZRFU have never "liked" him because of his "nature"
Graham Henry was the main "influencer" who stopped Razor over Foster.
Henry has and will always have the "Headmaster's Psyche" much the same as Schmidt. They can't handle "players that don't adhere to their thinking, so a coach like Razor was far too much for them to handle.,.
CEO Mark Robinson is a "weak CEO" His handling of the Foster Scenario was "as bad as it gets "
His actions could be shown "as an example of poor leadership" on any business course.
No "Razor" is no magician. He is a highly skilled Rugby Coach who has a "Magic Quality" to communicate with and understand his players, and get the best out of them as players and young men.
He is the Best Rugby Coach in World Rugby at the elite level. He is also a very nice guy. Honest and sincere.
Something the All Blacks haven't had for since Wayne Smith was coach.
Yes Eden the problems New Zealand Rugby have are deep. They are about to get a lot deeper. Silver Lakes are interested in one thing; PROFIT. Egon Durban and Ken Hao aren't happy. If we don't get out of the quarters.......Well that will be interesting. U.S Billionaires have no interest in Rugby, only profit.
Of course the ALTRAD front of shirt Branding of the All Black jersey and Mohed ALTRAD being convicted of Bribery of the Vice Chairman of World Rugby Bernard Du Pont front of Shirt for FRANCE, is just another example of how Rugby has been used as a "Vehicle" for Fraudsters and Criminals, with no governance. They make the rules.
Guys Scott Robinson is not the alfa and omega as the All Blacks supporters is hopping for and Ian Smith is not the villain everybody is making him to be, All Black forwards are poor, rest of the world as got better, stronger, and smatter, the game is still the same just the opponent's got better.
Too soon to make that call.
After last nights game - I’d say the same about France. They looked poor.
As a passionate Springbok supporter we could see two very critical moments in AB rugby where things changed for you.
You moved the IRB player of the year at flyhalf to fullback (started messing with winning recipes )
You started playing (practicing for that matter) against teams who are not as physical as the boks and now your forwards are not used to it anymore.
Oz basically gave up on rugby (versus other codes like ozzie rules) and you can see the interest is waning hence they dont bring he same vigour and skill as they did.
The pacific nations don't have the skills and players to punish mistakes like us and the eurpoean teams do.
I dont think Razor is going to make the impact you think. He is not a magician. He will make a differense for sure as he will make better tactical decisions, but in your core, the competition you have now will keep your standards low as that is what the new competition has brought.
You played against a french team last night that wasn't on their game, and still beat you.
Your front row is out of their depth (which i have never seen) Locks lose balls in lineouts (never seen before), 0 fetchers (Sam cane was injured but he is not someone you fear), barret at fb is the biggest waste of talent, ever and feels like your backs feed off mistakes only. Mouanga is good but he is not BBarret good.
The Ab's will bounce back but your problems are deeper than you think, it goes back to who you train against.
After tonight's performance agreed book the return flight
France 38 All Blacks 19
I am a South African, the All Blacks should never be underestimated even if its only due to the fact that they are Rugby Royalty, This team can destroy any team on any given day, show some respect!
… but they didn’t
Shhh...... time to be quiet
I'm not an ABs fan, and I would be completely fine with them not winning the whole thing, but underestimating them is about the stupidest mistake any team can make.
On the evidence of last night we have hopelessly overestimated them.
Northern Hemisphere choking at home tournaments is 100%. French choking in every World Cup is unquestionable, as is Ireland’s.
Great to have a competitive tournament but the article reeks of recency bias as forgone conclusions are the preserve of the ignorant and the delusional in sport especially when discussing teams with such a tradition of emerging victorious.
Have your little shock jock moment but be prepared to eat your words.
Even on a bad day our legacy is strong. Take the Brits & Irish for instance. Of the 148 test matches played between the four "Home Unions" & the All Blacks, the "Home Unions" have only won a combined total of (drumrollllllll) SIXTEEN test matches. SIXTEEN!!! I mean winning only 16 of 148 anything is embarrassing, right? No wonder others get all excitable when they smell blood. Wins against us rarely happen.
The current ABs phase 2020 to 2023 won't define us if we don't win the RWC. We’ve had poor runs before. We will merely retaliate under Razor. Like it or not, the ABs are, & will always remain, rugby's benchmark. despite the odd feather duster reverting back to a grown ass rooster on the rare occasion. Or the Boks shooting their bolt in a fundraiser.
It only takes a generation to squander a legacy... 😉
Ireland are the most likely. You can swap out their 9/10 with the back ups and their game stays the same pretty much.
We lose Aaron Smith or Jordie Barrett and our preferred game plan turns to custard.
Can’t understand why they’ve gone with Christie over Weber, but Fozzie must have his reasons.
Not true. Ireland aren't the same without Sexton, and especially they aren't the same without JGP. Murray simply can't recycle the ball as fast as JGP can, and there's hard statistical evidence to that.
Ireland's gameplan is extremely dependent on quick ruck recycle. That's what overheats the defensive systems of the opposition and wins Ireland the gainline. Ireland's exceptional handling skills just make the phase grind seem unstoppable and inevitable.
But remove the quick recycle, and all of a sudden you have a bunch of high skilled forwards and backs, who can be defended against. And teams like France and South Africa have more muscle and poundage in their pack.
Against everyone else, Ireland will still look great simply due to the incredible skill level all across their lineup, but if they don't get their quick ball against the two big dogs, their forwards will get bullied.
JGP is the key to their success, and Sexton can put runners through gaps like no one else in history. Take those two away, and you get a team that nearly got bent over by Samoa at home.
They are in the exact same situation as New Zealand. A handful of key players for whom there's no adequate replacement: van der Flier, JGP, Sexton, Ringrose, Hansen, Keenan. Anyone of those goes down, the replacement is a flat out downgrade.
Statistically, no nation is probable to win the world cup
I love watching the kiwi fan implosion in these comments, more of the same please 👍😘
and where is that happening exactly?
Great article from a biased perspective. It’s obvious that the All Black have and always will set the standard for world rugby. And in your heart of hearts the only team you really fear, bravado aside when it comes to the crunch actions speak louder than words. If a meaningless warmup game is what you’re hanging your hat on then you really must be desperate. Good luck though you’re going to need it. You’re right though France is the team we need to worry about. Boks can’t quite handle the big games that count when they face the only team they really fear…
Certainly can't see us beating France not with Jacobsen at number 6, should have pulled finau in, they need someone who can break the line I need to get Leceister in instead of Havili. Dave j
This Australian journalist is so fulsome in his fan-like praise of France, Ireland + SA, perhaps rightly so, but seems to have really relished the ABs defeat at Twickenham -- it's kind of like kicking them when they're down !
Yes of course we may not win this World Cup, nevertheless his negative comments about the ABs prospects makes me hope very much they might prove him wrong !
Yes, & we probably won't win because instead of Foster being the coach, we shud have had Razor Robinson, who has got 'the fire in the belly' & wud have ensured that the All Blacks won.
I'm so looking forward to this tournament because I will enjoy so many rugby anal ..ist eat humble pie 🥳
Lol that statement is true of any team. No team is favourites against the field
Probably but we’ll see. Keep writing them off….
There is so much hype right now that the AB will loose that I'm beginning to think that they might actually win this world cup.
When you are painted as an inferior underdog to win anything the mindset changes to try and prove everyone wrong.
Hopefully, the AB can do it. They do have the potential to win it, all they need is confidence on that day.
Hopefully Foz doesn't stick to his old format and plays, everyone knows and can read him well now.
The players are all talented, maybe they can bring the cup home all on their own. leave Foz behind in France, not many would miss him
Whatever. Already won 3 bloody times, do we really need to win it again? Just wanna see running rugby and it's ok if the hosts win. Ireland, make and survive quarters weekend and then you can toot your little horn.
Wrote something and lost it. Was so apt. 30 points to the AB
People are not just discounting the All Blacks. They’re going by what they saw in the last 12 months and most recently, against the Boks. If the same team shows up against France they don’t have a chance. France has home advantage on everyone. Hopefully the All Blacks don’t get humiliated again. Their QF game will be most telling, either against Ireland or the Boks. If I were NZ I’d want to play the Boks - Ireland is on a whole different plane now. They now hold the aura that the ABs had for quite some time. I don’t think anyone can beat Ireland. Having said so, can’t wait to see how the Boks fair against Ireland in their pool match.
What a BS article. Did this journalist even check any of the facts before writing this garbage. He says for the last 100 years all blacks have been the dominant side. This is a lie if you look at all the games between all blacks and boks between 1921 and 1981 there were 37 games of that the springboks won 20 of those game while the all blacks won 15 leaving 2 games a draw. Like I said garbage article!
Lol. The current record stands at 62 v 39, but hey don’t let facts get in the way of your convenient sample size.
Article is totally fair, and I believe I can say for the majority of ABs we dont expect to be picking up the Webb Ellis Trophy this time around. That said, on the day each of the Top 4 teams in the World Rankings can beat the other.
But as the article points out - Ireland, Boks, and France have done very well against the ABs in recent years. Let's look at the records since RWC2015 the end of the McCaw / Carter era.
Ireland: P8 (P4 in Fozzie era)
Ireland wins 5 (3)
AB wins 3 (1)
Springboks: P13 (P6 in Fozzie era)
Boks wins: 3 (3)
ABs wins: 10 (3)
France: P6 (P1 in Fozzie era)
France wins: 1 (1)
ABs wins: 4 (0)
So, while I would still maintain on any day these top 4 teams can beat each other, the reality is - the probablity of an AB has shifted quite signicantly since RWC19 - the start of the Fozzie ear.
I think we can all see a lametable story under Fozzie - his win percentage Ireland 25%, Boks 50% and France 0%. And equally alarmingly is even after sacking two weak coaches, and bringing in Ryan and Schmidt, the ABs psyche remains fragile.
I was at Twickenham last week - it was embarrassing. But I will not read too much into it, other than NZRU arrogance and Fozzie and his coaching team's stupidity....
Flying into the UK arriving only on Sunday effectively 4 days before match day was not good planning. Furthermore 12 of the match day 23 had not played competitively since the MCG four weeks earlier. So as I sat there watching the ABs worst performance, I was comforted by the probable reason for them being off the pace, inaccurate and lack any leadership decision-making.
What is unexcsubale however, is even with Ryan and Schmidt supporting Dr Fozzie - the ABs psyhe is smashed. The most humbling was not Twickenham with the Boks but Twicjenham with England, then the Wallabies turning around a huge AB lead, the Japanese running us close and that's before I talk about the Pumas and the Irish series.
A lot is on his shoulders, and when I say his - I mean RAZOR's - ABs will need all his skill to recover these last 4 years IF THE LAST FOUR YEARS ARE RECOVERABLE NOW THAT THE AB AURA HAS BURST
I agree with your comments. I don't read too much in that result against South Africa at Twikers. They were really set up to fail. That was our only warm up game while that was SA's third. South Africa obviously really wanted to make a statement and we were obviously under done.
I think the nature of test rugby has changed and the margins are small, so if you are not on your game totally you will get punished.
I think we can win the cup but I think it is unlikely....but I will be supporting them right through to the end.
I do think Razor will make a big difference and am looking forward to his influence. One of my main criticisms of Fozzie is he has not been bold enough with selections. The introduction of Degroot, Fletcher Newell etc have been forced on him rather than inspired selections. I think Razor will be totally different.
Having said all that.....Go the AB's!
I think the ABs will win after what I saw in the rugby championship and Bled. People have short memories.
Yeah but Argentina were underdone as were the Boks, Aussie are going for a pretty savage rebuild and were much better in the second test.
If the ABs get going they’ll be hard to stop, but long gone are the days when they could play like they all had hangovers and still win.
The biggest truth in this piece that rang true with me was “nobody fears NZ anymore”, that’s very true and that is fozzies fault. The reason the 2010-15 All Blacks won 99% of their matches was because of that, everyone feared playing them so they had already lost the game before kick off, those days are long gone now and Scott Robertson has a chance to create that aura again. There is nothing between 1-4 in the world anyone can beat anyone however the winner of this RWC will come down to depth in key positions as injuries will happen, luck and the side that gives less cards
I don’t believe that nobody fears NZ anymore. They have the talent. It’s Just not clicking at the moment.
I don't think Scott Robertson will be the miracle worker kiwis hope he will be. During the All Black's good years the quality of coaching of opposition teams was generally rubbish. Now, the rest of the world have caught up and it's a lot more difficult.
Even Australia has got a decent coach now.
Actually, I don’t think the All Blacks will win this World Cup. I say this as an All Blacks fan, but the form over the last cycle has been too inconsistent. They can look good in some matches, but poor in the next. That said, if they get their preparation and team selection right, they can still beat anybody and I think they will have a few things to say about who does eventually win it.
Enough with the talk. Let's play
Article should read “(insert team here) probably won’t win the World Cup.” Because no team is being given greater than 50% likelihood of winning. However if you look at odds around the world All Blacks are favourites for good reason, Followed by France, SA, Ireland, daylight, then England. So apart from highlighting his ignorance to the readers, Finn’s article doesn’t add much to what we already know.
Journalists elevates himself to prophet. Sees the unknowable. Sound out words...
Fozzie as head coach has never won anything.
He sets records but only ones that involve the words ‘the worst ever’
AB out in the group stages perchance?
ABs have won the Rugby Championship, Bledisloe and Freedom Cup every year he's been coach. Whilst he's had a lot of firsts, you couldn't be more wrong.
"Ireland have New Zealand’s number, and they aren’t alone – so do the Boks.
South Africa have won three of six Tests against the All Blacks "
3/6 doesn't mean team has the All Blacks number, nor do Ireland, the stats people quote are taken of course from the most recent win stretch by the team against the All Blacks. A case in point could be made NZ have won 2 of the last 3 against SA or 10 of the last 15. Against Ireland since Soldier Field -it is 5-3 Ireland hardly dominance especially since NZ pummeled them at the last WC- I think the ABs can win the cup and would be surprised if they lost to France in the opener.
Well they did..got done up front again..
And tonight France beat them comfortably. What do you say now? Not the ABs of old.. Very average.
An accountant's response that forgets the dynamics of the teams.
Well you can based the 10 out of 15 on the current coaching staff or players can you? Stop being so cocky.
Bang on. Everyone has everyone else's number. People say the blueprint to beat the ABs is clear. Smash them up front, rush up and shut down their backs, pin them in their own half and apply scoreboard pressure. Only thing: That's The Formula To Beat Everyone. NZ knows how to beat SA and Ire, Ire knows how to beat France and NZ, France knows how to beat NZ and Ire, etc. This will be the second WC in a row most kiwis weren't expecting to win - nothing especially new, and no special insight in pointing out the fourth ranked team in the world might have a lower chance of winning than the three above them.