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Desperate to crack the playoffs’ Blues - Super Rugby 2018 Preview

There remain many more questions than answers when evaluating the chances of the Blues in Super Rugby 2018.

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Progress has been slow and steady under coach Tana Umaga, entering his third season at the helm. But the key determinant on whether that progress is trending sharply upwards will come if they can haul themselves off the bottom of the New Zealand conference log and reach those elusive playoffs for the first time since Pat Lam’s 2011 charges.

It can be done. But there are several caveats.

The first is that they stay largely injury-free, always a challenge in this attritional competition. Their depth is untested and shallow. Isaac Salmon anyone? (He was Tasman’s No 4 prop, if you’re asking). Matt Johnson? (He was a midfielder for the stuttering Southland Stags in 2017). Flanker Blake Gibson, Auckland’s player of the season, is out until April after shoulder surgery.

That leaves a lot on the broad shoulders of Jerome Kaino in his final campaign for the franchise, and lock Patrick Tuipulotu, who needs to start 2018 the way he finished 2017. Ofa Tu’ungafasi is the man to show us he can fill Charlie Faumuina’s considerable boots. Former All Blacks prop Ben Afeaki is the new scrum coach and he will be tasked with wringing every bit of power and technique out of Tu’ungafasi, a long-term All Blacks project.

The full-strength backline has an imposing look about it, starting with newly minted captain Augustine Pulu, who knows he needs a big few months to regain his All Blacks jersey. Some may not have heard of Stephen Perofeta. We can assure you the No 10 is the real deal, and just needs to show us consistent game management to augment his classy touches. Bryn Gatland will kick the goals as back-up.

We await the full flowering of Sonny Bill Williams’ attacking game. We know the 32-year-old can tackle and offload, but we saw little of the other subtle touches for the 2017 Blues. He did, however, start to bring those on the All Blacks’ northern tour. George Moala, probably at centre, will seek a strong campaign before he heads offshore.

In the outside backs, try this for a mix of pace and X-factor: Rieko Ioane, Matt Duffie, Melani Nanai, Michael Collins and young Caleb Clarke.

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So, can Umaga unlock the full potential of this unit? So many questions, so few answers. But they are more than capable if the stars align.

One to watch

Caleb Clarke is a real chip off the ol’ block, son of former All Black Eroni Clarke, who played the last of his 51 games for the Blues in 2000.

Clarke junior is not yet 19 but was in sizzling form on the New Zealand Under 20s wing last season. He won three caps for Auckland and looked at home in the Mitre 10 Cup but failed to kick on, partially due to injury. If he can crack the Blues’ starting XV, and receive decent service from the midfield, he could again show us his wares.

2018 Predictions

New Zealand Conference Placing: 4th

Player of the Year: Augustine Pulu

Rookie of the Year: Caleb Clarke

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Best Signing: Leni Apisai

Breakout Player: Akira Ioane

Squad Movements

InsLeni Apisai (Hurricanes) Isaac Salmon (Tasman), Mike Tamoaieta (North Harbour), Dalton Papali’i (Auckland), Glenn Preston (North Harbour), Jonathan Ruru (Otago), Otere Black (Hurricanes)/Dan Kirkpatrick (Wellington), Bryn Gatland (North Harbour), Matt Johnson (Southland), Tamati Tua (Northland), Caleb Clarke (Auckland)

Outs: Hame Faiva (Treviso, Italy), Charlie Faumuina (Toulouse, France), Steven Luatua (Bristol, England), Brandon Nansen (Stade Francais, France), Sam Prattley, Billy Guyton, Matt Vaega, Declan O’Donnell, Rene Ranger (La Rochelle, France), Ihaia West (Hurricanes), Piers Francis (Northampton, England)

Squad: Leni Apisai, Matt Moulds, James Parsons, Alex Hodgman, Sione Mafileo, Pauliasi Manu, Isaac Salmon, Mike Tamoaieta, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, Josh Goodhue, Scott Scrafton, Patrick Tuipulotu, Jimmy Tupou, Blake Gibson, Akira Ioane, Jerome Kaino, Dalton Papali’i, Glenn Preston, Kara Pryor, Murphy Taramai, Sam Nock, Augustine Pulu (c), Jonathan Ruru, Otere Black/Daniel Kirkpatrick, Bryn Gatland, Stephen Perofeta, TJ Faiane, Sonny Bill Williams, Matt Johnson, George Moala, Tamati Tua, Rieko Ioane, Caleb Clarke, Melani Nanai, Matt Duffie, Michael Collins, Jordan Trainor

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M
MS 41 minutes ago
Why Blair Kinghorn should be nailed on as the Lions starting 15

I can see arguments for both Kinghorn, and Keenan starting for the Lions. But I’m less convinced by some of the claims (clearly partisan) supporters are using to argue the merits of one over the other.


For example, a number of Ireland supporters have suggested Kinghorn is ‘defensively weak’. That’s patently false - or at least on the evidence of this 6N, he’s certainly no weaker there than Keenan is, who is presumably the comparative standard they’re using. Keenan was both shrugged off in contact, and beaten on the edge for pace, a number of times during this competition.


Equally, Scotland supporters arguing Kinghorn is the more capable ‘rugby player’ seem to have overlooked the (frankly sizeable) body of evidence demonstrating that Keenan is an excellent ball in hand distributor and decision maker. So that doesn’t hold up under scrutiny either.


I don’t think there’s all that much to choose between them, and either would be a strong choice. I think it would be really interesting from a pure rugby perspective to see Keenan playing a ‘Scotland-esque’ style of high tempo attacking rugby. Either coming into the line more routinely as first receiver, or being swung as a pendulum and getting the ball on the edge against a stretched defence.


That’s assuming Andy Farrell goes that route, of course. He may well just opt for his Ireland system instead, and populate it with the likes of Henshaw, Ringrose, Lowe and Keenan. I’m sure that would win the series. Quite what effect it might have on a Lions audience who were expecting something other than ‘Ireland on tour, but wearing red’ would remain to be seen.


As for the debate at FB, the only ‘eye test’ difference I feel exists is in the pace of rugby Kinghorn (Toulouse? Scotland?) tends to play. His passing/offload game feels crisper and higher tempo than Keenan’s - and as we saw in Paris, his pace and eye for a gap from deep are superior.


But again, that will only prove a decisive factor if Andy Farrell wants to play that way. If all he wants from his FB is to sit deep, field high balls, and mop up then there’s little between these two equally excellent players.

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