The British and Irish Lions tour is still just a speck on the horizon, more than six months distant, but already the rumour mills are grinding into action. Wallaby supremo Joe Schmidt’s contract expires after the third Test of the series on 2 August, and after that all bets are off.
Despite a run of relative success in 2024, and clear signs of improvement after a disastrous World Cup, the latest word is Schmidt may stick to the plan and quit after the Lions tour. He originally signed a two-year deal with Rugby Australia on the understanding his son Luke, who suffers from severe epilepsy, would limit his involvement to one half of a full four-year World Cup cycle.
As Schmidt commented just before taking up post as Ian Foster’s assistant with the All Blacks in 2023: “It is difficult. I remember an epileptologist once saying to me that we know more about the bottom of the ocean than what goes on between our ears.”
![Joe Schmidt](https://eu-cdn.rugbypass.com/webp-images/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Australia_JoeSchmidt_shout_vWalesNov24_resized_GettyImages-2185429854-1024x683.jpg.webp?maxw=766&comp=95)
If he does walk, RA will be in the unenviable position of having to appoint its fourth national coach in as many years. It is a turbulent situation, and it raises the spectre of whether Australia can afford to install another foreigner as head coach.
A slight note of pique was evident in CEO Phil Waugh’s comments about the political uncertainties last week.
“We expect to sit down with Joe and work through the plan post-Lions, as we have said [previously],” Waugh revealed.
“A really important point, [one] that we continue to make, is that we do what we say we are going to do, and Joe was always committed through to the end of the Lions.
“We have done a lot of heavy lifting, there is progress in the Wallaby environment, he has surrounded himself with really good people, and now it’s important to give players and staff certainty.”
RA’s succession planning in the event of Schmidt’s departure is already rolling down the slipway, but there are some significant snags to overcome. Two of the major candidates, Les Kiss in Queensland and Dan McKellar at the Waratahs, are either at the start, or in a reboot of their Super Rugby careers.
Kiss has completed his debut season on a three-year deal with the Reds, while McKellar has yet to pick up the reins at Daceyville after an early release from the Leicester Tigers in the UK. Both are reestablishing their credentials back home. The other options are to offer Schmidt some leeway in the form of flexi-time, fitting work in around his family commitments so he can complete the four-year term; or to appoint another foreigner, maybe even one of Schmidt’s own choosing.
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It is the last possibility which foreshadows Australia’s future as a rugby nation most darkly. The installation of foreign coaches can be a double-edged sword. Appointments from the present or recent past, such as Andy Farrell for Ireland, Shaun Edwards in France; Felix Jones, Aled Walters and now Tony Brown with the Springboks, and Eddie Jones in England have unquestionably provided a huge fillip to the national game in those countries. They bring a welcome infusion of new ideas and a natural lack of parochialism with them.
But there is a downside. There can be a problem returning the game back to its permanent custodians, and this has been for the most part, the experience in Australia and Wales. The similarities between the two nations are too obvious to ignore.
Wales entered the professional era all at sea, bottoming out at the deep end of the ocean with a 96-13 rout by the Springboks at Loftus Versveld in the summer of 1998. They lost all four provincial matches in South Africa on the same trip, and that triggered the appointment of Sir Graham Henry, the outstanding Kiwi coach of the Super Rugby-winning Auckland Blues.
Henry and his successor, Sir Steve Hansen, laid the groundwork for Wales’ first Grand Slam in 27 years in 2005, achieved under the stewardship of a Welshman groomed for the handover of power, Mike Ruddock. Within one year Ruddock was gone, ousted by player power and internal political wrangling. His replacement, Gareth Jenkins, fared even less well, posting a 30% win rate before Wales were unceremoniously dumped out of the 2007 World Cup at the pool stage by Fiji.
Wales had circled all the way back to square one, and the only perceived solution was another booster jab from abroad in the form of Warren Gatland. The man from the Waikato went on to post the most successful record in Welsh professional history over the next 11 years [2008-2019], taking his charges on an unprecedented five-match winning run over South Africa, claiming four Six Nations titles and reaching two World Cup semi-finals along the way.
When he retired from national duty at the end of the 2019 World Cup, the whirlpool of failure was waiting to suck a once-proud nation down into yet darker depths. Aucklander Wayne Pivac delivered a 38% win rate before Wales reached out for the Gatty-fix again. This time around, the box of pills was empty. Gatland has led Wales on a 12-match losing run, one record he would prefer to erase from his CV.
Australia have been following in Wales’ footsteps, roughly seven years behind. By 2005, the initial burnish of the Eddie Jones effect had worn off. His successor John ‘Knuckles’ Connolly first discovered the Wallaby players “like beaten down sheepdogs. If you walked in a room, they would have their heads down and were scared to do anything. There was no leadership. There was no development. It was a total void that took nearly a year to rebuild.”
It also took less than 12 months for Connolly himself to come under the media microscope, with 1984 Grand-Slammer Simon Poidevin lamenting the move towards “a conservative, risk-averse game. He should fall on his sword. We can’t do that. The Australian public will only support the Wallabies playing the way they have historically.”
Like ‘Ted’ in Wales, ex-Crusaders supremo Robbie Deans was the outstanding Super Rugby candidate when he was appointed as Australia’s first overseas head coach in 2008. Deans went on to earn the only win rate above 50% [58%] for Wallaby coaches in the past 17 years, leading Australia to its last Tri Nations victory and a World Cup semi-final in 2011. But Deans resigned amid rancour two years later, with ex-Wallaby great David Campese proclaiming: “unfortunately Robbie Deans has struggled to understand how we play the game in Australia.”
Deans was not alone in his misapprehension. When the Wallabies cycled back to a natural-born Aussie, Ewen McKenzie, things didn’t get better – they got worse. The Randwick man was the victim of some spectacular politicking worthy of the Ruddock era in Wales, finding himself among the coaching homeless in only his second year in the role.
Australia has followed Wales down the rabbit hole ever since, see-sawing between the home-grown and the Kiwi import: a violently passionate six-year affair with Waratah Michael Cheika followed by a far more sober transaction with another man of the Waikato, Dave Rennie; Rennie himself uprooted less than 10 months before the 2023 World Cup by the return of the prodigal son, Eddie Jones. Knuckles again: “How did we end up with Eddie again? He is full of it. He talks a great game but plays a terrible one. He was the captain’s pick by a chairman who just came into the job. It’s a bloody disaster.”
Within 10 months, the shooting arc of ‘Comet Eddie’ was spent, and another New Zealander was brought in to save the sinking ship. The story will be all too familiar to followers of Welsh rugby, they will be nodding their heads in rueful acknowledgement. In practice, adding overseas IP has only accelerated the destruction of coach education within the country, and succession planning – the seamless handover of power back to a native coach – has thus far proved to be an impossible task for both nations.
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And that is Schmidt’s primary objective now: to pick exactly the right moment to empower to an Australian supremo as his natural successor, at a moment when the vital rugby signs in the country are burgeoning rather than dwindling. How, and when to leave the game in better state than the one in which he found it. Australia stands on the cusp of doing both itself and Wales a great favour, by discovering that elusive element in its coaching framework: continuity.
The recent game between the two nations in Cardiff represented probably Australia’s peak performance on tour, and it will have given Schmidt plenty of food for thought in relation to the blend of his back-five forward unit for the Lions. Nick Frost called the lineouts from number four, Will Skelton at five and an extra lineout option in the shape of Seru Uru at six instead of skipper Harry Wilson.
In this earlier article I showed just how Australia drove the maul so efficiently with Skelton in the second row after the catch had been made, but the ease with which the Wallabies won their own throw [12 out of 13] and pressured the Wales delivery [four steals out of 12] with one fewer receiver in the team was a surprise.
It was also a credit to the impeccable design fashioned by Wallaby lineout guru Geoff Parling. With the starters on the field, the throw was spread between Frost [five takes], Uru [four] with Bobby Valetini as the third option with three takes. How did the ex-Tigers, England and Lions lineout captain get the right people to the right spots before the formation of the drive?
One of the keys to the improvement of the Wallaby lineout has been the development of Valetini and Wilson as the third option, and Australia were twice successful using the same formation with a throw to Bobby V at the tail. Skelton starts at the front but shifts up the line past Uru and Frost to become the short-side lifter on the Wallaby eight. When you see this picture, you know the drive must convert.
When Uru was the target in the middle, Skelton did not have to move from his post to front-lift for the Queenslander.
By the end of the clip the big man has split the Welsh D asunder and there is fresh air ahead of him.
Throwing to Frost? No problem, just drop Seru out of the middle of the line and let the La Rochelle leviathan move up to block.
Want to drive for the corner flag? Simply leave the French-based giant where he is, at the front of the line to lead the drive out.
Can Australia get it right before the Lions arrive, with their army of 40,000 fans in support next July? A critical part of the process will be Schmidt’s decision about his own future, and the timing of his departure from the Wallabies.
Is there a home-grown coach ready to take on the full weight of that responsibility, and will there finally be some continuity between foreigner and native? Can New Zealander usher in Australian, or for that matter Welshman, with no loss of coaching impetus? The past in both countries utters a resounding ‘no’ but history is always ripe for the changing. As Schmidt put it so succinctly, “we know more about the bottom of the ocean than what goes on between our ears.”
Schmidt has always been hard to lockdown, long-term. His reasons are understandable and it's very impressive that his priorities are his family.
Surely there is scope for a blended, hybrid role now. Remote working/coaching. It's an easier idea post-Lockdown and international rugby isn't usually more than a dozen games per calender year.
It could be huge step backwards for the wallabies if they don't get recruitment right.
We know precisely who this Xmas gift was for, Nick. I've got out the red wine, a cigar and have my feet up. Let the fun begin.
Coaching Australia has been a poisoned chalice for several over recent years. The problems that need to be resolved are:-
1. Retention of players & not losing them to other sports.
2. Development of players & coaches.
3. Improve financial status of Australian rugby ( currently parlous ).
4. Win more games than lose.
You can't develop non Tah Australian coaches if you don't ever give them the opportunity. Which is exactly how kiwis and the Tahs want it.
Coach education in the Dick Marks era used to be top-drawer. Now it isn't.
Oh dear
Not my idea of a topic to generate positivity, .... though it should be Nick.
The very reason that this issue unleashes the troglodyte community that forever keeps Rugby Union in the background is the same reason that the coach should come from OS.
How pathetic and narrow minded it is for the 4th ranked football code in the country to be forced to hire an Australian coach.
With the exception of Kiss, local coaches know SFA.
McKenna and Larkham aren't terrible, they just aren't top shelf. They have been moved on by top class outfits after minimal success.
We should be aiming for the very best available if Schmidt moves on.
If the gains made by Schmidt just trickle away, Rugby Union will drop back to being the laughing stock it was under Aussie Eddie, and potentially never recover.
You can't have repeated last chances with a sporting community that is used to excellence in the other sports they follow.
Kepping Schmidt one way or another has to be the only solution. "Coaching Director ", Attack Coach, anything, but keep him.
If he isn't head coach, but still there somehow then the new guy has to the very best available, irrespective of where he comes from.
I think Kiss would be a sensible choice if it is to be an Aussie AD, he has accrued a huge envelope of international experience in SA and Ireland and England. But Joe staying on would have to be the preference....
He knows how to set standards and the players obv respond to that challenge.
Great read on a fascinating topic, Nick. Thanks as always.
My gut feel is that Joe Schmidt won't carry on through to the next RWC. He is at the stage, and age, in his life , that a further two years in a very high pressure coaching job would not be a good thing for either himself or his family. The fact that he remains based in Taupo seems a significant pointer, I would have thought. I believe he has a round trip of 12 hrs driving just to get on a plane to Australia.
Amongst the many good things Joe Schmidt has achieved to this point is that the WB's are now a more enticing prospect to coach going forward.
Tbh, the only Australian coach I would see stepping up and developing the WB's further would be Les Kiss. He has far more in his CV than any other Australian. He now has 23 years of coaching Union,starting with a defence role with the Boks, then back to Australia with the Waratahs. Overseas again for nine years in Ireland, which included 5 years as defence coach with the national team, during which he was interim head coach for two games, both wins. His last years in Ireland were with Ulster, even then a team beginning a decline. So that spell was his least successful. Finally the spell with London Irish, where I felt Kiss was doing very well, till the club collapsed financially.
Of the other Australian options, Dan McKellar has a lot to prove post the year with Leicester. Stephen Larkham has not, in my view, yet shown outstanding qualities as a coach. Nether man has anything close to Kiss's experience. Some may see this as being harsh on both men, ignoring good work they have done. But is how I see it.
Looking outside Australia, I would see Vern Cotter as a strong possibility, if interested. His time with Scotland was outstanding. Ronan O'Gara, I would think, might well be another possibility, though he has no international experience. Jake White ? Maybe .
Kiss was doing very well indeed with Irish but Ulster had other off field issues going on, to say the least!!
Not sure it would be fair to judge McKellar on Leicester, it’s a tough gig with that dressing room and looked more like a poor fit more than anything else.
Would be a shock if O’Gara would touch it, he publicly dismissed Wales recently but covets France, England and Ireland - in that order.
Cotter would be interesting and he’s got qualities but he’s also got some elements of Eddie Jones about him believe it or not - he had the Scotland wc squad in camp, believe it or not, with the French foreign legion and ripping the heads off chickens!
Cheers Miz, and happy Christmas to you and yours!
I agree with just about everything you've said. Schmidt to continue his good work, and if not Joe, then Les...
Nick, if you start Uru then how do you balance that with the leadership that Wilson brings?
He seems to be the best captain we have had in a while, though still not quite the dominant player we need (though his sheer desire and workrate is applauded).
Does McReight have it in him to be thrown in as captain? Can Wilson be the '97 Jason Leonard role?
On the coaching, I hope plan B is to keep Joe involved in any capacity as attack coach and including on the selector couch.
I don't mind the idea of Larkham with Joe in his ear...jeez it would be good to see Brums make a final but he is also the one who coached Wright, Ikitau and Noah into their strongest super seasons after the disappointment of 2023.
I would shift the captaincy to Fraser JM, and send Harry to the bench. In a World Cup format Joe could prob play either of those back fives with some conviction - Skelton-Frost-Uru-Bobby-Fraser, or Williams-Frost-Harry-Bobby-Fraser.
Yes they have to keep Joe involved even if it is in some kind of consultant capacity. They badly need that continuity and I'm sure Les Kiss would not object to Joe perched on his shoulder for a season or so...
The clear and obvious answer here is to keep JS, on whatever terms necessary, beyond the Lions IF he is willing. Why would anyone get rid of a coach that is making clear and obvious progress from a real tricky starting position? Beyond that is where the planning and development needs to be if they have home grown options available.
As always, outsiders can see these things more clearly than ppl on the inside Ed!👍
Just hire a South African, you know you want to. Get Jake White in, he has coveted the job for many years or give the job to Franco Smith, he would jump at it given the opportunity to take the Glasgow game to the Wallabies. Johan Ackermann is no longer free but he would accept any forthcoming offers and if you feel like poaching a young talent go for JP Pietersen or Joey Mongalo who have earned a pretty decent reputation with the Sharks. Jacques Fourie would make you defend all day so he's a no go but Dobbo will make you play the right way and with his creative writing qualification he will put a fanciful spin on any story. Cash Van Rooyen knows how to get a tune out of young players and make a sum equal more than its parts. If you are feeling like taking a wild punt go for attack guru and winner of the award for most biased SA rugby pundit of all time then your man is Swys De Bruin. If you are in the market for some almost South Africans just go for Plumtree, Felix Jones or even for the new kid on the block, Tony Brown. If you are feeling really adventurous and I mean really adventurous plump for Alistair Coetzee who would I'm sure love a change after the regular beatings he took with Namibia and of course if you wanna play it safe just get in Jacques Nienaber who will give you his own refined, extra-special brand of strong South African conservatism. Lets be real though, the best appointment would be Stevie L who coaches half the Aussie team already so why not give him the other half and see what he can do. A good coach who has trained with the best and whom has a good world view of the game. He is ready for higher honours, has the pedigree and is also well liked by the media. He is a world cup winner and is greatly respected in the game. A worthy candidate for sure.
Jakes' back in SA and coaching in the URC, so I reckon the moment to coach the WBs has passes SK.
I take the point about Larkham but he still hasn't won anything yet, either at Munster of back at the Brumbies.
Australian rugby needs to learn to do it by itself, not with nefarious outside influence. It is very important for Australian rugby's self confidence, which taken a beating from kiwi coaches and constantly being told, mainly by obnoxious kiwis, we are never good enough.
And their coaches have made sure of that with ridiculous selections and gameplans, like kick the ball back to the All Blacks all the time, suckers !
South African coaches still have the stigma in Australia of being 10 man rugby merchants even though that's not true for Johan Ackerman, Franco Smith. I think even Jake White has moved away from that style. Rassie's Boks are more adventurous this year than people would have expected.
This truly is OJohn's Eminem moment 🤣
Let's see what he can put in front of us in the way of evidence!
Another good article Nick, and yes the similarities between RA and the WRU are so obvious you would think they have been swapping class notes.
It is clear that the problems in both Australia and Wales are structural and go way beyond who is the Head Coach and his place of birth.
What ever imminent decision is made in Wales about the Head Coach, Gatland has still got enough credit in the bank to be seen as an adopted Welshman.
And a far as leaving the team in a better place than he found it. .....Eddie set the bar so low that Joe cannot fail and whatever happens with the Lions Tour any sane Wallabies fan can see that he is taking the team forward.
Nicks a fxxking wanker with his head up his arse his articles are gobshite
They would have to keep Gatland involved as he's accumulated so much IP about how to keep Wales winning in lean times Jon. Maybe not as H/C now but as some kind of performance director?
Spot on.
Deans didn't resign. He was sacked by the ARU because after 6 long years as Wallabies coach, playing Tah favorites, and Australians having almost completely lost interest in rugby due to Deans' Tah favoritism and bumbling, the Wallabies were a complete and utter shambles of a team. We fell back from being ranked 2 to about 5 I think.
He started well on the back of John Connollys nauseatingly boring coaching but it was downhill soon after. Deans came close to destroying Australian rugby. Kiwis wanted him to keep coaching the Wallabies forever and were outraged at his sacking. Just absurd.
Again a wrong-headed history of Deans in Aussie John. Deans was appointed because of a crisis in Aussie rugby, he did not create it. Read even the short snippets I've included in the piece!
Aussie coaches before and since have come in for just as much criticism if not more from their own ppl. Cherry-picking Deans out of the rubble makes no sense at all. If the decline began with anyone it was Eddie + John O'Neill.
Deans won a rugby championship and made a rwc semi-final.
Kiwi coaches have destroyed Wales. They have almost stripped the welsh population of any passion for rugby, of any desire for young welsh boys to play rugby, or represent their country. Who wants to play for a narky know it all kiwi, except kiwis ? Not Rees -Zammit.
Kiwi coaches are vindictively trying to do the same to Australia.
Of course Australia's next coach or coaches must be an Australian but they must also not be from the Tahs, like Cheika or Eddie Jones. They just can't help themselves choosing hopeless Tah pets, like Foley, or Phipps, or Hooper, or Beale, or Mumm, or Porecki or Donaldson over much better Australian players, which cripples the team and it's morale.
But the Tahs don't care. They put themselves before Australian rugby and if they can't justify a Tah coach, a compliant kiwi who will do the same thing is just as good.
I'm amazed, sort of, that so many Kiwis, Argentinians, Welshmen and Scotsmen, want Joe Schmidt to ignore his son's welfare, just for the opportunity to undermine Australian rugby, again. It is very callous.
It is also callous in my opinion for Joe Schmidt to see undermining Australian rugby as more important than his son's welfare, despite having promised his son and his wife after his indulgent Ireland coaching gig, that he would spend more time with them and pulling his weight at home.
What sort of bitter and twisted individual sees a vindictive campaign against Australia as more crucial than looking after his family ? Are all kiwis this vindictive ? Some I know are not and are equally flabbergasted at Schmidt's chutzpah in ignoring his previous promises to his family, to coach the Wallabies to failure, from NZ, whenever he is there of course .....
It shows just how desperate and mean spirited the Tahs are as well, to want to insist he stays away from his family, just so more Tah players get a spot in the Wallabies. It is beyond callous.
Dear kiwis, please just bugger off out of Australian rugby. It's dragging you down as well by making sure you have no real competition. How dumb can you be ?
The usual nonsense John.
Soccer has made inroads of its own accord, aided and abetted by the Union sitting on its hands with the grass roots/clubs and making a pig's easr of regionalisation back in 2002-03. Any Welshman can tell you that.
Oh dear. If that's what you really think, I feel sorry for you. Joe has improved the WBs out of sight and he only picked a minority of Tahs to do it. You do not know nearly enough about his family situation to be able to comment on it.
You are pure comedy gold mate🤣
OJohn....How about you keep your crass comment about the rugby or the politics. Commenting on anyones family or personal circumstances is way out of order and you should be removed from this site for doing so.
What exactly did the tahs do to you in your childhood? I've never seen someone's thoughts so dominated by a sports team they dislike. Wait, are you secretly working for the tahs by making them sound more appealing?
‘Try to do it’. Lol. We already have. Coup d’état (thanks autocorrect!) complete.
Enjoy losing.