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Don’t rule out shock away wins in Premiership semi-finals – Andy Goode

David Ribbans, Lewis Ludlum and Courtney Lawes will be looking to unsettle the Saracens pack (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

There may only have been six away wins in a couple of decades’ worth of Premiership semi-finals but I just have a feeling we could be in for a surprise East Midlands derby in the final.

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The home side wins a massive 84% of the time at this stage of the competition and there have never been two away semi-final victories in the same campaign but it’s been a crazy season in English club rugby and I can see history being made.

The champions winning away at Sale might not be a huge shock, especially after they won six league games on the bounce before defeat to Quins last week, and I just think they might have the edge in the backs with a potentially very even forward battle in prospect.

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If Leicester are to make it to the final, they’ll have to keep the Curry twins as quiet as possible and they’ve been on another level to most other back rowers in the league this season but the packs look well-matched on paper.

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I think Tigers will target Rob du Preez at outside centre though. He’s been playing fly half for most of the season and they’ll want to send multiple runners down his channel and force him to make big decisions in the most difficult position on the field to defend.

It’s going to be a cagey, tactical contest between two teams that play quite a similar brand of rugby and they’re the two sides that kick the most in the Premiership so the aerial battle is going to be key.

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If I was Richard Wigglesworth, I’d have picked Mike Brown at full back every day of the week for that very reason but he does have Freddie Steward and Anthony Watson in the back three, who are both excellent under the high ball.

Harry Potter is probably the player that George Ford will look to target with his spiral bombs but I’m sure Leicester will be peppering an inexperienced Sharks back three with kicks as well and Arron Reed, who has been electric with ball in hand, could be in for a long day as he’s giving up quite a bit in height compared to the Tigers back three.

Ashton Leicester red card decision
(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Interestingly, Chris Ashton hasn’t been selected despite all the efforts the club went to in order to clear his name this week but I don’t think that will have been a distraction and he didn’t feature in last year’s semi-final before returning in the final so he might yet get one more outing.

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In the other semi-final, even Northampton appear to be talking down their chances by saying they have nothing to lose, which I don’t agree with, but Saracens aren’t the force they once were and Saints are lethal in attack.

The return of Courtney Lawes, along with the likes of Dave Ribbans, Lewis Ludlam and Juarno Augustus, should improve Saints’ physicality and that was definitely an area of weakness earlier in the campaign.

Only Newcastle have leaked more tries than Northampton in the Premiership and, despite being the top try scorers, they’ve still conceded more than they’ve scored so they’re going to have to defend better than they have done this season in the big moments.

Plus, they’ve conceded a massive 33 tries in the final 20 minutes of games, which suggests they run out of gas as a result of their style of going hell for leather in attack right from the off and getting through a lot of work in defence too so they’ll have to manage the game as well as playing to their strengths.

I’m not sure it’s in their DNA to pace themselves but there’s no doubt they’re going to create opportunities and if they can take a decent proportion of them and leave it all out there, they’ll really put the tabletoppers under pressure.

Juarno Augustus
The power of Juan Augustus from the base of the scrum helped Saints beat Saracens 38-29 last month (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Saracens have become more expansive themselves this season after feeling they didn’t give it a proper go in last year’s final but there’s still a question mark over them in the big games after defeats to Toulon and La Rochelle in knockout ties recently too.

Most people will be expecting their experience and star names to give them the edge but Billy Vunipola is a big loss in these knockout occasions and they have lost three of their last four games after securing qualification for the play-offs early.

To pick both away teams to win when there have only been six away wins in 20 years is a big call but, as well as Sale have done to reconnect with their fans and as much as home comforts do matter, it isn’t as if either stadium is intimidating.

Leicester have the nous to come away with the spoils in the North West and if Northampton can hit the front and just manage the big moments well, while trusting the phenomenal attacking style that has got them to this stage, I can see them coming out on top at the StoneX.

You’d like to think Saints will have learned lessons from last year’s semi-final when they had more than enough chances to put Tigers away but didn’t and it’s almost 10 years to the day since they stunned Saracens in North London after the teams finished in the same positions in the table as they have done this season.

Northampton went on to lose to their bitter East Midlands rivals Leicester in the final at Twickenham a fortnight later. You never know, lightning might just strike twice a decade apart.

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J
JW 32 minutes ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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