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How much I expect England to beat Australia by - Andy Goode

England huddle at training this week (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

England have had to front up in the media this week after letting a lead slip against the All Blacks and now they need to do so on the pitch as they face a different sort of pressure with defeat to Australia almost unthinkable.

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They will have been favourites when hosting the Wallabies in all four Tests since being humbled at their home Rugby World Cup almost a decade ago, but this feels different given the form of the men in green and gold and their starting line-up.

Joe Schmidt may have started with a couple of wins over Wales and one against Georgia but he saw his side lose five of their six games in this year’s Rugby Championship and the team he has picked is clearly one with an eye on getting players more experience ahead of the British and Irish Lions tour this summer.

Facing Wales, Scotland and Ireland as well as England this month will help him in that regard but if this was the first Test against the Lions, there is no way he would be leaving out Will Skelton and Samu Kerevi.

Even if they aren’t quite 100 per cent fit, their experience combined with the size and physicality they bring would make a real difference this weekend. But Schmidt has spoken a lot about rewarding Australia-based talent and is clearly building towards the Lions series.

Team Form

Last 5 Games

1
Wins
2
1
Streak
2
19
Tries Scored
16
22
Points Difference
0
3/5
First Try
3/5
4/5
First Points
4/5
3/5
Race To 10 Points
3/5

With no Keveri in the centres, big money rugby league convert Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii makes his debut despite never having played a senior game of rugby union. Again, that is clearly with the hope of giving him the best chance to have a similar impact next year to the one a certain Israel Folau had against the Lions back in 2013, but it is going to be a baptism of fire.

Outside centre is the hardest position on the field to defend in union and, after Steve Borthwick opted to switch his centres around, he is directly up against one of England’s most in-form men in Ollie Lawrence.

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Him and Henry Slade swapping jerseys shouldn’t make much material difference as they should be interchangeable anyway, but number 13 is Lawrence’s favoured position and if it does help get his hands on the ball more in the outside channels, it can only be a positive.

Suaalii is the 17th debutant for the Wallabies this year, and that is after Eddie Jones opted to take a hugely youthful squad to the World Cup last year as well, so that shows you the period of transition they are currently in.

A big part of me likes what Schmidt is doing in terms of connecting with fans, rewarding home-based players and building their experience with a view to the future but there is no doubt it makes their task more difficult in the present.

It’s no slight on Jeremy Williams and Nick Frost to suggest that George Martin and Maro Itoje will be relieved not to be coming up against Skelton, who has been nothing short of immense for La Rochelle in recent years, not that they will admit it.

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Taniela Tupou is the only player in the Australia starting XV with over 50 caps to his name, compared to five in the England starting line-up, and he will provide power together with the likes of Rob Valetini, Angus Bell and Harry Wilson.

Wilson has been the standout figure for the Wallabies this year, topping the tackling stats and having the second most carries behind only Ardie Savea in The Rugby Championship, and his battle with Ben Earl will be one of the duels of the day.

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Tupou’s tussle with Ellis Genge in the front row will be another titanic one in both the tight and the loose. Australia are no mugs up front nowadays but England should still have the edge in the front five and back row.

I expect Australia to be well coached and organised under Schmidt, that almost goes without saying, but England should have too much physicality and hopefully we will get to see Marcus Smith finally unleash his exciting backline off the back of that.

The men in white know they need a full 80-minute performance after last week and will expect more impact from the bench after scoring just three points in the final half hour of three consecutive Tests against New Zealand.

The fans did their bit last Saturday and created an atmosphere as good as I can remember for some time at Allianz Stadium and England need to reward them because five wins in their last 11 Tests there isn’t anywhere near good enough.

Borthwick’s win percentage will drop to just 50 per cent if the unthinkable does happen and these aren’t numbers anyone in camp will be thinking about but they are indicators of the slightly more negative pressure England are under until results in the big games start to come more regularly.

There were more encouraging signs last week, as there have been almost every Test for a while now, but international sport is about results and a win is badly needed.

Quite simply, England are big favourites and I expect them to win by 15. If they are to live up to that billing and get their autumn up and running though, talk of developing has to stop and they need to embrace the pressure to win now.

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Comments

10 Comments
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BM 51 days ago

Why do the English coaches jump to a conclusion that Australia will be easier to beat without respect for Joe Schmidt (their new coach who has worked hard with them this season) or do you assume that new coaches know less about their mission and abilities to inspire their charges in less than a season as Razor has also done with ABs and knowing Joe's skills and record is even superior to your staff. I call that arrogant! I hope they surprise you enough to to shock you just as you thought 3 AB wins was impossible! AMAZING! 😮

A
Alex 51 days ago

All the kiwi and SA pundits are favouring England too in the predictions. Are they arrogant too? By your logic, everyone except you and a handful of (fairly anti-English by sentiment) people are arrogant. Interesting!


I love how when English people are confident, they're arrogant, but not the other way. Lol!!


I believe England are favourites but I also wouldn't be surprised if they lost as this Aus team has had a little time together and have talent for sure. They're back 5 probably is edged by England and that may be the point-of-difference. Will be tight and I look forward to it!

G
GM 51 days ago

England by 15? You must be joking - the Aussie pack will hand it to England, and if the Aussie backs light up for a change, it could be 15 the other way.

B
BM 51 days ago

Ditto to you too! 🤣Maybe one win but no-one will cheer for you!

B
Bull Shark 52 days ago

England are indeed massive favourites going in to this game.


Which is why I think they’ll lose.


The Wallabies can beat this England team. Make no mistake.


Wallabies by 1 point - is all that is needed.

L
LRB 51 days ago

You called it

T
Tom 51 days ago

A lot is going to come down to England's defence. It was porous against NZ and Australia could potentially catch them cold and get some tries on the board, if so they'll get their tails up and England will panic.


If England can shore up the defence and impose themselves physically, Australia will struggle. I'd make England slight favourites.

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AllyOz 19 hours ago
Does the next Wallabies coach have to be an Australian?

I will preface this comment by saying that I hope Joe Schmidt continues for as long as he can as I think he has done a tremendous job to date. He has, in some ways, made the job a little harder for himself by initially relying on domestic based players and never really going over the top with OS based players even when he relaxed his policy a little more. I really enjoy how the team are playing at the moment.


I think Les Kiss, because (1) he has a bit more international experience, (2) has previously coached with Schmidt and in the same setup as Schmidt, might provide the smoothest transition, though I am not sure that this necessarily needs to be the case.


I would say one thing though about OS versus local coaches. I have a preference for local coaches but not for the reason that people might suppose (certainly not for the reason OJohn will have opined - I haven't read all the way down but I think I can guess it).


Australia has produced coaches of international standing who have won World Cups and major trophies. Bob Dwyer, Rod Macqueen, Alan Jones, Michael Cheika and Eddie Jones. I would add John Connolly - though he never got the international success he was highly successful with Queensland against quality NZ opposition and I think you could argue, never really got the run at international level that others did (OJohn might agree with that bit). Some of those are controversial but they all achieved high level results. You can add to that a number of assistants who worked OS at a high level.


But what the lack of a clear Australian coach suggests to me is that we are no longer producing coaches of international quality through our systems. We have had some overseas based coaches in our system like Thorn and Wessels and Cron (though I would suggest Thorn was a unique case who played for Australia in one code and NZ in the other and saw himself as a both a NZer and a Queenslander having arrived here at around age 12). Cron was developed in the Australian system anyway, so I don't have a problem with where he was born.


But my point is that we used to have systems in Australia that produced world class coaches. The systems developed by Dick Marks, which adopted and adapted some of the best coaching training approaches at the time from around the world (Wales particularly) but focussed on training Australian coaches with the best available methods, in my mind (as someone who grew up and began coaching late in that era) was a key part of what produced the highly skilled players that we produced at the time and also that produced those world class coaches. I think it was slipping already by the time I did my Level II certificate in 2002 and I think Eddie Jones influence and the priorities of the executive, particularly John O'Neill, might have been the beginning of the end. But if we have good coaching development programmes at school and junior level that will feed through to representative level then we will have


I think this is the missing ingredient that both ourselves and, ironically, Wales (who gave us the bones of our coaching system that became world leading), is a poor coaching development system. Fix that and you start getting players developing basic skills better and earlier in their careers and this feeds through all the way through the system and it also means that, when coaching positions at all levels come up, there are people of quality to fill them, who feed through the system all the way to the top. We could be exporting more coaches to Japan and England and France and the UK and the USA, as we have done a bit in the past.


A lack of a third tier between SR and Club rugby might block this a little - but I am not sure that this alone is the reason - it does give people some opportunity though to be noticed and play a key role in developing that next generation of players coming through. And we have never been able to make the cost sustainable.


I don't think it matters that we have an OS coach as our head coach at the moment but I think it does tell us something about overall rugby ecosystem that, when a coaching appointment comes up, we don't have 3 or 4 high quality options ready to take over. The failure of our coaching development pathway is a key missing ingredient for me and one of the reasons our systems are failing.

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