How much I expect England to beat Australia by - Andy Goode

England have had to front up in the media this week after letting a lead slip against the All Blacks and now they need to do so on the pitch as they face a different sort of pressure with defeat to Australia almost unthinkable.

They will have been favourites when hosting the Wallabies in all four Tests since being humbled at their home Rugby World Cup almost a decade ago, but this feels different given the form of the men in green and gold and their starting line-up.

Joe Schmidt may have started with a couple of wins over Wales and one against Georgia but he saw his side lose five of their six games in this year’s Rugby Championship and the team he has picked is clearly one with an eye on getting players more experience ahead of the British and Irish Lions tour this summer.

Facing Wales, Scotland and Ireland as well as England this month will help him in that regard but if this was the first Test against the Lions, there is no way he would be leaving out Will Skelton and Samu Kerevi.

Even if they aren’t quite 100 per cent fit, their experience combined with the size and physicality they bring would make a real difference this weekend. But Schmidt has spoken a lot about rewarding Australia-based talent and is clearly building towards the Lions series.

Team Form

Last 5 Games

14 - 68

47 - 24

16 - 15

26 - 25

27 - 22

22 - 19

27 - 13

20 - 52

37 - 42

33 - 13

4

Wins

2

4

Streak

2

25

Tries Scored

16

74

Points Difference

0

3/5

First Try

3/5

3/5

First Points

4/5

3/5

Race To 10 Points

3/5

With no Keveri in the centres, big money rugby league convert Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii makes his debut despite never having played a senior game of rugby union. Again, that is clearly with the hope of giving him the best chance to have a similar impact next year to the one a certain Israel Folau had against the Lions back in 2013, but it is going to be a baptism of fire.

Outside centre is the hardest position on the field to defend in union and, after Steve Borthwick opted to switch his centres around, he is directly up against one of England’s most in-form men in Ollie Lawrence.

Him and Henry Slade swapping jerseys shouldn’t make much material difference as they should be interchangeable anyway, but number 13 is Lawrence’s favoured position and if it does help get his hands on the ball more in the outside channels, it can only be a positive.

Suaalii is the 17th debutant for the Wallabies this year, and that is after Eddie Jones opted to take a hugely youthful squad to the World Cup last year as well, so that shows you the period of transition they are currently in.

A big part of me likes what Schmidt is doing in terms of connecting with fans, rewarding home-based players and building their experience with a view to the future but there is no doubt it makes their task more difficult in the present.

It’s no slight on Jeremy Williams and Nick Frost to suggest that George Martin and Maro Itoje will be relieved not to be coming up against Skelton, who has been nothing short of immense for La Rochelle in recent years, not that they will admit it.

Taniela Tupou is the only player in the Australia starting XV with over 50 caps to his name, compared to five in the England starting line-up, and he will provide power together with the likes of Rob Valetini, Angus Bell and Harry Wilson.

Wilson has been the standout figure for the Wallabies this year, topping the tackling stats and having the second most carries behind only Ardie Savea in The Rugby Championship, and his battle with Ben Earl will be one of the duels of the day.

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Tupou’s tussle with Ellis Genge in the front row will be another titanic one in both the tight and the loose. Australia are no mugs up front nowadays but England should still have the edge in the front five and back row.

I expect Australia to be well coached and organised under Schmidt, that almost goes without saying, but England should have too much physicality and hopefully we will get to see Marcus Smith finally unleash his exciting backline off the back of that.

The men in white know they need a full 80-minute performance after last week and will expect more impact from the bench after scoring just three points in the final half hour of three consecutive Tests against New Zealand.

The fans did their bit last Saturday and created an atmosphere as good as I can remember for some time at Allianz Stadium and England need to reward them because five wins in their last 11 Tests there isn’t anywhere near good enough.

Borthwick’s win percentage will drop to just 50 per cent if the unthinkable does happen and these aren’t numbers anyone in camp will be thinking about but they are indicators of the slightly more negative pressure England are under until results in the big games start to come more regularly.

There were more encouraging signs last week, as there have been almost every Test for a while now, but international sport is about results and a win is badly needed.

Quite simply, England are big favourites and I expect them to win by 15. If they are to live up to that billing and get their autumn up and running though, talk of developing has to stop and they need to embrace the pressure to win now.