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How much I expect England to beat Australia by - Andy Goode

England huddle at training this week (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

England have had to front up in the media this week after letting a lead slip against the All Blacks and now they need to do so on the pitch as they face a different sort of pressure with defeat to Australia almost unthinkable.

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They will have been favourites when hosting the Wallabies in all four Tests since being humbled at their home Rugby World Cup almost a decade ago, but this feels different given the form of the men in green and gold and their starting line-up.

Joe Schmidt may have started with a couple of wins over Wales and one against Georgia but he saw his side lose five of their six games in this year’s Rugby Championship and the team he has picked is clearly one with an eye on getting players more experience ahead of the British and Irish Lions tour this summer.

Facing Wales, Scotland and Ireland as well as England this month will help him in that regard but if this was the first Test against the Lions, there is no way he would be leaving out Will Skelton and Samu Kerevi.

Even if they aren’t quite 100 per cent fit, their experience combined with the size and physicality they bring would make a real difference this weekend. But Schmidt has spoken a lot about rewarding Australia-based talent and is clearly building towards the Lions series.

Team Form

Last 5 Games

0
Wins
2
5
Streak
2
12
Tries Scored
21
-24
Points Difference
-26
2/5
First Try
3/5
3/5
First Points
2/5
2/5
Race To 10 Points
3/5

With no Keveri in the centres, big money rugby league convert Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii makes his debut despite never having played a senior game of rugby union. Again, that is clearly with the hope of giving him the best chance to have a similar impact next year to the one a certain Israel Folau had against the Lions back in 2013, but it is going to be a baptism of fire.

Outside centre is the hardest position on the field to defend in union and, after Steve Borthwick opted to switch his centres around, he is directly up against one of England’s most in-form men in Ollie Lawrence.

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Him and Henry Slade swapping jerseys shouldn’t make much material difference as they should be interchangeable anyway, but number 13 is Lawrence’s favoured position and if it does help get his hands on the ball more in the outside channels, it can only be a positive.

Suaalii is the 17th debutant for the Wallabies this year, and that is after Eddie Jones opted to take a hugely youthful squad to the World Cup last year as well, so that shows you the period of transition they are currently in.

A big part of me likes what Schmidt is doing in terms of connecting with fans, rewarding home-based players and building their experience with a view to the future but there is no doubt it makes their task more difficult in the present.

It’s no slight on Jeremy Williams and Nick Frost to suggest that George Martin and Maro Itoje will be relieved not to be coming up against Skelton, who has been nothing short of immense for La Rochelle in recent years, not that they will admit it.

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Taniela Tupou is the only player in the Australia starting XV with over 50 caps to his name, compared to five in the England starting line-up, and he will provide power together with the likes of Rob Valetini, Angus Bell and Harry Wilson.

Wilson has been the standout figure for the Wallabies this year, topping the tackling stats and having the second most carries behind only Ardie Savea in The Rugby Championship, and his battle with Ben Earl will be one of the duels of the day.

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Tupou’s tussle with Ellis Genge in the front row will be another titanic one in both the tight and the loose. Australia are no mugs up front nowadays but England should still have the edge in the front five and back row.

I expect Australia to be well coached and organised under Schmidt, that almost goes without saying, but England should have too much physicality and hopefully we will get to see Marcus Smith finally unleash his exciting backline off the back of that.

The men in white know they need a full 80-minute performance after last week and will expect more impact from the bench after scoring just three points in the final half hour of three consecutive Tests against New Zealand.

The fans did their bit last Saturday and created an atmosphere as good as I can remember for some time at Allianz Stadium and England need to reward them because five wins in their last 11 Tests there isn’t anywhere near good enough.

Borthwick’s win percentage will drop to just 50 per cent if the unthinkable does happen and these aren’t numbers anyone in camp will be thinking about but they are indicators of the slightly more negative pressure England are under until results in the big games start to come more regularly.

There were more encouraging signs last week, as there have been almost every Test for a while now, but international sport is about results and a win is badly needed.

Quite simply, England are big favourites and I expect them to win by 15. If they are to live up to that billing and get their autumn up and running though, talk of developing has to stop and they need to embrace the pressure to win now.

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Comments

10 Comments
B
BM 12 days ago

Why do the English coaches jump to a conclusion that Australia will be easier to beat without respect for Joe Schmidt (their new coach who has worked hard with them this season) or do you assume that new coaches know less about their mission and abilities to inspire their charges in less than a season as Razor has also done with ABs and knowing Joe's skills and record is even superior to your staff. I call that arrogant! I hope they surprise you enough to to shock you just as you thought 3 AB wins was impossible! AMAZING! 😮

A
Alex 11 days ago

All the kiwi and SA pundits are favouring England too in the predictions. Are they arrogant too? By your logic, everyone except you and a handful of (fairly anti-English by sentiment) people are arrogant. Interesting!


I love how when English people are confident, they're arrogant, but not the other way. Lol!!


I believe England are favourites but I also wouldn't be surprised if they lost as this Aus team has had a little time together and have talent for sure. They're back 5 probably is edged by England and that may be the point-of-difference. Will be tight and I look forward to it!

G
GM 12 days ago

England by 15? You must be joking - the Aussie pack will hand it to England, and if the Aussie backs light up for a change, it could be 15 the other way.

B
BM 12 days ago

Ditto to you too! 🤣Maybe one win but no-one will cheer for you!

B
Bull Shark 12 days ago

England are indeed massive favourites going in to this game.


Which is why I think they’ll lose.


The Wallabies can beat this England team. Make no mistake.


Wallabies by 1 point - is all that is needed.

L
LRB 11 days ago

You called it

T
Tom 12 days ago

A lot is going to come down to England's defence. It was porous against NZ and Australia could potentially catch them cold and get some tries on the board, if so they'll get their tails up and England will panic.


If England can shore up the defence and impose themselves physically, Australia will struggle. I'd make England slight favourites.

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JW 2 hours ago
'Passionate reunion of France and New Zealand shows Fabien Galthie is wrong to rest his stars'

Ok, managed to read the full article..

... New Zealand’s has only 14 and the professional season is all over within four months. In France, club governance is the responsibility of an independent organisation [the Ligue Nationale de Rugby or LNR] which is entirely separate from the host union [the Fédération Française de Rugby or FFR]. Down south New Zealand Rugby runs the provincial and the national game.

That is the National Provincial Championship, a competition of 14 representative union based teams run through the SH international window and only semi professional (paid only during it's running). It is run by NZR and goes for two and a half months.


Super Rugby is a competition involving 12 fully professional teams, of which 5 are of New Zealand eligibility, and another joint administered team of Pacific Island eligibility, with NZR involvement. It was a 18 week competition this year, so involved (randomly chosen I believe) extra return fixtures (2 or 3 home and away derbys), and is run by Super Rugby Pacific's own independent Board (or organisation). The teams may or may not be independently run and owned (note, this does not necessarily mean what you think of as 'privately owned').


LNR was setup by FFR and the French Government to administer the professional game in France. In New Zealand, the Players Association and Super Rugby franchises agreed last month to not setup their own governance structure for professional rugby and re-aligned themselves with New Zealand Rugby. They had been proposing to do something like the English model, I'm not sure how closely that would have been aligned to the French system but it did not sound like it would have French union executive representation on it like the LNR does.

In the shaky isles the professional pyramid tapers to a point with the almighty All Blacks. In France the feeling for country is no more important than the sense of fierce local identity spawned at myriad clubs concentrated in the southwest. Progress is achieved by a nonchalant shrug and the wide sweep of nuanced negotiation, rather than driven from the top by a single intense focus.

Yes, it is pretty much a 'representative' selection system at every level, but these union's are having to fight for their existence against the regime that is NZR, and are currently going through their own battle, just as France has recently as I understand it. A single focus, ala the French game, might not be the best outcome for rugby as a whole.


For pure theatre, it is a wonderful article so far. I prefer 'Ntamack New Zealand 2022' though.

The young Crusader still struggles to solve the puzzle posed by the shorter, more compact tight-heads at this level but he had no problem at all with Colombe.

It was interesting to listen to Manny during an interview on Maul or Nothing, he citied that after a bit of banter with the All Black's he no longer wanted one of their jersey's after the game. One of those talks was an eye to eye chat with Tamaiti Williams, there appear to be nothing between the lock and prop, just a lot of give and take. I thought TW angled in and caused Taylor to pop a few times, and that NZ were lucky to be rewarded.

f you have a forward of 6ft 8ins and 145kg, and he is not at all disturbed by a dysfunctional set-piece, you are in business.

He talked about the clarity of the leadership that helped alleviate any need for anxiety at the predicaments unfolding before him. The same cannot be said for New Zealand when they had 5 minutes left to retrieve a match winning penalty, I don't believe. Did the team in black have much of a plan at any point in the game? I don't really call an autonomous 10 vehicle they had as innovative. I think Razor needs to go back to the dealer and get a new game driver on that one.

Vaa’i is no match for his power on the ground. Even in reverse, Meafou is like a tractor motoring backwards in low gear, trampling all in its path.

Vaa'i actually stops him in his tracks. He gets what could have been a dubious 'tackle' on him?

A high-level offence will often try to identify and exploit big forwards who can be slower to reload, and therefore vulnerable to two quick plays run at them consecutively.

Yes he was just standing on his haunches wasn't he? He mentioned that in the interview, saying that not only did you just get up and back into the line to find the opposition was already set and running at you they also hit harder than anything he'd experienced in the Top 14. He was referring to New Zealands ultra-physical, burst-based Super style of course, which he was more than a bit surprised about. I don't blame him for being caught out.


He still sent the obstruction back to the repair yard though!

What wouldn’t the New Zealand rugby public give to see the likes of Mauvaka and Meafou up front..

Common now Nick, don't go there! Meafou showed his Toulouse shirt and promptly got his citizenship, New Zealand can't have him, surely?!?


As I have said before with these subjects, really enjoy your enthusiasm for their contribution on the field and I'd love to see more of their shapes running out for Vern Cotter and the like styled teams.

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