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England given meagre five per cent chance of Six Nations title glory

New England skipper Jamie George (Photo by David Ramos/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)

Ireland have been given a 30 per cent chance of chalking up back-to-back Grand Slam titles, with England given a meagre five per cent of winning the Guinness Six Nations.

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This weekend’s start to the 2024 championship will see defending champions Ireland go to France on Friday night, with England visiting Italy and Scotland going to Wales on Saturday.

Ahead of the eagerly anticipated kick-off, Grosvenor Sport have crunched the numbers and identified the favourites for success by simulating the result of every Six Nations fixture 1,000 times in an attempt to predict the most accurate result.

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A statement read: “Ireland have a whopping 61.5 per cent chance of winning the Six Nations and a 49.6 per cent chance of winning another Grand Slam, according to data analysts.

“A team of number crunchers at Grosvenor Sport have created a model that can simulate the result of every Six Nations game 1,000 times to give the most accurate result possible.

six nations stats two

“Using the current World Rugby rankings, as well as home advantage and bonus point likelihood, Ireland won the tournament 615 times out of 1,000 – meaning they have a 61.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

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“Using these raw figures to assimilate a percentage, we can see France are second favourites at 31.5 per cent and England trail well behind with just a 5.2 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

“Based on these figures, we can also confidently say Scotland will finish fourth, above Wales and Italy, who will collect yet another wooden spoon. There is an 84 per cent chance they will finish bottom of the Six Nations table.

“If we look at the chances of a Grand Slam, France and Ireland are once again favourites, making the opening game of the 2024 tournament even more crucial.

“Whilst it is still more likely there will not be a Grand Slam winner (49.8 per cent chance) Ireland are the most likely side to win every single game and complete back-to-back Grand Slams at 30.5 per cent.

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“The opening game of the tournament in Marseille is likely to decide not only the course of the championship, but also the likelihood of a Grand Slam for either team. France have a 15.6 per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, a feat they managed in 2022 after beating Ireland 30-24.

“England have got just a three per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, slightly better than Scotland who have a  one per cent chance of winning it.”

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J
JW 3 hours ago
'Passionate reunion of France and New Zealand shows Fabien Galthie is wrong to rest his stars'

Ok, managed to read the full article..

... New Zealand’s has only 14 and the professional season is all over within four months. In France, club governance is the responsibility of an independent organisation [the Ligue Nationale de Rugby or LNR] which is entirely separate from the host union [the Fédération Française de Rugby or FFR]. Down south New Zealand Rugby runs the provincial and the national game.

That is the National Provincial Championship, a competition of 14 representative union based teams run through the SH international window and only semi professional (paid only during it's running). It is run by NZR and goes for two and a half months.


Super Rugby is a competition involving 12 fully professional teams, of which 5 are of New Zealand eligibility, and another joint administered team of Pacific Island eligibility, with NZR involvement. It was a 18 week competition this year, so involved (randomly chosen I believe) extra return fixtures (2 or 3 home and away derbys), and is run by Super Rugby Pacific's own independent Board (or organisation). The teams may or may not be independently run and owned (note, this does not necessarily mean what you think of as 'privately owned').


LNR was setup by FFR and the French Government to administer the professional game in France. In New Zealand, the Players Association and Super Rugby franchises agreed last month to not setup their own governance structure for professional rugby and re-aligned themselves with New Zealand Rugby. They had been proposing to do something like the English model, I'm not sure how closely that would have been aligned to the French system but it did not sound like it would have French union executive representation on it like the LNR does.

In the shaky isles the professional pyramid tapers to a point with the almighty All Blacks. In France the feeling for country is no more important than the sense of fierce local identity spawned at myriad clubs concentrated in the southwest. Progress is achieved by a nonchalant shrug and the wide sweep of nuanced negotiation, rather than driven from the top by a single intense focus.

Yes, it is pretty much a 'representative' selection system at every level, but these union's are having to fight for their existence against the regime that is NZR, and are currently going through their own battle, just as France has recently as I understand it. A single focus, ala the French game, might not be the best outcome for rugby as a whole.


For pure theatre, it is a wonderful article so far. I prefer 'Ntamack New Zealand 2022' though.

The young Crusader still struggles to solve the puzzle posed by the shorter, more compact tight-heads at this level but he had no problem at all with Colombe.

It was interesting to listen to Manny during an interview on Maul or Nothing, he citied that after a bit of banter with the All Black's he no longer wanted one of their jersey's after the game. One of those talks was an eye to eye chat with Tamaiti Williams, there appear to be nothing between the lock and prop, just a lot of give and take. I thought TW angled in and caused Taylor to pop a few times, and that NZ were lucky to be rewarded.

f you have a forward of 6ft 8ins and 145kg, and he is not at all disturbed by a dysfunctional set-piece, you are in business.

He talked about the clarity of the leadership that helped alleviate any need for anxiety at the predicaments unfolding before him. The same cannot be said for New Zealand when they had 5 minutes left to retrieve a match winning penalty, I don't believe. Did the team in black have much of a plan at any point in the game? I don't really call an autonomous 10 vehicle they had as innovative. I think Razor needs to go back to the dealer and get a new game driver on that one.

Vaa’i is no match for his power on the ground. Even in reverse, Meafou is like a tractor motoring backwards in low gear, trampling all in its path.

Vaa'i actually stops him in his tracks. He gets what could have been a dubious 'tackle' on him?

A high-level offence will often try to identify and exploit big forwards who can be slower to reload, and therefore vulnerable to two quick plays run at them consecutively.

Yes he was just standing on his haunches wasn't he? He mentioned that in the interview, saying that not only did you just get up and back into the line to find the opposition was already set and running at you they also hit harder than anything he'd experienced in the Top 14. He was referring to New Zealands ultra-physical, burst-based Super style of course, which he was more than a bit surprised about. I don't blame him for being caught out.


He still sent the obstruction back to the repair yard though!

What wouldn’t the New Zealand rugby public give to see the likes of Mauvaka and Meafou up front..

Common now Nick, don't go there! Meafou showed his Toulouse shirt and promptly got his citizenship, New Zealand can't have him, surely?!?


As I have said before with these subjects, really enjoy your enthusiasm for their contribution on the field and I'd love to see more of their shapes running out for Vern Cotter and the like styled teams.

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