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England given meagre five per cent chance of Six Nations title glory

New England skipper Jamie George (Photo by David Ramos/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)

Ireland have been given a 30 per cent chance of chalking up back-to-back Grand Slam titles, with England given a meagre five per cent of winning the Guinness Six Nations.

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This weekend’s start to the 2024 championship will see defending champions Ireland go to France on Friday night, with England visiting Italy and Scotland going to Wales on Saturday.

Ahead of the eagerly anticipated kick-off, Grosvenor Sport have crunched the numbers and identified the favourites for success by simulating the result of every Six Nations fixture 1,000 times in an attempt to predict the most accurate result.

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A statement read: “Ireland have a whopping 61.5 per cent chance of winning the Six Nations and a 49.6 per cent chance of winning another Grand Slam, according to data analysts.

“A team of number crunchers at Grosvenor Sport have created a model that can simulate the result of every Six Nations game 1,000 times to give the most accurate result possible.

six nations stats two

“Using the current World Rugby rankings, as well as home advantage and bonus point likelihood, Ireland won the tournament 615 times out of 1,000 – meaning they have a 61.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

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“Using these raw figures to assimilate a percentage, we can see France are second favourites at 31.5 per cent and England trail well behind with just a 5.2 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

“Based on these figures, we can also confidently say Scotland will finish fourth, above Wales and Italy, who will collect yet another wooden spoon. There is an 84 per cent chance they will finish bottom of the Six Nations table.

“If we look at the chances of a Grand Slam, France and Ireland are once again favourites, making the opening game of the 2024 tournament even more crucial.

“Whilst it is still more likely there will not be a Grand Slam winner (49.8 per cent chance) Ireland are the most likely side to win every single game and complete back-to-back Grand Slams at 30.5 per cent.

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“The opening game of the tournament in Marseille is likely to decide not only the course of the championship, but also the likelihood of a Grand Slam for either team. France have a 15.6 per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, a feat they managed in 2022 after beating Ireland 30-24.

“England have got just a three per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, slightly better than Scotland who have a  one per cent chance of winning it.”

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J
JW 1 hour ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

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