England Have the All Blacks' Record in Their Sights, but What About the Number One Slot?

England have just completed an unbeaten year and are a Six Nations Grand Slam away from breaking the All Blacks‘ winning streak – but James Harrington says they are two years away from being the best in the world

The English are coming! That’s the 21st-century take on American Independence patriot Paul Revere’s legendary call currently being hollered across the rugby media. All Blacks beware!

The English are coming! In registering their fourth win over Australia in six months, England registered an unbeaten calendar year for the first time since 1992, when they played six matches. And they equalled their best-ever winning streak – 14 – to match the pre-World Cup run of their now-fabled 2003 predecessors.

The English are coming! Even before Saturday’s game, England had already beaten eight of the top 10 ranked teams in 2016 – including three of the four 2015 Rugby World Cup semi-finalists.

The English are coming! Just five more matches – the 2017 Six Nations – stand between the red rose nation and a new world-record run for a Tier One nation. The All Blacks’ hard-earned 18-Test streak will, apparently, last less than a year.

The English are coming! Fate and the Six Nations fixture list have handed Eddie Jones a tournament campaign to die for. They start at Twickenham against France – who have not won in London since 2005 – on February 4; then head to Cardiff to face the passionate but out-of-form Welsh before two home matches – against Italy and then Scotland.

The English are coming! The only side that stands in their way, then, is Ireland. England’s one big trip of the 2017 Six Nations sees them head to Dublin for the final match of the tournament. All things being equal, the pundits say, it will be a Grand Slam decider, as well as the all-important World Record Match for England.

And yet… There’s no doubt 2016 era England are good – as Australia coach Michael Cheika said, no side wins 14 internationals in a row by luck – and they are deservedly second in the world rankings. But they remain firmly behind a team that is just as deservedly first.

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Jones himself has been quick to play down the rise and rise of the English during his tenure. He said: “We’re only the number two team in the world and we want to be number one. We’ve got a long way to go before we achieve that. And we’re hell-bent on achieving that.”

The numbers tell their own story: Yes, England have a perfect record in 2016. And, yes, they have played – and beaten – most of their Top 10 rivals this year, including three RWC semi-finalists. And, yes, they are five matches away from breaking the All Blacks’ winning streak.

But, New Zealand have also played – and beaten – the other three RWC semi-finalists. At least twice. They have bettered Wales three times; and France, Italy and Ireland once. Their sole defeat in a 14-match 2016 was against Joe Schmidt’s men in green in Chicago.

During their four-match November northern hemisphere tour, the All Blacks scored 152 points and conceded 78. England, meanwhile, notched 159 points with 71 against.

Close, then? Maybe not as close as it seems. In their 13 Tests in 2016, England scored 46 tries to finish second in the try-scoring list of the year. It doesn’t take a genius to work out which country tops that list – but the margin between the first and second is telling.

The All Blacks scored 80 tries.

Looking ahead, victory is far from assured for England in the Six Nations matches leading up to that eagerly awaited Ireland encounter. Two matches, in particular, are closer to call than many would suggest. Guy Novès is rebuilding the French in his own image – after just a few months, the closer union between the Top 14 and the national side is having a clear and noticeable effect; and Scotland have discovered the sacred art of creativity to go with their burgeoning strength in depth.

Jones has already highlighted areas where his side needs to improve, and is talking tough on the set piece.

And he has warned his players that places are not guaranteed: “If you don’t keep performing you won’t be in the team. If players aren’t hungry and you see it in their performance they won’t be here. We have enough depth to change the squad if we need to.”

That unbeaten year is a start, but for England to be overtake New Zealand in the world rankings, they first need to win their next five games to complete a second successive Grand Slam. The record is secondary.

After the Lions’ tour of New Zealand – when much empty capital is likely to be won and lost – they will need to regroup for the 2017 November internationals and the 2018 Six Nations.

So, yes, the English are coming. But while the All Blacks should take note, they have no need to worry yet.  England have a long way to go to catch New Zealand. Rugby scheduling circumstance will keep them apart – like heavyweight boxing champions circling ahead of a unification fight – until November 2018.

By then – fate, fitness and form willing – the English may be ready.