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The tweaks England must make to break Eden Park spell – Andy Goode
By Andy Goode
Steve Borthwick is the biggest student of the game and proponent of statistics and records you’ll find and he’ll have his troops motivated by the chance to make history at Eden Park, if they can fix just a couple of key areas from last week.
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The All Blacks haven’t lost a Test at their Auckland fortress for an incredible 30 years and are looking to make it a scarcely believable 50 consecutive matches unbeaten there on Saturday but this England team is capable of upsetting the odds and ending that streak.
They came within a whisker of becoming just the third England side to win on New Zealand soil last week, and the first since 2003, and the late change with Freddie Steward coming in for George Furbank at full-back could even help them to go one better.
The Saints man has made the number 15 jersey his own since the third game of this year’s Six Nations against Scotland but Steward had barely put a foot wrong prior to that and will be hungry to show that it should never have been taken off him.
Furbank does bring an extra dimension to the attack with his distribution, creativity, lines of running and added acceleration but if this is another tight encounter, then the 6ft 5in Leicester full-back might be just the man to provide solidity and perhaps a moment of magic.
England looked good in parts in Dunedin but they only made three line breaks and scored a couple of tries from their six visits to the opposition 22 so they’ll need to be more ruthless if they are to emerge victorious.
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The other area they really need to see improvement in is the scrum, where both sides conceded a couple of penalties last week but New Zealand seemed to get the upper hand at crucial points and Nic Berry might have a different interpretation to Nika Amashukeli.
There were definitely a few examples where it looked like Ethan de Groot was getting an advantage from going around the outside and that happens sometimes but if some of those calls for going in on the angle are made, it can create huge shifts in momentum.
The experience of Joe Marler will be missed, especially at scrum time, as the two looseheads in the match day 23 have just seven caps between them but Fin Baxter came on after 17 minutes last week and has been starting ahead of Marler at club level for most of this season.
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It’s a huge day for the 22-year-old as he makes his first Test start and he’s sure to have a long international career ahead of him but he needs to at least achieve parity at the set piece, as well as adding his energy in the loose.
On the other side of the scrum, it’s interesting that Dan Cole isn’t starting given his set-piece prowess and years of experience but the 37-year-old will be waiting in the wings and could have a big role to play late on.
It’s no surprise that New Zealand only make the one enforced change and they will lose a fair bit of experience with the absence of TJ Perenara but Finlay Christie has been involved in almost every Test for the past couple of years and knocking on the door for more starts.
That means Beauden Barrett has to make do with a spot among the replacements again but Stephen Perofeta went well at Forsyth Barr Stadium generally, as well as creating a try in the first half, and Scott Robertson will want to give this team a run of games.
This All Black side is right at the start of its evolution and a new four-year cycle with a new head coach and they’ll have been mightily relieved to begin with a one-point win last week but England can play on that instability and the weight of the Eden Park record.
Having such a staggeringly good rate of success at that ground can inspire those in black jerseys, lifting them to another level, but it might just make the shirts feel heavier with the weight of history on them if things go a certain way.
England can’t let New Zealand get off to a fast start but if they can get ahead themselves or be within a converted try around the hour mark, they may find the opposition getting nervous or the edginess of the crowd transmitting to them.
Sport at the highest level is about the big moments and England came so close but didn’t quite get the better of them last week. This time around, if they can keep it equally tight, they might just be able to strike if the All Blacks get tense.
A France side captained by Philippe Saint-Andre and featuring the likes of Emile Ntamack, Philippe Sella, Thierry Lacroix, Christian Califano and Abdelatif Benazzi were the last visitors to win at Eden Park all the way back in 1994 but records are there to be broken.
It’s the end of a long season but these England players have the chance to write their names in the history books, Borthwick will be drumming that into them and who knows, it might just be the difference in turning a one-point defeat into an equally narrow victory.
TLDR. Ireland would win this with 13 men.
Pressure won’t be a factor. England getting a bit tidier with their contestable kicks will be though.
Gutted about Furbanks injury, I was really looking forward to seeing him again, he was fantastic last week.
Interesting to see if they sub Marcus smith at 10, I reckon play that dude until he falls over.
Finlay Christie better not piss about with that ruck ball or the rush D with have the All Blacks tripping backwards over their arse all day.
For my money, Cortez is a bit quicker and should be starting, though Finlay was very, very good when he came back from injury.