England vs Wales: Keys to Victory

England vs Wales.

A Grand Slam decider at Twickenham this Saturday?

The Irish will certainly have something to say about that, but it has undoubtedly taken on an extra edge – as if it needed one – following Wales’ performance against Scotland in the opening round of the tournament.

Warren Gatland’s side surpassed all expectations in their dismantling of Scotland and whilst the poor nature of Scotland’s performance certainly contributed heavily to that, Wales played with an efficiency that very few could have foreseen, especially in the first game of the championship.

England duly delivered out in Rome and whilst far from the finished article, they can also be pleased with how fluent they looked for an opening fixture and now the two sides prepare to meet at Twickenham, where they will both face more formidable opposition than they encountered a week previous.

We take a look at the three key areas where the game will be won and lost in TW2 this weekend.

Set-piece stalemate?

Coming into the tournament, you wouldn’t have found too many people who would have disagreed with the assertion that, in this contest, England would have a slight edge at the lineout and Wales would have a slight edge at the scrum.

Both teams delivered in their respective areas of strength last weekend, but what was also notable was how effective the English scrum looked and how smoothly the Welsh lineout ran.

Forget the whingeing about Dylan Hartley’s continued selection, as of the four tries that were scored by England whilst he was on the field in Rome, three stemmed directly from set-pieces. The England captain nailed his jumpers on all 11 of his lineout throws and the stability of the set-piece was a great launching pad for England’s back line, who had plenty of joy with strike moves on Sunday.

As for Wales, the all-Scarlets front-row of Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Samson Lee shone, as did venerable lock Alun Wyn Jones, admittedly against a Scotland tight five shorn of multiple starters and back-ups. Wales delivered a success rate of 95% on their 21 set-pieces, whilst England produced the same success rate on their 20 set-pieces.

It seems evenly balanced going into this contest and may well come down to whether Evans and Lee can rattle their opposite numbers at scrum time or Maro Itoje and Courtney Lawes can pressure the Welsh lineout in a way that Scotland were unable to.

Both scenarios are certainly possible.

Midfield counter-punching

Away from the set-piece, another area where both teams prospered last week was in the play of their midfields.

George Ford and Owen Farrell seemed to enjoy the presence of Ben Te’o in their midst, buzzing around and playing off of him as if he were an extra back-row, and you frequently saw Te’o move inside to the 12 berth and Farrell float wider, ready to link play with the wings if there was an opportunity to go wide quickly and exploit an overlap.

Jonathan Joseph has replaced Te’o in the England XV for the match at Twickenham, so expect to see something a little more conventional from England this week, with Farrell staying closer to Ford and operating in a regular 10-12 axis.

For Wales, Scott Williams excelled in his new role at outside centre and showed none of the hesitation that players in that position can show with their defensive reads and decision-making. Rhys Patchell looked as comfortable at 10 as he does for the Scarlets and Hadleigh Parkes mixed his game up well in an area of the pitch that saw him confined tighter than he usually is at regional level.

Where the Welsh midfield might have looked to hurt England was with the tempo they could have played at and how quickly they could get wide, with England’s defence notably narrower with Te’o at 13 than it is with Joseph. It is not a criticism of Te’o’s defence, who blitzed out of the line on three occasions against Italy, making successful one-on-one tackles all three times, but he doesn’t have the lateral quickness that Joseph does, and it is one way teams could look to expose him.

With Joseph now back in the XV, there are going to be fewer opportunities for Wales to get wide and around the English defence. One way they could look to deal with this is to involve Leigh Halfpenny as much as possible in the midfield, running lines behind Parkes and Williams to try and cause as much hesitation as possible in the usually defensively solid pairing of Farrell and Joseph.

As for England, the chemistry between Ford and Farrell is a weapon in itself. Some of the interplay between the two of them in Rome was extraordinarily good and their handling, taking intricate and sharp passes at pace, was too much for Italy to deal with. If Williams turns in another excellent defensive performance on Saturday, looking to exploit the space inside of him, targeting Parkes and Patchell, could be the way to go, with the skill levels of the English playmakers enough to play accurate rugby at speed in the areas of the pitch where there is likely to be heavier traffic.

Dealing with the breakdown

The battle of the breakdown. It seems to be the longest running saga in matches between these two nations.

For a long time, Wales have had an advantage in this area and in the games where England have not had an answer for that, they have tended to lose. When England are able to take the breakdown out of the equation or at least minimise its influence on the game, whether through clinical rucking or an ability to break the gain-line at will, they have tended to win.

No Billy Vunipola or Nathan Hughes obviously influences England’s ability to break the gain-line, but at the same time, no Sam Warburton available and Justin Tipuric on the bench will give England confidence their pack can deliver a rucking effort which will be enough to keep the Welsh fetchers quiet.

Of course, it could be the vice versa of this which determines the game.

England may not have a traditional fetcher in their pack, but they do have players such as Itoje, Dan Cole and Sam Simmonds, all of whom can cause disruption and steal ball if Wales don’t do their due diligence at the contact area or break the gain-line enough to keep the English forwards backpedalling.

Whichever way it goes, all eyes will undoubtedly be on referee Jérôme Garcès and his interpretation of what is going on at the breakdown.