1
Everyone knows the Springboks' ranking was juiced
South Africa has lost the world number one ranking for the first time since being crowned Rugby World Cup winners in 2023 after falling to Argentina by 29-28 in Santiago del Estero.
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Their 11-month reign at the top featured a drawn 1-1 series at home to Ireland before wins over Portugal and doubles over Australia and New Zealand.
As the saying goes, heavy is the head that wears the crown. But this specific crown has plenty of air pumped underneath to prop it up as long as possible which South Africa has benefitted from.
Under the World Rugby ranking system the Rugby World Cup knockout fixtures receive special treatment, with wins earning double points to ‘juice’ the eventual champion.
Before the 2019 run, South Africa were ranked fifth in the world. But a month later after beating Namibia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Wales and England on the way to the title they powered their way into the world number one ranking.
Had ‘double points’ not been on offer through the knockouts, they would likely have not reached number one based on beating those opponents and certainly would not have built such a cushion between the others.
Their 94.20 points were specially frozen during 2020 when they opted to turn down playing while others played. After resuming play in 2021, they held onto the top spot for 11 months before too many losses piled up. A bad run of three straight losses to Australia and New Zealand caused too much damage.
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They regained the ranking heading into 2022 but during that year’s Rugby Championship they were overtaken by Ireland for good up until the next World Cup.
A similar story is playing out in 2024, with South Africa ranked fourth before the 2023 tournament before getting double points for one point wins over France, England and a 14-man New Zealand side.
The impact of the juiced ranking is ongoing, with past results playing a weighted factor in the exchange system and taking up to two years to flush out. That they have lost the top spot already is quite remarkable, but without a sustained run of winning is inevitable.
In 2022 we saw France go through the calendar year unbeaten after a Grand Slam Six Nations title and wins over Japan, Australia and South Africa in November. From July 2021 to February 2023 they put 14 consecutive Tests win together before being stopped by Ireland.
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Ireland themselves went on a run of 17 consecutive Test wins after their loss to New Zealand in the first Test of the 2022 July series, ending at the quarter-final stage of the Rugby World Cup.
That kind of sustained excellence has escaped the back-to-back Rugby World Cup winners who often squeak by on fine margins. South Africa’s longest winning run since 2018 when Erasmus took over is six in a row, occurring twice.
The second run came after the pool stage lost to Ireland last year until their loss to Ireland at home in the second Test in Durban, a run which we know featured a number of one point wins.
Outside of that there are short spurts of winning before succumbing to defeat, even going through slumps with multiple losses in a row.
Rugby Championship
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
South Africa
5
4
1
0
19
2
Argentina
5
3
2
0
14
3
New Zealand
5
2
3
0
11
4
Australia
5
1
4
0
5
The 2024 season was shaping up as the most consistent since the start of the Erasmus/Nienaber era. They had just one loss and were on a streak of five in a row before slipping up to Argentina. Both the losses this year have been just by one point.
Yet if we are to discount the closeness of these two losses as bad luck or misfortune, then all three knockout wins won by one point last year have to be qualified as good luck. It goes both ways.
Certainly Jordie Barrett missing a go-ahead penalty with three minutes remaining was a massive slice of good luck for the Springboks, and the gift-of-all-gifts, an opposition red card in the first half played a huge role.
A view from one side of the coin says Jordie Barrett’s miss spared the Springboks the ultimate humiliation; losing a World Cup final with a one man advantage. A healthy dose of humility should come with that realisation.
If Barrett’s kick was two metres to the right, there is no tyre pump for South Africa’s ranking and the entire narrative arc for the Springboks this year is different. All of the sudden they aren’t in the ‘greatest ever’ discussion. The mediocre results up to 2023 aren’t glossed over.
While they are finally having a good year and will likely win the Rugby Championship, the most puzzling of all the narratives recently is that somehow South Africa have cleared Ireland.
When and where did this happen? Certainly not in July when they lost at home to them. The Springboks have won one of the last five against the Irish and just two of those games were on Irish soil. They lost in 2022, 2023 and 2024 to Andy Farrell’s side.
Ireland still own the Springboks until further notice. It takes sustained winning over a rival to proclaim one’s superiority.
South Africa have the recent ledger over New Zealand and over Australia, but not Ireland. In fact, it’s the opposite. And the world rankings (finally) reflect that, at least for the next week.
Don’t cry now that the rankings can’t hold up the hot balloon, they are what pumped the air into it in the first place.
Watch the highly acclaimed five-part documentary Chasing the Sun 2, chronicling the journey of the Springboks as they strive to successfully defend the Rugby World Cup, free on RugbyPass TV (*unavailable in Africa)
love your work Ben
Makes sense
Ireland lose the important ones tho. Cant win a 1/4 final at a WC. They are like the athelete that wins everything but cant get hold of an Olympic medal.