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Stats guru and rugby oracle Paul Neazor answers the big question of everyone’s lips this week: who’s going to win the Mitre 10 Cup (formerly the ITM Cup, aka the NPC)? With the season set to start on Rugby Pass on Thursday he previews all 14 provinces.
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Auckland (Premiership)
The wildcard of the Mitre 10 Cup, if a second favourite can really be called a wildcard. Last year they brought up the best crop of first year players I’ve seen anywhere in a long time, and got as far as the final before losing to Canterbury. Along the way they put in some big performances, notably the two against Tasman, and a few not-so-good ones, particularly the failed Ranfurly Shield challenge at Napier. Auckland will make the four easily, and have the ability to win the whole thing.
Bay of Plenty (Championship)
Bay of Plenty’s big strength in recent seasons has been a forward pack that can stand up to anyone, although the backs have not been of the same calibre and average finishing has cost several winnable matches. The pack is still experienced and strong, while a couple of imports from Waikato in Joe Webber and Regan Ware might add a bit of oomph to a backline that still looks light on experience and game-breakers. Goal-kicking will be another concern, especially as the 2015 returns were nothing to get excited about and most teams did better. The Steamers will have to be at their absolute best if they are to progress past the semis.
Canterbury (Premiership)
Canterbury will always be rated highly, especially as they are the defending champions. As ever the team looks strong – there will be hopes and expectations that Richie Mo’unga will deliver the same sort of performances that he did in Super Rugby while the forwards are bigger than most packs and as strong as any. As always, Canterbury will be paying about $1.01 to make the four; they will do that in a stroll and should probably be back in the final come the end of the season.
Counties-Manukau (Premiership)
The draw didn’t do Counties-Manukau huge favours, as two of the three teams they don’t play are the outsiders in the Championship, while player movement and injury have also chipped away at what has been a solid mid-table side for the last three years. There’s a solid core to the team although it’s a bit hard to say exactly what the greatest strength is. Given enough ball and some dry tracks, I suspect the backline is capable of doing a lot of damage but getting that ball may be the issue. Once again the Steelers should be mid-table; I can’t really see them threatening the big four but neither do I rate them as the weakest side in the top half.
Hawke’s Bay (Premiership)
I see the race between Counties-Manukau and Hawke’s Bay to avoid relegation as being one of the key parts of their Premiership campaigns, which makes their Week 3 matchup one of the more important matches in the early going. Hawke’s Bay gets most of the tougher Championship teams as well, so the Magpies season will not be an easy one. There are enough experienced men in key positions to guide the side around the field, but it will be a surprise if they really threaten the playoffs.
Manawatu (Championship)
Manawatu haven’t done badly in the draw, missing two of the teams I think will make up the top four, and the Turbos should be right in the Championship playoff mix. They’ll be solid – they have a few game-breakers in the side and, in Otere Black, one of the more accurate kickers going around. The team might like to kick a few more penalties this year and not spot their opponents 20-point head-starts. If they can do that there’s no reason they shouldn’t make the Championship final. They’ll make the four without trouble, but I do think they have the ability and now a fair degree of hardness required to shoot a bit higher than that.
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North Harbour (Championship)
Often North Harbour looks good and then the air goes out of the tyres as soon as the season kicks off. This year’s side has the usual mix of well-performed players and interesting newbies but there aren’t the gnarly old veterans any more – apart from James Parsons, Chris Smylie and Rene Ranger, nobody in the team has played over 40 provincial matches. I always think Harbour will go better than they eventually do; this year I’ll rein in my expectations.
Northland (Championship)
Northland didn’t have a good season last year and some of the better players aren’t back this season. They will have one of the better loose trios in the Championship, though, and a few speedsters who can do damage on the day. On the other hand, the tight five isn’t overburdened with big or particularly experienced players, the inside backs look okay but you have to wonder what sort of ball they’ll be working with, and the outside backs can be lethal one day and flaky the next. Someone has to finish last, and this year I think Northland is probably going to be that team.
Otago (Championship)
Otago get one of the harder draws, with three of last year’s semi-finalists on the card, and they’ve lost a couple of significant players without getting any real game-breakers in return. They would love to get Hayden Parker back some time soon but he wasn’t named in the initial squad and those injuries are taking a long time to come right. There’s a solid look to Otago, especially up front, but they’ll want to win a couple of games that have eluded them in recent seasons. They should definitely make the four, but after that it becomes a little more interesting.
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Southland (Championship)
Southland has lost Willis Halaholo, who was such a big part of the Hurricanes success this season, and Lima Sopoaga and Elliot Dixon are both with the All Blacks and likely to play just a handful of games between them. That takes out the Stags’ three biggest weapons meaning the Maroons could well battle this season. Having said that, home field advantage in the Deep South can be more important than up north and could possibly be worth a couple of wins. As always Southland will battle and grind for everything they get this year, and it might not be as much as in recent seasons. Making the four will be a decent effort.
Taranaki (Premiership)
Taranaki will have one midfielder who is not needed by the All Blacks just at present and could have another if Charlie Ngatai can recover from his concussion issues. The amber-and-black forwards will be a solid unit and the rest of the backs potentially dangerous. All of which adds up to a team that will be a force in the Premiership, even if I don’t see them being the force that Auckland or Canterbury should be. Taranaki has lost more than it has gained in the offseason but the most interesting newcomer could well be the Heartland XV schoolboy first-five from 2015, Stephen Perofeta, who is regarded as a very promising youngster with a big future.
Tasman (Premiership)
Tasman should be one of the teams to beat again, as the squad is settled and very similar to the 2015 side. The biggest loss this year is likely to be Liam Squire, who can bust games wide open at this level, and do it on an almost weekly basis. Tasman does have a fair few newcomers but those players can slot in around a core group who have almost all played Super Rugby by now, so there aren’t any glaring weaknesses. Having a new coach in Leon MacDonald will be interesting, since Kieran Keane did big things with the team over a period of several years, but it should be business as usual in the top of the South Island. The four should be a lock; anything more than that might be an effort.
Waikato (Premiership)
Despite being the current Ranfurly Shield holder, Waikato is not considered a favourite for the Premiership. In fact the only thing they are favoured for is the wooden spoon and relegation. The Mooloos lost a lot of players in the offseason and more recently lost Anton Lienert-Brown to the All Blacks. They have a number of holes to fill and many of those are behind the scrum. Brad Weber may be the biggest loss, but he’s one of what is almost a full backline to ship out this season. What the Mooloos do with Damian McKenzie will be interesting – I think we’ve seen his best position is fullback but the temptation may be to use him as a ten because the ranks are a bit bare otherwise. If Waikato don’t get off to a good start relegation is a real danger, but a few successful Shield defences will resolve that problem speedily.
Wellington (Championship)
It won’t be the draw-makers fault if Wellington does not finish right up the top of the Championship section – any draw that means you miss both Premiership finalists and one of the semi-finalists has to be considered extremely good fortune. That said, Wellington should be one of the strongest teams across the whole competition, especially as a number of Hurricanes are fit and available. This is pretty simple: If the Lions don’t win promotion either a) they have had the world’s worst injury run or b) questions need to be asked on a lot of fronts. I doubt any team has been such a hot favourite in the second section for many years.
Playoffs picks
Premiership: same as the last two years – Auckland, Canterbury, Taranaki and Tasman
Championship: Bay of Plenty, Manawatu, Otago and Wellington
