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Expect Wales to dominate, and All Blacks have a chance – Adam Jones
By Adam Jones
Test rugby in the northern hemisphere is pretty strong and I’m predicting an all-European line-up for the Rugby World Cup semi-finals. That’s a shift compared to what has happened before, but you wouldn’t be overly surprised either to see all four quarter-finals go the other way and we end up with an all-southern hemisphere last-four.
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That said, I’m going for Wales by 10 points on Saturday against Argentina. Before, when you talked about beating the Pumas, it was about matching them in the scrum but I don’t know if their scrum is what it used to be back in the day with the Ledesmas, the Hasans, the Ronceros, the Scelzos, and the Albacetes.
It’s not that anymore and I’d imagine if Wales don’t dominate in the scrum, they will be disappointed. I fancy Wales to get after it and beat them up front.
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Putting two sevens in will also slow Argentina down and pressure the 10, keeping the ball away from Mateo Carreras, who is a pretty special player. History backs Argentina around the forward stuff but I can see Wales dominating.
Starting two sevens isn’t a bad thing. It will create a lot of ball pressure. Tommy Reffell and Jac Morgan are fantastic players. Reffell is one of the standout sevens in the Premiership, just behind our seven Will Evans at Harlequins in turnovers, and then Morgan has been brilliant.
Taulupe Faletau is a massive loss, though. Welsh fans shouldn’t underestimate how big a loss he is going to be, especially his experience as this was his fourth World Cup. He was in New Zealand in 2011 as a kid and was brilliant then, so it just shows his level of performance over his career.
There are massive shoes to fill there with him missing but Aaron Wainwright is a good operator, even though he has a different type of delivery.
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Dan Biggar is also back at out-half. He is similar to the Farrells and the Sextons of this world, very demanding of the players around him and he has always been the same. He was like that as an 18-year-old, basically bossing the Welsh front five and a couple of All Blacks in the Ospreys team as a teenager.
Now, he is emotional and he got a lot of flak for how he was against Fiji, but that’s him. If you knew him, the boys wouldn’t have been upset. From the outside, it looked a lot worse but the boys took it in their stride and Biggar has been brilliant.
I thought Gareth Anscombe was excellent as well in the Australia game and Sam Costelow last time out. There is a lot of depth there but Biggar, with Justin Tipuric, Ken Owens, and Alun Wyn Jones now gone, is the emotional heartbeat of this Wales team and I’d imagine he will be leading.
Morgan is a little bit quieter in his leadership and does all his talking on the field, but Biggar would be the second in command, bossing everyone around and into positions to win the game. He never really screamed at me, though. He was aware of the many penalties I used to win for him in the scrum that he would be able to kick, so he never said much to me.
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Wales have been brilliant this World Cup. The way they are going, the way they are talking, they fancy a crack at winning it, which is brilliant to see as a Welshman. Brilliant, too, is the form of Louis Rees-Zammit.
He has been around a while now, has toured with the Lions, and has a good few Test caps, but he has stepped up to a different level at this World Cup. He’s had a documentary made about him so there is a bit of pressure – he has got to back that up. Anyone who has a documentary made about them, there is a bit of hype.
Why Dan Biggar, Wales' "emotional heartbeat", never lost his rag with Bomb…
– The Adam Jones Rugby World Cup column in association with Saxo. #RWC2023 #WALvARG #Wales pic.twitter.com/uCL5cnA9vS
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But he has got a bit of a swagger. He is crazy fast and he isn’t just fast, he has got much more to his game, which is brilliant. He has been class and has made some big statements about wanting to be the best player in the world and he is going the right way about it.
It’s not quite as simple as getting the ball and scoring but he has certainly put his marker down as one of the top performers so far in the World Cup. I’m pleased for him.
I met him a few times at Gloucester when we played them and he’s a nice kid, really polite and respectful, and a lot bigger than I thought. He’s actually quite a big lad, so he has a bit of physicality about him too. He had really been doing great and that hopefully will carry on this weekend.
Switching to Ireland versus the All Blacks, you imagine there are millions and millions of kids around the world dying to watch it. Everyone has kind of written the All Blacks off a little bit.
They have been good the last few games, don’t get me wrong, but they are not seen as the power they were and Ireland is this new all-singing, all-dancing juggernaut which pressurises teams both in attack and defence.
Ireland are favourites, but it is going to be close and it’s not a foregone conclusion. If New Zealand match Ireland’s maul, slow down Ireland’s ball, avoid turnovers and get quick ball even though Ireland have so many jackal threats and are unbelievably good at slowing ball, New Zealand have got a chance.
If anybody knows how to break this Irish defence down it is the All Blacks and under Joe Schmidt, they might have a little few extra clues. I’m sure they are going to be pretty smart about how they attack. Ireland are missing James Ryan but Iain Henderson is pretty good.
I played against him when he was a young fella and he could get his arms into rucks, into mauls to slow the ball down. He was taught by some old-fashioned Ulster locks over the years and knows how to slow the game down. You have also got Josh van der Flier, Andrew Porter, all these players. There are a phenomenal defensive unit at the moment with Simon Easterby as their defence coach.
On the other side of the ball, I can’t imagine New Zealand are going to rush defend the Irish because if they do that, Ireland are 10 metres over the gain line and have got quick ball. Scott McLeod is the All Blacks defence coach and it’s a massive, massive game on him. He will be under a lot of pressure on how to stem this Irish attack. I’d like to say a draw, but I’ll go Ireland by three.
- This Rugby World Cup guest column is brought to you in association with the renewed partnership between Harlequins and official trading partner Saxo, a global leader in online investing, for the 2023/2024 Gallagher Premiership season;
- Aside from Wales legend and Harlequins coach Adam Jones, ex-Ireland hooker-turned-coach Jerry Flannery and England lock Joe Launchbury will also be writing columns over the course of the tournament.
Hahaha.
1 down.
3 to go.
SH till I die
Wales is once again conservative and successful with experienced players. I didn't like Argentina's gameplan very much at this worldcup. Wales favorite, but if the Pumas use their talent and passion, then they will stay in the race.Ireland seem to be the clearly superior team mentally against NZL. Perfect processes and very high discipline let them win 17 in a row. Nevertheless, also this QF must first be won. Many people also saw Ireland as the favorite 4 years ago. It's a World Cup knock out match. The Irish's self-confidence could be punished if the All Blacks rediscover their total winning characterNo kidding? All blacks have a chance? Cheers brew.