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Experimental selection must stop for Joe Schmidt’s Bledisloe showdown
If you had told Wallabies supporters at the start of the year that they would be heading into the Bledisloe series on the same number of wins as the All Blacks, most of them probably would’ve jumped at it.
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The Wallabies have won four of their seven matches, sitting at a 57 win-percentage heading into Bledisloe one, but make no mistake the Wallabies and the All Blacks are not playing at the same level.
The equal win ratio does not reflect where the two sides are at, and Joe Schmidt must pick his most experienced and skilful side to avoid a bloodbath from a All Blacks side hurting after a two-nil series defeat against South Africa.
Schmidt has been pragmatic about the season to date, saying he needs time to develop his inexperienced side.
This notion has logic, is showing results, and will continue to do so the longer Schmidt has with this group, but some marquee events like the Bledisloe requires a different approach.
The coveted Bledisloe trophy for Australians and New Zealanders has a mythical status, one which rivals even that of a World Cup, or at least it did until New Zealand went on a 21-year-long streak.
You only have to look at The Rugby Championship points-for (PF), points-against (PA) ledger to see how big the gap is, the Wallabies are the only side with a negative points differential sitting at -83 (+/-).
Rugby Championship
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
South Africa
4
4
0
0
18
2
Argentina
4
2
2
0
10
3
New Zealand
4
1
3
0
7
4
Australia
4
1
3
0
4
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The Bledisloe drought must be broken and if Schmidt and his men are to have any chance of doing so, Schmidt must select the tried and tested.
He must select his most experienced and best squad; the experimentation must cease for this two-game window.
Schmidt has the entire Spring Tour to carry a bloated squad, the tour will include Australia A matches which will be perfect for trialling players and ideas, but the Bledisloe must be taken with deadly seriousness.
Who comes in
Previously injured captain Liam Wright is the first player Schmidt should put on his recall list.
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His work-rate as a no.6 was second to none during Super Rugby Pacific.
His ability to clean rucks effectively and accurately as well pilfer means he’s one of the most disruptive breakdown threats in Australia.
His attack has also gone to a new level in 2024, his ability to split defenders has been aided by the kilos he seems to have added to his frame.
As Schmidt’s first choice captain, he also adds another leader to the inexperienced cohort as well a lineout caller, who is a pest at the defensive lineout.
The second man on Schmidt’s list must be Fraser McReight.
The Queensland Reds no.7 is one of the Wallabies best loose-play running threats and it is an element the side has missed while he’s been injured.
His experience is also invaluable and so are the connections he has with players like Harry Wilson, Tate McDermott, and Matt Faessler who have been mainstays of Schmidt’s teams.
However, he does not automatically walk back into the starting side like his Reds captain Wright, because Carlo Tizzano has been beyond impressive with his near immaculate tackle record and consistent breakdown turnovers.
Tizzano’s rapid rise to a Test level brawler means McReight will have to prove himself in training and it could very well see McReight enter the Bledisloe fray from the bench.
The two have played impressively enough to warrant having one of them on the bench, perhaps for a 6-2 split.
A player who has been on a lengthier injury lay-off but who can bring size, experience, and versatility to the Wallabies is Rob Leota.
He suffered a grade two hamstring strain and should’ve returned to training throughout August.
Whether he is ready to play in Bledisloe one remains to be seen but his experience, leadership qualities, and ability cover almost the entire backrow as well as the second row is an asset.
His 190cm and 110kg of beef would help the Wallabies in their bid to increase their gainline metres.
The weekend’s demolition at the hands of Los Pumas showed the Wallabies locking stocks are very light on, so although there are more experienced locks in Australia,
none of them have taken Schmidt’s fancy or have had recent form.
The reality is there are no quick fixes in that department.
Likewise, there are some questions which must be answered in the front row.
James Slipper and Allan Alaalatoa have been far from impressive and have not been holding up at scrum time.
Nevertheless, their experience alone warrants their continued selection in the squad so they can bring through the next generation.
Alaalatoa is also coming back from a ruptured Achilles, so he is still getting back to the height of his powers.
Isaac Aedo Kailea has truly impressed and has allowed Schmidt to bide his time with Angus Bell, who has been majorly impressive since his return from another foot injury.
At tighthead prop, Tom Robertson should be strongly considered to be the second pick tighthead while Alaalatoa finds his form.
Kailea holds his own so it’s really only at tighthead-prop where the Wallabies need some bolstering, but the stocks are razor thin, Zane Nonggorr has not shown yet he is a force at scrum time.
Who goes out
Tom Hooper, Langi Gleeson, and Angus Blyth have all struggled to bring impact in their Tests so far.
Hooper is a big lad, and Blyth is even bigger, but they have failed to impose themselves physically on oppositions.
Gleeson is a power athlete, but it doesn’t seem as though Schmidt has found the best way to use him yet.
Gleeson has a raw strength and acceleration few other forwards his age possess but he’s been unable to bring those strengths to the fore for the Wallabies this year.
Blyth needed to show he could be an enforcer, Hooper had to illustrate his versatility and carry game while Gleeson needed to bend the line, none of them showed even glimpses of these qualities.
This is not to say they should be ruled out for the rest of the year, but they have not impressed enough to retain a spot in the squad for this two Test window for the Bledisloe.
During the Spring Tour Schmidt will have plenty of time to embed his concepts in a more controlled and intense environment, and it is there where he could begin to unlock these players as well as others’ full potential.
The Wallabies have their backs against the wall for the Bledisloe, they have history, recent form and inexperience all against them leading into this clash.
Nevertheless, there is an instability within the All Blacks which just makes them feel off, if Schmidt and his men even want a sniff at clinching one of the upcoming two
Tests then Schmidt is going to have to go conservative and play his most experienced and best 23.
John Ferguson’s team to play Bledisloe 1
1. Isaac Aedo Kailea
2. Matt Faessler
3. Taniela Tupou
4. Nick Frost
5. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto
6. Liam Wright
7. Carlo Tizzano
8. Rob Valetini
9. Jake Gordon
10. Noah Lolesio
11. Marika Koroibete
12. Hamish Stewart
13. Len Ikitau
14. Andrew Kellaway
15. Tom Wright
Replacements
16. Brandon Paenga-Amosa
17. Angus Bell
18. Tom Robertson
19. Jeremy Williams
20. Fraser McReight
21. Harry Wilson
22. Tate McDermott
23. Ben Donaldson
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Backline defence was a big problem, connection between Ikitau and Stewart was dreadful and Stewart far too passive. Ikitau doesn’t have confidence in Stewart and that’s a big problem. Paisami was an attacking defensive player and read the game well and picked off plays early, put in dominant tackles and with Paisami both could be strong in defence, with Stewart Ikitau is finding himself marking multiple players because Stewart is a more negative defensive player. Stewart needs to go and Ikitau needs to start running the defence with dominance. Ikitau was poor on the weekend but the work inside him not just from Stewart was atrocious.
Noting Paisami's aggression in defence is vert apt, his connect with Ikitau is much better than most are aware. Those two in the centres and that score would never had happened.
Tizzano is pretty one dimensional compared to McReight. McReight is a far more complete player and adds way more than tackling. His support play alone, forwards to back link, half back at lineouts, leadership etc. He walks straight back in.
I think his breakdwon work is just as good as McReight and is easily better than McReight's after four Tests. I agree McReight has a better running game but we need him in there to make the breakdwon hell for the opposition and to make strong tackles.
Tizzano has made a good amount of dominant tackles against some of the world's best forwards.
Not sure of your judgment here mate.
Two main problems for Aus are scrum and backline D.
AA and Slipper have to go. Bring in Scott Sio and Latu if they are free. Former played well for Exeter and Latu is playing well in France. They need then to find an additional tighthead. Nongoor is worse at scrum time than AA. Robertson is not a good scrummager either so may as well go for Pone as he at least is the best running prop in Aus with Bell. Until Blake is back.
Donaldson is a better 10 than Noah but both of them need a proper 12 and 15 to support their games. Paisami is not at international level so better off going for 40 mins of Kerevi and Reece Hodge as Hodge can help with kicking game and can drop back to 15.
Wright is too inconsistent and lacks judgment. Better off with Hodge and Kellaway or the 15 from the Reds. Need some proper speed on the wing so go with the 7s guy.
McReight isn’t international level. He gets blown off the ball and his D is not as good as Tizzano. So better off with the former and load up size at 8 and blindside. Agree with Leota choice.
Then you obviously have Skelton, the Arnold Bros and guys like Samu who are playing well OS and Samu better in attack than McReight and Tizzano but not as good as Tizzano in D.
With those guys in the team is much more competitive.
While this list of players is great none of them are realsitic. It won't help at the moment.
Hodge, Latu, Sio not on the radar I don't think. Also, LHP is not where the immediate issue is, it's at THP, if AAA is not performing who do we pull in?
Donaldson is completely hopeless. He wouldn't be in the top 5 Australian 10's.
He's only there because he from Randwick.
Tizzano is nowhere near McReight.
Never liked the wallabies but to see where they are now is very sad. Always had such skillful and intelligent players.
HAve to get the Koko boys to lace up.
It amuses me that the Brumbies have been by far the most successful SR team for 20 years yet no one wants to pick them(except me). Try Ryan Lonergan as halfback for a start!
Who would you select Margaret? Lonergan, Muirhead, Cale?
An intelligent coach knows who the best players are on day one.
A penny for the thoughts of Brett Hodgson on the Wallabies defence after Laurie Fisher's thoughts on last year's defensive system implemented by Hodgson.
Can never win as a selector:
"Get rid of the tired old guard"
"Select and stick - how can you build combinations without experience?"
Only way to silence the experts- winning :)