Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.

I only played against France in Paris once during my career, and by the time I came on the game was already lost. France got ahead and stayed ahead.  No French team is an easy prospect in Paris despite some new coaches, faces and their recent patchy form.

Ireland are, quite rightly, strong favourites for this weekend’s match in Paris, and they’re many people’s favourite for the Championship. But if they don’t start well things may not go to plan and Joe Schmidt, maybe more than any other coach in the Six Nations, likes things to go strictly in accordance to plan.

Against Scotland last year, a team England mercilessly put to the sword, Ireland were caught cold in their opener and dealt a fatal blow to their prospects in the Championship. The year before, it was in Paris that Ireland got derailed. Ireland won’t want to repeat either incarnation of those mistakes this weekend.

There are may be a few small surprises in selection for Ireland, if only because surprises are not normally the Joe Schmidt way. James Ryan was always going to be involved at some stage, but I didn’t predict it would be from the start in Paris. I expected him to find his feet in the Championship from the bench in the same way I expect Jordan Larmour to feature.

Ireland are strong right throughout the pack and I think Josh Van Der Flier nudging past Dan Levy in the race to replace the injured Sean O’Brien is the right call. Murray and Sexton are the best half-back pairing in the Championship and Ireland have strength right across the backline.

The depth of the Irish squad has also improved in the last couple of seasons, which will be a big plus in Japan next year. You only need to cast an eye over the list of Irish replacements for Paris to see evidence of that.

It’s easy to forget how “provincial” in a very literal sense Irish rugby is. The Ireland squad for this year’s Six Nations remains very much, a Leinster squad. The interprovincial rivalry for squad places one of my old Club’s Ulster should be incredibly happy with three starts from only four players in the original thirty-six.

As for France, they have a new team in charge with Jacques Brunel and will have maybe a greater margin of tolerance than usual from their fans. The management have in a sense bought themselves some time, by experimenting with new names at ten and fifteen, something which I fully expect Ireland to target. What may become apparent over the next few weeks, is that France are in a sense “writing off” this year’s Six Nations in a concerted effort to built for Japan next year. That is definitely not the case for Joe Schmidt’s Ireland squad, anything less than a Championship will be viewed with disappointment.

The best thing about playing away in Paris? I’ve heard if you win, there’s no shortage of great places to celebrate.  Try Le 41 after 12pm, ask for Denise….

Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.