Baxter gives update on Nowell and other Exeter walking wounded

"Look at the kick:pass ratio from England’s games under Borthwick:

Italy 20:100

Argentina 50:100

South Africa 53:100

Fiji 24:100

Samoa 22:100

Chile 12:100

Japan 25:100

Argentina 55:100

Fiji 30:100

Ireland 21:100

Wales 24:100

Wales 13:100

Ireland 26:100

France 22:100

Wales 26:100

Italy 23:100

Scotland 18:100

The average is 27:100

The average in games we have won is 28:100

The average in games we have lost is 26:100, but these averages are skewed by the fact that we have tended to kick less and pass more against worse sides

The average in games where we have beaten current top 10 sides is 35:100

The average in games where we have beaten current top 8 sides is 39:100

The average in games where we have beaten current top 7 sides is 53:100

The average in games where we have lost to teams currently ranked lower than us is 20:100"

on the article "Four talking points after England's narrowest-ever win over Italy" I said:

"Look at the kick:pass ratio from England’s last 8 games

Italy 20:100

Argentina 50:100

South Africa 53:100

Fiji 24:100

Samoa 22:100

Chile 12:100

Japan 25:100

Argentina 55:100

So (1) England spread it wide more yesterday than against anyone bar Chile, and (2) all of england’s best performances have been when we kick loads, and in every match where we kick loads we have had a good performance."

"In particular you're neglecting the impact of the type of D Felix Jones was trying to introduce, which demanded most of England's training energy at the time."

I'm not, actually, I'm hyper aware of that fact and of its impact. I think it is because of the defence that England's new attack faltered so much for the first three games, something you ignore when you try to judge England's attack in the six nations by taking an average of either the trys scored or the rucks completed over the whole tournament.

"International coaches don't just pick those styles like sweets from a sweet shop!"

Yeah, I know. England's defence wasn't exactly the same as SA's, but it was similar. England's attack did rely on turnovers more than the Irish system did, but it was still pretty similar to it, and then shifted to something similar-but-not-identitcal to the Labit/Nick Evans systems, which are themselves similar but not identical.

why can't it? it empirically did last year.

"That is why England sat 34 rucks adrift of Ireland in the 6N..."

You refuse to engage with the point that rucks completed only tells the full story when the Irish-style attack is being executed successfully - which it wasn't for the first 3 games. Disingenous at best! In the match against Ireland, England completed more rucks than Ireland did; so you think England weren't running an Irish style attack because they completed too few rucks, but Ireland completed even fewer in that match, so I guess in that match Ireland weren't running an Irish style attack? Make it make sense!

Your argument is far too patchy to stand up I'm afraid!

I think Ntamack was a better player at 21 than Marcus is at 25. I think his game will continue to develop, but I don't think either of them will get very much better. Dan Carter became an incredible game manager as he got older, but he never dominated the opposition more than he did aged 23. Wilkinson pretty indisputably hit his peak at 24. Not everyone is Johnny Sexton, and most players who are touted as prodigies turn out to have peaked young.

"That, or the English game has been slow to develop. I'll let you decide the answer to that one Finn 😉"

no, England have generally looked like a good side when Smith isn't in the team.

"Great job illustrating he's the man to take England to WC 27' though, kinda counter to wanting a 35yo Farrell!"

literally no one is arguing for Farrell.

Defence is a problem, but I don't know what should be done about it. I'd like england to stick with the felix jones system, but its pointless for me to make that claim, given I have no idea whether el-abd is capable of coaching that system. Ultimately I just have to trust him and Borthwick to come up with the best solution.

But I do know enough to say that Marcus is a worse fly-half than Fin and Ford, and that some of the issues with defence would be fixed if they prioritised a more controlled attacking and kicking game over the chaos that Marcus brings and which allows the blitz to be thrown into disarray on the counter.

I'd play Ford or Fin.

Marcus Smith is playing in a much more settled system. Yeah, the defensive system is changing but not as dramatically as it was in the 6N, and the only reason the attacking system would be changing is to adapt it to Smith's weaknesses.

so in the 2023 six nations, England lost both games where Marcus started at 10, which was the games against Scotland and France. The scotland game was poor, but spirited, and the french game was maybe the worst math england have played in almost 30 years. In all 3 games where Marcus didn't start England were pretty good.

The next game he started after that was the loss against Wales in the RWC warmups, which is one of only three games Borthwick has lost against teams currently ranked lower than england.

The next game he's started have been the last 7, so that's two wins against Japan, three losses against NZ, a loss to SA, and a loss to Australia (again, one of borthwicks only losses to teams ranked lower than england).

"I think I understand were you're coming from, and you make a good observation that the 10 has a fair bit to do with how fast a side can play (though what you said was a 'Marcus neutral' statement)"

no, it wasn't a marcus neutral statement.

"Fin could be, but as you've said with Marcus, that would require a lot of change elsewhere in the team 2 years out of a WC"

how? what? why? Fin could slot in easily; its Marcus who requires the team to change around him.

"Marcus will get a 6N to prove himself so to speak"

yes, the 2022 six nations, which was a disaster, just as its been a disaster every other time he's been given the reigns.

is there a debate about whether to persist with ben earl at 8? he's been brilliant there, and if england want someone with more heft in the carry theres always CCS at 6 (and Martin at 5!). idk - maybe Borthwick will end up picking willis instead, but I really don't think he sees Earl at 8 as being a problematic selection.

30k is a really nice stadium size, but it does bring in the conundrum that it loses appeal when the club turns to hard times, and isn't as popular. So 25k might be a nice middle ground. Where a lot of NZ stadiums sit.