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Five predictions for the All Blacks ahead of the Rugby Championship

Will Jordan of the All Blacks scores a try during The Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup match between the New Zealand All Blacks and the Australia Wallabies at Eden Park on September 24, 2022 in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

The All Blacks first 36-man squad of the year offered up six newcomers in line for debuts as they refine the team ahead of big year and Ian Foster’s last hurrah as head coach.

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Some of the new selections were expected like Cam Roigard and Tamaiti Williams, whilst the shock omission from a ‘bolter’ point of view was Shaun Stevenson, who was initially overlooked for Emoni Narawa.

Although there will likely be new debutants before the Rugby World Cup, it doesn’t mean the rookies will be on the plane to France, as former All Blacks Lima Sopoaga and Josh Ioane can attest to.

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The truncated Rugby Championship is often a bumpy period for the All Blacks, who have not won the title yet in a World Cup year.

The last time they took home the SANZAAR silverware in a World Cup year was 2007 in the Tri Nations.

Here are five predictions for the All Blacks ahead of their Rugby Championship campaign.

Damian McKenzie will get a run in the No 10 jersey

His last Test as a starting All Black first five came in 2021 against Argentina and before that it was against France in 2018.

With Mo’unga and Barrett the undisputed top two for a long time in New Zealand, McKenzie hasn’t had many chances at 10 but that should change after his top form during Super Rugby with the Chiefs.

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The Chiefs playmaker inked a long-term commitment to NZR this year, while both Mo’unga and Barrett are headed offshore next year.

Surely NZR will want to give their investment as the future 10 a test drive before he takes over in 2024 and the Rugby Championship is the perfect time to do that.

Will Jordan will become the All Blacks’ permanent fullback 

Watching Jordan tear through the Blues in the first half of the semi-final before finding the last pass for Leicester Fainga’anuku was sublime fullback play that showed why the Crusaders’ No 15 is one of the best attacking weapons in the rugby world.

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The time is right for Jordan to take over the No 15 jersey ahead of the Rugby World Cup, with the 25-year-old at his peak athletically. To wait for another World Cup would waste this opportunity, where he would be 29 and a different player.

He possesses the speed, acceleration and strength to break open anyone and has proven time and time again to be a game breaker. More touches for Jordan is bad news for any opposition.

The move makes sense and is needed. Jordie Barrett has moved into the midfield, while Beauden has been out of sorts over the back half of the season. Jordan is the strike player to add some lightening to the All Blacks back line at the perfect time.

It would also open the door for Stevenson, Telea or Narawa to wear the No 14 jersey, three of the hardest players to tackle in New Zealand.

A rough start in Argentina is very much on the cards

Los Pumas have not played the All Blacks at home since 2019, where they nearly pulled off a historic win as a last-second rolling maul by the Pumas was disarmed to preserve a 20-16 win for the All Blacks.

Since that tight affair Argentina has knocked off the All Blacks twice in near identical fashion, once on neutral turf in Sydney and on New Zealand soil last season.

The monkey is finally off the back and there is no reason why Michael Chieka’s men can’t do it again, especially buoyed by playing at home.

Argentina were smoked in the second test in Hamilton last year, but not much can be read into that result after likely a week of celebrating their win in Christchurch.

Fresh and ready to ambush Foster’s men, Pablo Matera will be itching to tell Dane Coles he doesn’t belong in Mendoza.

The All Blacks better not experiment too much otherwise Argentina’s brutal defence will grind them into submission. David Kidwell has worked wonders with the side that looked desolate in 2021.

An ugly win by the All Blacks is all that is required against one of the best defences going around.

The All Blacks will lose to the Wallabies

One thing is pretty much certain in World Cup years, and that is that the All Blacks will lose to the Wallabies. It has happened in every World Cup year since 1999, either before or during the event.

In ’99 Australia finished the Tri-Nations with a 28-7 win in Sydney over the men in black, while in 2003 it was in the World Cup semi-final at Stadium Australia with George Gregan’s famous sledge.

In 2007 the Wallabies got up 20-15 at the MCG in the Tri Nations, in 2011 it was Radike Samo breaking away for a famous try that sealed the title for Australia in Brisbane.

In 2015 they won the Rugby Championship with a 27-19 win in Sydney with a late try to Nic White sealing the deal. The big 47-26 loss in Perth in 2019 cost Rieko Ioane and Ben Smith their starting wing jobs.

The Melbourne test at the MCG as the likely venue for another one as Eddie Jones whips up a frenzy to start the Wallabies hype train, only to be let down in the return Test in Dunedin.

Jones needs one win over the All Blacks to avoid a demoralising start as head coach.

Springboks Test will be a must-win

The clash against the Springboks at Mt Smart Stadium is the only home test for the All Blacks in the Rugby Championship, with the second Bledisloe fixture in Dunedin outside the tournament.

If they end up losing in Mendoza, it becomes a non-negotiable. The All Blacks must bury the Boks at the home of rugby league in New Zealand. The two sides will meet at Twickenham in a warm-up fixture but this Test is one with trophies at stake.

South Africa will send a strong line-up, unlike 2011 when they mailed over cannon fodder to Wellington.

A big win by the All Blacks against the ‘As’ will go a long way to sinking the Boks’ World Cup hopes early, which is why they cannot allow South Africa to get their desired sugar rush.

The game will be tougher than the last outing at Ellis Park without the altitude factor which helped the All Blacks, but the formula Foster found that day should still be effective.

It will be tough but the All Blacks should hold off the Boks by 5-10 points.

 

 

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3 Comments
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Euan 518 days ago

They should send the "reserve" team to play Argentina, otherwise they won't be able to beat the Boks back in Auckland just six days later. A tough draw.

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JW 3 hours ago
'Passionate reunion of France and New Zealand shows Fabien Galthie is wrong to rest his stars'

Ok, managed to read the full article..

... New Zealand’s has only 14 and the professional season is all over within four months. In France, club governance is the responsibility of an independent organisation [the Ligue Nationale de Rugby or LNR] which is entirely separate from the host union [the Fédération Française de Rugby or FFR]. Down south New Zealand Rugby runs the provincial and the national game.

That is the National Provincial Championship, a competition of 14 representative union based teams run through the SH international window and only semi professional (paid only during it's running). It is run by NZR and goes for two and a half months.


Super Rugby is a competition involving 12 fully professional teams, of which 5 are of New Zealand eligibility, and another joint administered team of Pacific Island eligibility, with NZR involvement. It was a 18 week competition this year, so involved (randomly chosen I believe) extra return fixtures (2 or 3 home and away derbys), and is run by Super Rugby Pacific's own independent Board (or organisation). The teams may or may not be independently run and owned (note, this does not necessarily mean what you think of as 'privately owned').


LNR was setup by FFR and the French Government to administer the professional game in France. In New Zealand, the Players Association and Super Rugby franchises agreed last month to not setup their own governance structure for professional rugby and re-aligned themselves with New Zealand Rugby. They had been proposing to do something like the English model, I'm not sure how closely that would have been aligned to the French system but it did not sound like it would have French union executive representation on it like the LNR does.

In the shaky isles the professional pyramid tapers to a point with the almighty All Blacks. In France the feeling for country is no more important than the sense of fierce local identity spawned at myriad clubs concentrated in the southwest. Progress is achieved by a nonchalant shrug and the wide sweep of nuanced negotiation, rather than driven from the top by a single intense focus.

Yes, it is pretty much a 'representative' selection system at every level, but these union's are having to fight for their existence against the regime that is NZR, and are currently going through their own battle, just as France has recently as I understand it. A single focus, ala the French game, might not be the best outcome for rugby as a whole.


For pure theatre, it is a wonderful article so far. I prefer 'Ntamack New Zealand 2022' though.

The young Crusader still struggles to solve the puzzle posed by the shorter, more compact tight-heads at this level but he had no problem at all with Colombe.

It was interesting to listen to Manny during an interview on Maul or Nothing, he citied that after a bit of banter with the All Black's he no longer wanted one of their jersey's after the game. One of those talks was an eye to eye chat with Tamaiti Williams, there appear to be nothing between the lock and prop, just a lot of give and take. I thought TW angled in and caused Taylor to pop a few times, and that NZ were lucky to be rewarded.

f you have a forward of 6ft 8ins and 145kg, and he is not at all disturbed by a dysfunctional set-piece, you are in business.

He talked about the clarity of the leadership that helped alleviate any need for anxiety at the predicaments unfolding before him. The same cannot be said for New Zealand when they had 5 minutes left to retrieve a match winning penalty, I don't believe. Did the team in black have much of a plan at any point in the game? I don't really call an autonomous 10 vehicle they had as innovative. I think Razor needs to go back to the dealer and get a new game driver on that one.

Vaa’i is no match for his power on the ground. Even in reverse, Meafou is like a tractor motoring backwards in low gear, trampling all in its path.

Vaa'i actually stops him in his tracks. He gets what could have been a dubious 'tackle' on him?

A high-level offence will often try to identify and exploit big forwards who can be slower to reload, and therefore vulnerable to two quick plays run at them consecutively.

Yes he was just standing on his haunches wasn't he? He mentioned that in the interview, saying that not only did you just get up and back into the line to find the opposition was already set and running at you they also hit harder than anything he'd experienced in the Top 14. He was referring to New Zealands ultra-physical, burst-based Super style of course, which he was more than a bit surprised about. I don't blame him for being caught out.


He still sent the obstruction back to the repair yard though!

What wouldn’t the New Zealand rugby public give to see the likes of Mauvaka and Meafou up front..

Common now Nick, don't go there! Meafou showed his Toulouse shirt and promptly got his citizenship, New Zealand can't have him, surely?!?


As I have said before with these subjects, really enjoy your enthusiasm for their contribution on the field and I'd love to see more of their shapes running out for Vern Cotter and the like styled teams.

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