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Five things we learned from this weekend's Autumn Nations

By PA
Marcus Smith and Jonny Hill - PA

The Autumn Nations Series produced wins for England, Ireland and Wales as the month’s action reached the midway stage.

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Here, the PA news agency examines five things we have learned from Saturday’s matches.

Steward rules the skies
It is staggering to think that Freddie Steward is only 21 years old, yet is already among England’s most influential players and one of the few names inked on to the teamsheet for the World Cup. Just 15 caps into his Test career and the 6ft 5in full-back is already approaching world class, a status that could be his if New Zealand and South Africa are successfully negotiated. A multi-faceted option in attack and imperious in the air, he has few weaknesses.

Japan’s decline
It was hard not to watch Japan’s 52-13 capitulation at Twickenham with a tinge of sadness as the team that lit up the 2019 World Cup with a no-fear brand of daredevil rugby was instead a hesitant and incohesive mess. The Brave Blossoms suffered more than most from the isolation caused by the pandemic with Covid-19 robbing them of the immediate chance to build on the success evident at the global showpiece they brilliantly hosted and it must be hoped that one of the game’s rising powers can rediscover their mojo.

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Injury-hit Ireland leave Farrell cold
For those fringe players looking to challenge Andy Farrell’s thinking in selection, it was a sizeable step backwards. “I thought we were awful, I thought we were poor” was Farrell’s reaction to a 35-17 victory over Fiji that generated more questions than answers in his planning for next year’s World Cup. Ireland sit atop the global rankings and have enjoyed a stellar year that is untarnished by an underwhelming afternoon against the Islanders, but the nine changes made because of a host of injuries to established players has only served to underline their importance to the team.

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Wales prove their mettle
It was not pretty, but Wales showed admirable resolve and composure to put their Autumn Nations Series back on track by beating resurgent Argentina 20-13 seven days after being destroyed by the All Blacks. Georgia and Australia will finish the year and Wales can enter those fixtures knowing they have the capacity to dig deep. It was a victory built on strong foundations, but they must prove it was not a one-off against opponents they are likely to face at next year’s World Cup.

Italy and France complete European clean sweep
Two results on Saturday have added to the expectation that the 2022 World Cup will be the most open yet as Italy claimed their first victory over Australia and France toppled South Africa in a mighty contest in Marseille. Italy, the Six Nations’ perennial losers, have now posted consecutive wins against tier one nations and there are signs that the success of their age group teams is starting to filter through to the highest level. Elsewhere in continental Europe, two red cards were seen in a titanic clash between title contenders that saw France give the clearest indication yet they have the nerve to win a competition they are hosting.

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Comments

2 Comments
D
DarstedlyDan 870 days ago

European clean sweep? Didn’t realise the ABs were from a small island off the coast of wales. Never let facts get in the way of a story, aye PA?

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JW 14 minutes ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

It is now 22 years since Michael Lewis published his groundbreaking treatise on winning against the odds

I’ve never bothered looking at it, though I have seen a move with Clint as a scout/producer. I’ve always just figured it was basic stuff for the age of statistics, is that right?

Following the Moneyball credo, the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available

This is actually a great example of what I’m thinking of. This concept has abosolutely nothing to do with Moneyball, it is simple being able to realise how skillsets tie together and which ones are really revelant.


It sounds to me now like “moneyball” was just a necessity, it was like scienctest needing to come up with some random experiment to make all the other world scholars believe that Earth was round. The American sporting scene is very unique, I can totally imagine one of it’s problems is rich old owners not wanting to move with the times and understand how the game has changed. Some sort of mesiah was needed to convert the faithful.


While I’m at this point in the article I have to say, now the NRL is a sport were one would stand up and pay attention to the moneyball phenom. Like baseball, it’s a sport of hundreds of identical repetitions, and very easy to data point out.

the tailor has to cut his cloth to the material available and look to get ahead of an unfair game in the areas it has always been strong: predictive intelligence and rugby ‘smarts’

Actually while I’m still here, Opta Expected Points analysis is the one new tool I have found interesting in the age of data. Seen how the random plays out as either likely, or unlikely, in the data’s (and algorithms) has actually married very closely to how I saw a lot of contests pan out.


Engaging return article Nick. I wonder, how much of money ball is about strategy as apposed to picks, those young fella’s got ahead originally because they were picking players that played their way right? Often all you here about is in regards to players, quick phase ruck ball, one out or straight up, would be were I’d imagine the best gains are going to be for a data driven leap using an AI model of how to structure your phases. Then moving to tactically for each opposition.

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