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Former All Black tips Hoskins Sotutu for international switch after latest snub

By Martyn Thomas
AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND - JUNE 22: Akira Ioane of the Blues and Hoskins Sotutu of the Blues celebrate following the Super Rugby Pacific Grand Final match between Blues and Chiefs at Eden Park, on June 22, 2024, in Auckland, New Zealand. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

Akira Ioane has added his name to the list of rugby luminaries tipping Blues No8 Hoskins Sotutu for a sensational international switch.

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Sotutu, 26, won the last of his 14 caps for the All Blacks in the 25-25 draw against England at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham in November 2022.

And despite being a pivotal member of the Blues side that won this year’s Super Rugby Pacific title, finishing as the season’s joint-top try-scorer, he continues to find himself in the Test wilderness.

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Hoskins Sotutu has fallen out of favour | The Breakdown

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Hoskins Sotutu has fallen out of favour | The Breakdown

Sotutu’s name was again absent from the New Zealand squad selected by Scott Robertson for the Northern Tour on Monday, and he is expected to miss out on a place with the All Blacks XV too.

If there is no recall in the next 13 months, then Sotutu could potentially make use of the World Rugby birthright transfer process to represent one of the two nations he also qualifies for through his family lineage.

Sotutu would qualify for Fiji through his father and England through his mother, and it has previously been reported that Eddie Jones pursued the No8 before he was first capped by New Zealand under Ian Foster.

Former Fiji head coach Simon Raiwalui made the case for the Flying Fijians earlier this year, but Ioane has playfully linked his club-mate with England once again.

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All Blacks Hoskins Sotutu

In an Instagram Story posted after the New Zealand squad was announced, Ioane – a former All Black himself – shared a mocked-up image of Sotutu standing in front of London’s Houses of Parliament in an England kit with head coach Steve Borthwick watching on.

A comment accompanying the image, and tagging Sotutu, stated: “Wasn’t meant to be but all things happen for a reason”.

Sotutu would need to sign for an English club if he is to make himself eligible for an England call-up and he currently has a contract with the Blues and Counties Manukau that runs until the end of 2026, making any switch of allegiance unlikely in the short term.

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However, given he only turned 26 in July, Sotutu would have no shortage of suitors should he decide to look at international options beyond New Zealand at the start of 2026.

Watch the highly acclaimed five-part documentary Chasing the Sun 2, chronicling the journey of the Springboks as they strive to successfully defend the Rugby World Cup, free on RugbyPass TV (*unavailable in Africa)

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F
Flankly 1 hour ago
'Luck undeniably plays a part in rugby, even if it might be taboo to admit it'

In top flight rugby the underdog wins only 8% of the time. In soccer it more like 29%. Not saying that's a good thing (there is research to show that jeopardy increases interest and attendance), but there is actually much less luck about rugby than other sports.


Fwiw I don't agree that narrowness of wins is much of a signal of luck. There are good examples of top players consistently raising their games by just enough to beat the opponent in front of them. For example, Bjorn Borg was regularly taken to five sets in early rounds of Wimbledon, by very low-seeded players, but would raise his game in each round (including the final) by just enough to win the championship. He won five Wimbledon titles, of course.


In rugby, single score wins are often about mental strength. The dying minutes of a close game can often be about which team can maintain their defensive structures, maintain their discipline, and find a way to get that crucial maul try, penalty, dropped goal, or line break. Some teams rise to that challenge better than others. In fact some teams consistently keep the scores close until the last 20 minutes, and then raise their games to win the arm wrestle by a few points.


The other observation about luck is that fans tend to ignore probability distributions when considering an incident. For example, a "lucky bounce" can result in a winger collecting a ball and scoring in the last minute of the game. The opposing fans will double click on the win being lucky, but a statistician might consider how many times that team had a bad bounce during the game. There may have been five or ten times during that game when a better bounce would have resulted in a try. In that context the story is not about the "lucky bounce", but about what would have happened if they had not been so unfortunate with so many "unlucky bounces".

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