Hickey lights it up for Bordeaux Begles

But there is obviously still risk there, I’m just referring to repetitive hyperbole of the world falling apart when all the news was about NZR not going to have a sponsor and Sky no longer valuing rugby as a broadcast option.

I suspect the author has it completely wrong as it pertains to the pool as well, because I can’t see the contracts of players changing year to year like revenue does.

I’d imagine there is an agreed principle to a ‘forecast’ figure of revenue for a cyclical period, and this is what 37% or whatever of is used for player salaries. So it would not change whatever that figure is until the next cycle. Cash flow, as you said, would be the main factor, but as they aren’t paid all it once, they’d not be hindered in this manor I don’t believe. Of all the references I’ve seen of a the player pool agreement, not once have I seen any detail on how the amount is determined.

But yes, that would be a very reasoned look at the consequences, especially compared those I’ve seen in articles on this site. Even with turnonver north of $350 million a year, 20 is still a sizeable chunk. Like this RA’s broadcast deal, they might have smaller sponsorship for a short period to align with everything else, then look to develop the deal further heading into the Lions tour cycle? Perhaps trying to take a deal from low to high like that is unlikely to a long term investor, and NZR want to get a good shortterm deal now so they can capitalize on growth for the Lions (i’m assuming that series has consequences on more than just broadcast deals right).

My sole purpose here was to try explore quantitatively a ‘qualitative’ impression (that the season is exciting).

On Graham’s point about extreme results skewing the results, and Ed’s comment on removing outliers, this is precisely why I report the median values as well as the averages. The median is not skewed by outliers. If the margins of 5 games are 3, 4, 5, 8 and 10 points, the median margin is 5. If there was one blowout and the margins were 3, 4, 5, 8 and 57 points, the median margin is still 5.

There are many factors that could each partly explain what we are seeing this season in SRP (redistribution of talent, sped-up games, etc.). It makes it difficult to ensure that it stays like this, but I agree it would be nice if it could.

The analysis is not based on 7 games. It is based on 7 rounds (34 games). For a 16-round competition, it is not a small sample.

And for previous seasons, it is including all regular-season games.