Northern Edition

Select Edition

Northern Northern
Southern Southern
Global Global
New Zealand New Zealand
France France

Historic defeat not out of the question for All Blacks as blue wave looms large

Sam Whitelock. (Photo by INPHO/Dave Winter)

The All Blacks hold the honour of being the sole side to have never suffered defeat during the pool stages of a Rugby World Cup but if events from the past six months are anything to go by, that could change.

ADVERTISEMENT

Throughout the nine iterations of the global competition, only once has New Zealand not progressed through to the semi-finals – and that’s thanks to France’s shock victory in Cardiff in 2007. While the likes of England, South Africa and Australia have always competed well at the World Cup, sharing six titles between them, they’ve all been handed defeats during the group stages of the tournament – and England even suffered the ignominy of missing out on the sudden-death matches at their home tournament in 2015 after slipping up against both Australia and Wales.

Such an event is unlikely to unfold for New Zealand at next year’s World Cup in France, of course. The All Blacks boast an impeccable record against teams outside the traditional rugby superpowers and of the nations that were seeded into the third band for the 2023 tournament (i.e. the sides that finished third in their pools at the last competition) – Scotland, Argentina, Fiji and Italy – NZ have tasted defeat on just one occasion. As it so happens, NZ again share a pool with the Azzurri (for the seventh time), who have never really come close to tipping over the men in black.

Video Spacer

How Super Rugby Aupiki can change rugby in New Zealand for the better.

Video Spacer

How Super Rugby Aupiki can change rugby in New Zealand for the better.

But while missing out on the quarter-finals is all but out of the question for the All Blacks, there are no guarantees that they’ll escape unbeaten from the pool stages for the 10th time in succession and that’s thanks to the incredible form shown by France coupled with some middling performances from NZ.

France have long been earmarked as an up-and-coming team thanks to their run of successes at the Under 20s World Championship. The Baby Blues finished fourth at the 2017 tournament before taking out the top prize in the two years following.

The top players from those campaigns – the likes of Jean-Baptiste Gros, Demba Bamba, Cameron Woki, Romain Ntamack – are now mainstays in the national squad, linking up with other former age-grade stars such as Julien Marchand, Romain Taofifenua and Antoine Dupont and while it hasn’t all been smooth sailing over the past two-and-a-half years, it’s not been hard to see that Fabien Galthie has been growing something special in La Republique.

While exceptional wins haven’t been hard to come by for Galthie’s men, there have also been some unexpected losses and despite often looking the best team in the various competitions they’ve competed in since the 2019 World Cup, France hadn’t managed to claim any silverware – until now.

ADVERTISEMENT

A Grand Slam was a fitting reward for a French team that always looked a touch above their opposition throughout this year’s Six Nations championship. While Les Bleus weren’t always exceptional, they did everything needed to get wins on the board and thanks to their victory over the All Blacks in November, they’ve now bested seven of the nine top rugby-playing nations in the world over the past six months – and it would take a brave man to bet against them securing a clean sweep by the end of the year, with matches scheduled against both Australia and South Africa in November.

Which brings us to 2023 – and a home World Cup no doubt played in front of tens of thousands of raucous French fans.

18 months is admittedly a long period of time and a lot could happen between now and September 8, when France and NZ are set to square off in Saint-Dennis. The Springboks were languishing in the doldrums a year-and-a-half out from the last tournament but Rassie Erasmus managed to transform them from also-rans to world champions while their grand final opposition, England, had finished fifth in the prior year’s Six Nations. On the flip side, Wales, Ireland and Scotland – the top three sides in the 2018 Six nations – failed to impress at the 2019 World Cup with Wales lucky to make it past the quarter-finals, Ireland suffering a hefty defeat at that same stage of the tournament by the All Blacks, and Scotland failing to make it out of their pool (with the latter two sides both going down to Japan during their group encounters).

Related

As such, France could capitulate between now and 2023 tournament while the All Blacks could reverse the sliding form from last year that saw them go down to South Africa, Ireland and France in the latter half of the year.

ADVERTISEMENT

The smart money, however, would be on France continuing to grow into a world-class superpower while it’s difficult to see NZ achieving a complete 180 over the next 18 months, unless there are some big changes in personnel.

The All Blacks will always boast an aura of success thanks to their decades of accomplishments and the mana that surrounds the team but despite what many’s hearts may say, the head should be picking that France will go into the next World Cup as favourites – and that means they’ll likely boast the shorter odds in the opening game of the competition when they do face off with New Zealand.

It was France who handed the All Blacks their first-ever loss at the quarter-final stages of the 2007 Rugby World Cup and it could be Les Bleus who again hand New Zealand an historic defeat in 2023.

ADVERTISEMENT

LIVE

{{item.title}}

Trending on RugbyPass

Comments

3 Comments
J
Jmann 1005 days ago

France will choke

Load More Comments

Join free and tell us what you really think!

Sign up for free
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest Features

Comments on RugbyPass

J
JW 43 minutes ago
Does South Africa have a future in European competition?

I rated Lowe well enough to be an AB. Remember we were picking the likes of George Bridge above such players so theres no disputing a lot of bad decisions have been made by those last two coaches. Does a team like the ABs need a finicky winger who you have to adapt and change a lot of your style with to get benefit from? No, not really. But he still would have been a basic improvement on players like even Savea at the tail of his career, Bridge, and could even have converted into the answer of replacing Beauden at the back. Instead we persisted with NMS, Naholo, Havili, Reece, all players we would have cared even less about losing and all because Rieko had Lowe's number 11 jersey nailed down.


He was of course only 23 when he decided to leave, it was back in the beggining of the period they had started retaining players (from 2018 onwards I think, they came out saying theyre going to be more aggressive at some point). So he might, all of them, only just missed out.


The main point that Ed made is that situations like Lowe's, Aki's, JGP's, aren't going to happen in future. That's a bit of a "NZ" only problem, because those players need to reach such a high standard to be chosen by the All Blacks, were as a country like Ireland wants them a lot earlier like that. This is basically the 'ready in 3 years' concept Ireland relied on, versus the '5 years and they've left' concept' were that player is now ready to be chosen by the All Blacks (given a contract to play Super, ala SBW, and hopefully Manu).


The 'mercenary' thing that will take longer to expire, and which I was referring to, is the grandparents rule. The new kids coming through now aren't going to have as many gp born overseas, so the amount of players that can leave with a prospect of International rugby offer are going to drop dramatically at some point. All these kiwi fellas playing for a PI, is going to stop sadly.


The new era problem that will replace those old concerns is now French and Japanese clubs (doing the same as NRL teams have done for decades by) picking kids out of school. The problem here is not so much a national identity one, than it is a farm system where 9 in 10 players are left with nothing. A stunted education and no support in a foreign country (well they'll get kicked out of those countries were they don't in Australia).


It's the same sort of situation were NZ would be the big guy, but there weren't many downsides with it. The only one I can think was brought up but a poster on this site, I can't recall who it was, but he seemed to know a lot of kids coming from the Islands weren't really given the capability to fly back home during school xms holidays etc. That is probably something that should be fixed by the union. Otherwise getting someone like Fakatava over here for his last year of school definitely results in NZ being able to pick the cherries off the top but it also allows that player to develop and be able to represent Tonga and under age and possibly even later in his career. Where as a kid being taken from NZ is arguably going to be worse off in every respect other than perhaps money. Not going to develop as a person, not going to develop as a player as much, so I have a lotof sympathy for NZs case that I don't include them in that group but I certainly see where you're coming from and it encourages other countries to think they can do the same while not realising they're making a much worse experience/situation.

144 Go to comments
TRENDING
TRENDING Fissler Confidential: One England international in, one out for Bath Fissler Confidential: One England international in, one out for Bath
Search