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How All Blacks can still lose the Tri Nations ahead of Wallabies and Los Pumas showdown

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The All Blacks have effectively clinched the Tri Nations title thanks to their bonus-point victory over Argentina at Newcastle on Saturday night – barring a miracle in the final game of the tournament between the Pumas and the Wallabies.

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Ian Foster’s men, under intense pressure after two successive defeats, got revenge against the Pumas with a dominant 38-0 win in their final test of the year.

It leaves the All Blacks five points clear at the top of Tri Nations ladder, with two wins and two losses, leaving Argentina and Australia with monumental task if they are to claim the trophy.

Video Spacer

Sam Cane and Ian Foster react to All Blacks victory over Los Pumas

Video Spacer

Sam Cane and Ian Foster react to All Blacks victory over Los Pumas

However, there is still technically a mathematical chance, albeit a highly unlikely one, that both Argentina and Australia could still win the Tri Nations from New Zealand.

The All Blacks’ vastly superior points differential – thanks to two thrashings in their only two wins of the competition – along with three crucial bonus points, means they’re sitting pretty at the top of the table with 11 points and a massive point differential of 64.

Both Argentina and Australia are on six competition points in the ladder with negative point differentials.

Under the competition rules outlined by Tri Nations organisers SANZAAR, the first tiebreaker if two or more teams finish on equal competition points is determined by the team with the most wins in the series.

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If the first tiebreaker doesn’t provide a clear winner, the table is determined by the team with the most wins against the other team/s tied on the same points.

The third tiebreaker, and the one that will ultimately matter at the end of this year’s competition, is points differential.

Both Argentina and Australia have only one loss so far, but haven’t scored any bonus points in each of their first three games.

So even a bonus-point victory for either team in the final match of the competition may not be enough for both Argentina and Australia.

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In fact, Argentina will require a 93-point margin of victory over the Wallabies, while Australia will need a 101-point margin of victory, meaning the All Blacks have all but secured the second trophy of the Foster era.

The Pumas take on the Wallabies on Saturday at 9.45pm.

The All Blacks’ first two Bledisloe Cup tests of the year against the Wallabies – a draw in Wellington and a win in Auckland – were not part of the Tri Nations and have no bearing in the standings.

Tri Nations standings

1. All Blacks – 11 pts (2 wins, 2 losses, +64 points difference)

2. Los Pumas – 6 pts (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, -28 points difference)

3. Wallabies – 6 pts (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, -36 points difference)

Biggest defeats in rugby history

Argentina or Australia will require a historic win to steal the Tri Nations from the All Blacks.

Here are ten of the biggest defeats in rugby history:

Namibia – 142 points (142-0 to Australia, 2003 Australia World Cup)

Romania – 134 points (134-0 to England, Romanian 2001 End of Year Tour)

Uruguay – 131 points (134-3 to South Africa, Uruguayan 2005 Summer Tour)

Japan – 128 points (145-17 to New Zealand, 1995 South Africa World Cup)

Tonga – 102 points (102-0 to New Zealand in Tongan 2000 Summer Tour)

Italy – 101 points (101-0 to South Africa, Italian 1999 Summer Tour)

USA – 98 points (106-8 to England, American 1999 End of Year Tour)

Portugal – 95 points (108-13 to New Zealand, 2007 French World Cup)

Fiji – 91 points (91-0 to New Zealand, Fijian 2005 Summer Tour)

Samoa – 87 points (101-14 to New Zealand, Samoan 2008 Summer Tour)

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Tom 4 hours ago
Will Bristol's daredevil 'Bears-ball' deliver the trophy they crave?

Also a Bristol fan and echo your sentiments.


I love watching Bristol but their approach will only get them so far I think. Exeter played like this when they first got promoted to the prem and had intermittent success, it wasn't until they wised up and played a more balanced game that they became a consistently top side.


I really want Bristol to continue playing this brand of rugby and I don't mind them running it from under their posts but I don't think they need to do it every single time. They need to be just a little bit more selective about when and where on the pitch they play. Every game they put themselves under so much needless pressure by turning the ball over under their posts trying to do kamikaze moves when it's not required. By all means run it from your goal line if there is a chance for a counter attack, we all want to see Bristol running in 100m tries from under their posts but I think until they learn when to do it and when to be pragmatic, they are unlikely to win the premiership.


Defense has been a real positive from Bristol, they've shown a lot of improvement there... And I will say that I think this kamikaze strategy they employ is a very good one for a struggling side and could be employed by Newcastle. It's seems to have turned around Gloucester's fortunes. The big advantage is even if you don't have the biggest and best players, what you have is cohesion. This is why Scotland keep battering England. England have better individuals but they look muddled as a team, trying to play a mixed strategy under coaches who lack charisma, the team has no identity. Scotland come out and give it full throttle from 1-15 even if they struggle against the top sides, sides like England and Wales who lack that identity drown under the relentless will and synergy of the Scots. If Newcastle did the same they could really surprise some people, I know the weather is bad up there but it hasn't bothered the Scots. Bristol can learn from Scotland too, Pat is on to something when he says the following but Scotland don't play test matches like headless chickens. They still play with the same level of clarity and ambition Bristol do but they are much better at picking their moments. They needed to go back to this mad game to get their cohesion back after a couple of seasons struggling but I hope they get a bit wiser from matches like Leinster and La Rochelle.


“If there’s clarity on what you’re trying to do as a team you can win anything.”

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