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How each team can still win The Rugby Championship over final two rounds

(Photo by Dan Peled / www.photosport.nz)

The closest Rugby Championship in history is entering its final stages and every team is still in the running to take home the title with two rounds remaining.

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All four teams have two games in the win column and two in the loss, but New Zealand hold the lead on the table due to their two bonus points, with their rivals having only one a piece.

Breaking the second place tie-breaker between South Africa, Australia and Argentina is where things get a little complicated.

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The Rugby Championship employs an out of the ordinary rule that makes point differential secondary to a team’s record against their tie-breaking counterparts.

Given the current three way tie-breaker, Australia sit in second place due to them having amassed two wins against South Africa and Argentina, while the Springboks and Pumas have only managed one win against the tie-breaking teams.

It’s a rule that makes more sense when the competition is completed and each team has had the opportunity to win as many games against all opposition as each other.

Having established Australia in second place, the tie-breaker between South Africa and Argentina is then decided by overall points differential.

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Argentina’s 50 point loss on the weekend has resulted in them falling from first place the week before to the very bottom of the table.

So, for the hypotheticals:

This table outlines all the possible points outcomes remaining for each team:

New Zealand can secure their 19th Rugby Championship title if they win both games against Australia, with both of those wins coming with a bonus point. If they do not secure the bonus points, they open the door to the tie-breaker scenarios outlined earlier.

No bonus points for the All Blacks would only be an issue if either South Africa or Argentina came away with two wins in their series with at least one of those wins being with a bonus point.

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A tie-breaker between New Zealand and Argentina would see the Kiwis retain the Rugby Championship crown, due to their superior points differential against the Pumas.

However, a tie-breaker between the All Blacks and Springboks would hand South Africa the title, as the Springboks outscored New Zealand by four points over their two game series.

A Wallaby win would open the door to a number of further possibilities, each as likely as the next given the unpredictable nature of this year’s tournament.

So far, each series has seen one country host both tests, but with an uneven number of series to be played, in order to level out the home field advantage, each nation will host one home game over these final two rounds.

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Comments

2 Comments
c
christopher 910 days ago

As NZ are on 10 points this article is superfluous. Rewrite please.

J
JJ 910 days ago

NZ are on 10 points (2 wins + 2 bonus points) and not 11 as mentioned above

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R
RedWarriors 1 hour ago
France change two for Ireland but stick with 7-1 bench tactic

Again we beat SA in Durban with an injury ravaged team. Guys like you have been predicting Irelands downfall for years for the same reasons.


Re the draw: NZ and SA were making plenty of noise about the draw until they squeeked through. SA and NZ don’t ‘rise above’ the draw. They BENEFIT from it!!


Should Scotland #5 seed globally but drawn in a Pool with Ireland and South Africa just have ‘risen above it’? Wow, if only your advice had occurred to them.

Should Japan in 2015 have ‘risen above it’ and beaten Scotland when forced to play them 4 days after beating South Africa?


That old chesnut about Ireland playing too many players in 2023. Ireland showed no fatigue in the RWC. We played the backline a lot early for coordination as Sexton back from ban. For professional sports people, you need to look at extreme fatigue to failure at the end of full intensity matches. They are the pertinent minutes. A backline running shapes for 60 mins against Romania is not a recovery issue. Amateur statisticians adding up minutes and jumping to silly conclusions means little.


I saw South Africa struggle badly with fatigue after the Quarter Final. Against Engalnd, in the final, you needed luck. You didn’t rise above it: you got poxed.


(BTW son. YOU haven’t won a World Cup

Also to note: you are jsut adding to the reputation of SA as having the most thin skinned supporters on the planet. A comment about Ireland dominating SA physcially and you can’t accept it. SA are never domianted! (even when they are))

40 Go to comments
P
PR 2 hours ago
France change two for Ireland but stick with 7-1 bench tactic

Oh here we go again - the draw. If Ireland were that good they would rise above the draw. South Africa did. New Zealand did. Ireland, not so much. You seem to think that it matters what happens in the group stages of the WC. The ONLY thing that matters at World Cups is who lifts the cup in the end. That’s it. Do you take any pride in Ireland being ‘the best’ in your group at the World Cup? Does it make up for the hurt of crashing out in the quarters? Do you think it means anything to the All Blacks that they beat the Boks in the pool game in 2019? Of course not. You only care about those things when, like Ireland, you don’t progress past the knock out stages and are looking for silver linings.


Leinster beating an injury-ravaged Stormers means nothing. For starters the best player in the Leinster team was RG Snyman. Also a young Leinster team lost 62-7 to the Bulls a couple of years ago. You don’t know how good youngsters are until they play Test rugby. And that’s the concern for Ireland. They have blooded some youngsters but by-and-large they need to play their best team to get results. We saw it at the World Cup when the game minutes of Ireland players were off the scale.


Meanwhile the Boks had a 85% win record last year chopping and changing using 50 players. This year the wider Bok squad stands at 80. And Rassie will keep experimenting.


As for the Six Nations - I love it. Great comp (even though it only delivered one team in the last four at the last WC). I love the rivalry and the rich history, although winning it is no way near comparable to winning a World Cup. Maybe you need to have won one to understand.

40 Go to comments
B
Bull Shark 3 hours ago
The revitalised Australians are pushing a Super Rugby revival

I am Delisha, I find my marital affairs in a fluid situation; my husband left me with 2kids I felt like ending it all. I was emotionally down. But all thanks go to Dr herbal. I came across several testimonies about Dr Herbal on guestbook as i was

Where’s Delisha gone?


I think it’s unfair and appalling that the moderators silence Delisha about her “fluid marital situation”!


Fascist censors!


I have decided to come to Rugbypass for all my Herbal and cybersecurity news given the many wonderful posts shared here. And now this!


Delisha, where ever you are, God speed. I hope the fluids in your marriage remain strictly between you and your husband.

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