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How Los Pumas Could Perhaps, Maybe, Beat The All Blacks This Weekend

All Blacks vs Argentina

The Pumas are looking to chalk up their first victory over the All Blacks at Waikato Stadium this weekend. Scotty Stevenson says the Argentinians need to disrupt the Kiwi side’s lineout dominance to have any hope of success.

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The Pumas roll into Hamilton this week to face an All Blacks side that has mastered the percentages. If the Argentineans have any chance of victory, they must improve their set piece – and do more with what they have.

While the rest of the rugby world still rages like a rat in a cage over the non-citing of Owen Franks and the perceived special treatment of the All Blacks in rugby’s judicial process, the All Blacks themselves will line up at Waikato Stadium confident that all the wailing and gnashing of teeth has done little more than obscure the obvious: they simply have the jump over other teams at lineout time – if you’ll excuse the pun.

The lineout has become the biggest weapon in the All Blacks arsenal. The team won 79 of its 84 throws during the 2015 Rugby World Cup, and stole a tournament high 15 throws to boot. They have rolled into the new international season with the rest of the field grasping at air.

The lineout is fundamentally a better attacking option than the scrum. For starters, all players are on their feet, as opposed to having their heads buried between the legs of their team mates. Attacking and defensive lines are farther apart, variation in lineout plays allow for more options in terms of drive, pass, kick or run, and there is unarguably a greater chance of contested possession, as the All Blacks have demonstrated over recent seasons.

 
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The statistics back this up. Of the 20 tries scored so far in the Rugby Championship, eight have come directly from lineout (compared to just two from scrum). The All Blacks have scored four tries from lineouts and a further try from a lineout steal – far and away the most of any of the four sides. Australia and South Africa have scored just one apiece from lineouts, with the latter also scoring one from a steal.

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Argentina, to get to the original point, have yet to score one from either their own throw or the opposition’s. And that is a problem for the big Pumas pack. For all their industry, they can’t convert. Argentina have won an average of 11 lineouts per match (the same number as the All Blacks, and a tournament high), with just one lineout concession per match and yet, nada.

The creation of opportunities is seemingly not the problem for the Argentinians: the taking of them is. If the lineout statistics are cause for concern in the Pumas camp, their use of turnover ball certainly should be.

Again this is where the All Blacks manage to do more than the Argentinians, despite the fact they win fewer turnovers per game. In fact, the All Blacks have won fewer turnovers (6.5 per game) than any other team in the first two rounds of the Rugby Championship, while conceding the most (18.5 per game). That would be an alarming for the All Blacks but for the fact they are the ONLY team so far in the tournament to score a try from a turnover. They have scored three.

Compounding the concern for the Argentinians will be the increased defensive workload they will be forced to endure this weekend. They head into the match having been forced to make just 101 t tackles per game against the South Africans, and they missed 20 of those. The All Blacks forced the Australians to make 156 per game, and the Wallabies missed an excruciatingly bad 33 of those. Extrapolating the percentage of tackles made to missed, and on the evidence of the first two games, the Argentinians would not fare much better.

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If there are silver linings in the numbers for Argentina they come in jerseys 8 and 9 where the battles between Facundo Isa and Kieran Read and Martin Landajo and Aaron Smith may go some way to deciding which side can control the tempo of the match. Isa leads all carriers this Rugby Championship and trails only Beauden Barrett in terms of metres run. Landajo for his part must control the exit of the Argentinians, and was in full control against the South Africans in the last test. Harassing Smith at the breakdown must be his defensive focus. Watch the All Blacks force him onto the left foot behind the defensive ruck. A tip: weak foot box kicks are an Argentinean frailty.

Never before have the Pumas defeated the All Blacks, and all expectations are that fruitless search for a win will continue at Waikato Stadium (where the All Blacks have lost just once). The only hope is that the Argentinians have spent the week working on their lineouts, and learning how to make their tackles. If they’ve done that, we may just see a contest.

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Tom 8 hours ago
Will Bristol's daredevil 'Bears-ball' deliver the trophy they crave?

Also a Bristol fan and echo your sentiments.


I love watching Bristol but their approach will only get them so far I think. Exeter played like this when they first got promoted to the prem and had intermittent success, it wasn't until they wised up and played a more balanced game that they became a consistently top side.


I really want Bristol to continue playing this brand of rugby and I don't mind them running it from under their posts but I don't think they need to do it every single time. They need to be just a little bit more selective about when and where on the pitch they play. Every game they put themselves under so much needless pressure by turning the ball over under their posts trying to do kamikaze moves when it's not required. By all means run it from your goal line if there is a chance for a counter attack, we all want to see Bristol running in 100m tries from under their posts but I think until they learn when to do it and when to be pragmatic, they are unlikely to win the premiership.


Defense has been a real positive from Bristol, they've shown a lot of improvement there... And I will say that I think this kamikaze strategy they employ is a very good one for a struggling side and could be employed by Newcastle. It's seems to have turned around Gloucester's fortunes. The big advantage is even if you don't have the biggest and best players, what you have is cohesion. This is why Scotland keep battering England. England have better individuals but they look muddled as a team, trying to play a mixed strategy under coaches who lack charisma, the team has no identity. Scotland come out and give it full throttle from 1-15 even if they struggle against the top sides, sides like England and Wales who lack that identity drown under the relentless will and synergy of the Scots. If Newcastle did the same they could really surprise some people, I know the weather is bad up there but it hasn't bothered the Scots. Bristol can learn from Scotland too, Pat is on to something when he says the following but Scotland don't play test matches like headless chickens. They still play with the same level of clarity and ambition Bristol do but they are much better at picking their moments. They needed to go back to this mad game to get their cohesion back after a couple of seasons struggling but I hope they get a bit wiser from matches like Leinster and La Rochelle.


“If there’s clarity on what you’re trying to do as a team you can win anything.”

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