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Injuries, not innovation, are driving change in Scott Robertson’s All Blacks
I couldn’t be happier about Peter Lakai’s elevation to the All Blacks.
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The Hurricanes and Wellington loose forward is talented, versatile and capable of adding real value to the national team in the years to come.
But my greatest satisfaction at his selection is derived from what it’s potentially going to force All Blacks coach Scott Robertson into.
Certainly one, maybe two, All Blacks have enhanced their reputation so far this season.
One was the beneficiary of others’ misfortune and the other given greater game time and responsibility due to retirements.
Had Ethan Blackadder been fit, we wouldn’t have seen much of Wallace Sititi in an All Blacks jumper. Maybe a few minutes off the bench, that would’ve been about it.
Now, I assume we’d all agree Sititi has the potential to become a star, at either blindside flanker or No.8.
Equally, Tupou Vaa’i was largely a peripheral figure of previous All Blacks squads. But, thanks to the retirements of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, along with injury to Patrick Tuipulotu, Vaa’i has established himself as a mainstay of the starting XV.
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Rightly or wrongly, many of us presumed Robertson would be an agent of change, as head coach.
That old methods and players would be discarded and a kind of magical mystery tour would ensue as Robertson, a bit like the fictional character Willy Wonka, took us on a journey through his rugby mind.
In truth, we’ve had no such adventure.
Robertson has stuck steadfastly to established players, from whom he’s extracted mixed results.
It took, particularly in Sititi’s case, injury to one of Robertson’s favoured players in order for something different to occur.
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I look at the All Blacks and see a pretty tired product. I see no vigour, no innovation. Plenty of guys who’ve been tried, and often failed, on the international stage, but nothing that suggests a concerted plan to achieve 2027 Rugby World Cup success is in place.
This team needs to be regenerated but, on the evidence of the first few months, it appears as if only injury will provide the impetus for change.
With Blackadder, Luke Jacobson and Dalton Papali’i not fit enough to be considered for selection against Japan next week, Robertson has been obliged to think outside the box.
Sure, he’s still carrying Sam Cane and TJ Perenara around for reasons that make no sense, but at least Lakai is getting some kind of look in.
In a broader sense, that’s what I want to see from this end-of-year tour. I want to see guys who haven’t been regulars in the matchday 23 actually start important tests and for us all to see if there are other options the selectors could explore.
I don’t see the point in ever selecting Sevu Reece, quite frankly. Just as I think we’ve seen all that Rieko Ioane, Anton Lienert-Brown, Jordie Barrett and Damian McKenzie have to offer this team.
I struggle to see what’s gained from playing people like Ardie Savea, Scott Barrett and Codie Taylor in these upcoming test matches which – at the end of the day – don’t actually count for anything.
The All Blacks, as they’re constructed now, aren’t good enough to win the next World Cup. They need new players and new ideas.
If Robertson does have a unique take on rugby, then I’m baffled as to why we haven’t seen it yet. His selections have been conservative in the extreme, almost as if he’s frightened to upset some of the more seasoned players.
Well, guys such as Sititi and Vaa’i have shown that there is something to be gained and things to be learned by selecting players who might not have been your first choice.
The team has arguably improved in the process.
There are guys in the squad who are incumbents for a reason and who will still play an integral part in the next World Cup campaign.
In the meantime, though, Robertson should look at the next couple of years as an opportunity to find out exactly how good the likes of Lakai are.
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He goes through this tour unbeaten then the Abs are back on track,I agree with most comments here but things can change quickly in sport. This year was always going to be tough, the love affair for sam cane is baffling,but as long as he doesn't play him much then his "experience" might be useful for the newbies on tour.
Agree with you Bidwell. The revolution has been delayed and fear continues to drive selections. Known quantities are persisted with and no innovation has materialized. As with Foster, change only comes when forced. A pity for NZ - and global - rugby.
Razor knows what he's doing...but is what he's doing the right thing? Every coach knows what they're doing but not every coach does the right thing and that's the difference between good coaches and great coaches. Saffa with a black passport here...I am totally happy when the Boks play the AB's with their current team. I am terrified of the day that we have to play the AB's with their young-bloods (Ratima, Roigard, Sititi, Vaa'i etc all in the same team). Sadly, the AB's unique issue is the vitriol from the public when losing games. I can only compare this to Rassie who has the trust of the public so losing games almost seems part of the bigger plan. Whether it is or isn't part of the plan, it doesn't matter because perception becomes reality.
Boy, do I hate loving the AB young-bloods!
Fans love to talk exclusively about selections. Top coaches also talk about selections but things like culture, structures, game management, discipline and on-field leadership are as important for them. They also care about indirect things like pathways for young players, workload management and programs to develop specific skills.
So maybe Razor wants to win games, but also wants to put in place some of the foundations that he thinks will position NZ for long term success. And maybe he feels that he needs some of the experienced test (and Crusaders) players to help put in place those foundations.
I think NZ fans would prefer a bad season or two, followed by some years of excellence, vs an ongoing competitive record that never rises to #1. For me the question is not whether or not his selections are achieving the goal of winning games in 2024, but whether those selections are achieving the goal of rebuilding the fundamentals of the team in a forward-looking fashion.
And quite honestly I do think that is taking place. I think he is establishing who they want to be and how they want to play, and will bring in new blood in due course. If that's right then 2025 season will see him start building test caps for his 2027 RWC squad, and 2026 will see him delivering a baseline for NZ excellence, while keeping some RWC surprises off the tape.
If that is approximately right then getting upset about his selections in 2024 may be to miss the point.
Foster's tenure should have been a warning to future coaches, not a template.
So far Razor has made all the same mistakes Foster did in his first year, and unsurprisingly had the same results. (or worse)
Unlike Foster, Razor has earned the benefit of the doubt due to his success with Crusaders, but that won't actually help him on this tour.
Losing three matches in a row will be painful, but it will hopefully jolt some life into this management team to make the necessary changes.
Razor himself said he opted to take both Cane and Perenara as they have proved excellent mentors to both their young and inexperienced successors, and the team as a whole. He also said they provide much needed experience in the event of an injury crisis (which they are experiencing now with the loosies). Really struggling to understand how such a critical position "makes no sense".
Any loss for the All Blacks is considered unacceptable, there are no games that "don't actually count for anything".
Once again, the NZ public hold the ABs to high standards. Giving more inexperienced players a crack could've resulted in even more losses. It's not hard to see why Razor isn't throwing caution to the wind in his first year. Not only that, his whole coaching team had zero international experience at the start of the year. He's still getting his feet wet.
Your logic might make sense if Robertson was delivering results against top teams. These are only mediocre. Risk vs rewards has been absent as defined by those results so Bidwell makes valid points. Why persist with caution and known limited players when the opportunity exists to re-launch with new players and strategies?
Would playing a few more inexperienced players really have resulted in more losses? Sititi, Ratima, Roigard (last year), Tamati; just to name a few, have improved the team massively.
If we'd won the large majority of our games this year, your argument would be fine. But as the win ratio is pretty poor, it shows many of the old guard are not delivering on their supposed value of experience.
To the contrary, a number of the senior players losing their heads and making poor decisions under pressure.
It's puzzling that Lakai was omitted in the first place, surely if Cane is such a valuable mentor as we're all told, getting Lakai on tour with him would be fundamental.
I suggest the lacklustre results indicate a more aggressive approach to renewal is required. I see no evidence of a detriment to performance from including young players, quite the opposite in fact.
I often disagree with Bidwell's perspective, but I think he's spot on here. Razor's short-sighted approach has denied some of our most talented young players the opportunity to gain valuable experience in challenging NH environments. Instead, we’re left watching aging senior players and others who seem to be there solely because of their Crusaders background, despite their poor performance in Super Rugby. The All Blacks need a major overhaul, both on the field and mindset shift in the coaching booth.
The current setup feels more like conservative amateurism than the cutting-edge professionalism we should AB fans expect.
Is the ABXV their answer to giving younger players a chance?
I agree. Missed opportunities to select youngsters to go to 2027 and even 2031.
I don’t think AB fans would have minded seeing bold selections and maybe more losses. And now you have lost a year of 12/14 tests to rebuild.
Which brings me to Australia. Taking the hidings now will make them stronger over time.
Well described.
Conservative amateurism, rather than cutting-edge professionalism.
He was innovative at the Crusaders i don't get why he has been so conservative with this team.
Possibly, he is fearful of failure in his first year in charge, and the wrath of the nz public.
If he has a successful northern tour he will off and away, if he has a failed tour he will have a difficult summer break.
It has been a very damp squid selection to date. Dalton's demotion particularly crazy with losses one after the other with Cane at seven. Probably an outcome of Cane having captained and been in those meetings with Ryan for so long causing trust and binding that obscured Canes woeful on field output.
The evidence for that was Razors waxing lyrical about just how much Cane brings off the field...anny serious NFL team would've cut him from the team for his onfield woes several seasons ago.
The biggest pain with Foster was a distinct lack of jersey rivalry, Razors continued that lack of fighting for the jersey with continually selecting the guys already proven to be too small and ineffective like Reece and Havili.
I get it they're players with high skill and industrious work rates against the Wallaby world number tens but we aren't going to see the Wallabies make it to the semis in 2027
Dalton Papalii has played poorly. He has provided zero as a ball carrier in any of his tests. Good defence and no offence.
Agreed. Razor's provincial bias is obvious to everyone. Any Division 1 college or NFL coach would have dropped 10 or more players from Razor's squad based on poor performance alone.
However, I disagree with your take on Reece. His size actually makes him even more dangerous, given how elusive he is. I’d take Reece over Kolbe any day.
What's with the hate for Sevu Reece?
He's just not that effective against the other top 3 or 4 teams in the World. He's fine against Australia, but unfortunately just too small.
A little guy without extreme pace. Good workrate but just a good little guy
I wish Hamish would get injured and drive change as to who writes these articles that are so shyte ful its crazy.
Thanks Hamish I am sure that Razor would value, very much, your amazing insight that he should prepare the team for the Rwc 2027. I am sure he did not realize that until you brought it up.
It's like they think Razor doesn't know what he's doing😂
Hes just taking things slow and building his team, which is in a much rougher shape than when Foster took over.
I have to say I am pretty pleased with how this team is developing, and it will be interesting to see who gets dropped next year once we found out who the good and bad eggs are.