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Ireland's No.1 ranking under serious threat this weekend

Ireland's players pose for a group photo at the end of a welcoming ceremony at the Grand Theatre in Tours, on September 2, 2023, ahead of the Rugby World Cup 2023 in France. (Photo by GUILLAUME SOUVANT / AFP/GUILLAUME SOUVANT / AFP) (Photo by GUILLAUME SOUVANT/AFP/GUILLAUME SOUVANT/AFP via Getty Images)

Ireland’s 14-month reign as the No.1 side in the World Rugby ranking is in imminent danger this weekend as the opening matches of the Rugby World Cup get underway in France.

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Ireland enters their second consecutive tournament as the top-ranked team in the world. However, this coveted status hangs in the balance, with as many as three different teams eyeing the opportunity to dethrone them from the number one spot.

And with double-ranking points on offer during the Rugby World Cup, there is bound to be massive movement over the coming weeks in what is an already super tight table.

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Andy Farrell’s Irish squad currently holds a slim 0.74-point lead over the reigning world champions, South Africa. Nevertheless, their position is precarious, as they won’t be able to enhance their ranking with a victory over the much lower-ranked Romania.

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The real threat comes from results in New Zealand and South Africa’s first Rugby World Cup matches, with Ireland hoping Scotland and France can do them a favour in their respective games against the southern hemisphere heavyweights.

South Africa stands to gain a maximum of 0.88 points if they beat Scotland by more than 15 points. Such an outcome would catapult them to the top of the rankings, unless New Zealand manages to secure a similar victory against France in the tournament’s opening match on Friday.

Rugby World Cup

Pool A
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
France
0
0
0
0
0
2
Italy
0
0
0
0
0
3
Namibia
0
0
0
0
0
4
New Zealand
0
0
0
0
0
5
Uruguay
0
0
0
0
0
Pool B
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Ireland
0
0
0
0
0
2
Romania
0
0
0
0
0
3
Scotland
0
0
0
0
0
4
South Africa
0
0
0
0
0
5
Tonga
0
0
0
0
0
Pool C
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Australia
0
0
0
0
0
2
Fiji
0
0
0
0
0
3
Georgia
0
0
0
0
0
4
Portugal
0
0
0
0
0
5
Wales
0
0
0
0
0
Pool D
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Argentina
0
0
0
0
0
2
Chile
0
0
0
0
0
3
England
0
0
0
0
0
4
Japan
0
0
0
0
0
5
Samoa
0
0
0
0
0
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In this scenario, the All Blacks would leap from fourth to first place with a rating of 93.01 points. It’s noteworthy that New Zealand hasn’t held the top ranking since November 2021.

To reclaim the top spot, host nation France must defeat New Zealand and hope that both Ireland and South Africa fail to win their respective Pool B matches against Romania and Scotland.

For Les Bleus, this ambition can only be achieved if neither Ireland nor South Africa emerges victorious in their contests.

Scotland, on the other hand, has a chance to rise to second place by beating the Springboks by more than 15 points, coupled with an Irish loss and a draw in the match between France and New Zealand.

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For Fiji, a win over Wales could potentially elevate them to sixth place if England and Argentina draw. Alternatively, a big victory for Fiji and a smaller win for England over Argentina could also secure sixth place for the Fijians.

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Australia and England also have the opportunity to move up three places in the rankings with wins, contingent on favorable scorelines and other match outcomes.

Georgia eyes a historic place in the top 10 if they can defeat Australia in their RWC 2023 opener. Conversely, Australia, currently at their lowest ranking of ninth, faces the risk of dropping out of the top 10 if they suffer a sixth consecutive defeat.

Wales is also at risk of falling out of the top 10 for the first time with a defeat.

Japan’s rating remains stagnant even with a victory over Rugby World Cup debutants Chile due to a significant point difference between the teams. However, a loss would see them slip below Tonga and possibly Portugal if the margin exceeds 15 points.

Chile could potentially enter the top 20 for the first time depending on the margin of victory and the outcome of Italy’s match against Namibia.

Romania and Namibia, as underdogs, have the potential to improve their positions with surprise victories against Six Nations sides Ireland and Italy.

Namibia’s best-case scenario with a first-ever Rugby World Cup victory is a climb of four places, surpassing their previous best ranking of 19th.

Romania’s return to the Rugby World Cup stage could yield an impressive five-place jump if they manage to cause one of the tournament’s biggest upsets.

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Comments

3 Comments
P
Pecos 594 days ago

Seriously?

J
JoNo 595 days ago

In the world cup rankings mean nothing post and by extension pre, it means something.

C
Ciaran 595 days ago

I have a feeling that no one in the Irish squad is concerned by this.

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Julio Langworth 30 minutes ago
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Flankly 39 minutes ago
How 'misunderstood' Rassie Erasmus is rolling back the clock

Nick - thanks for another good piece.


It’s remarkable that Matt Williams gets so upset about Bomb Squad tactics. He’s not just making recommendations, but getting all sweaty about bench splits. But it’s not really about bench splits. He just does not like forwards, and their role in the game.


I thought this quote was telling:

What about Kitshoff, what happened to his spine in South Africa? Do we know if that is as a result of the scrummaging they are put through?

Ouch. So we are really on a program of reducing scrummaging to reduce spinal injuries? That’s the mission? And based on the statistically significant dataset of one case, a case in which he openly admits that he does not have the details. Regardless, if his goal is to reduce spinal injuries for prop forwards then arguing about bench splits seems like an odd place to start.


It’s not just spinal injuries that he cares about. The risk of paralysis is an important issue, and he raises this too:

I’m a bit of a lone voice but, because of my club-mate Grant Harper (ex-Western Suburbs prop who was paralysed after a collapsed scrum), I’m not shutting up on it.

Injuries are horrible, and paralysis is truly awful. We should absolutely take it very seriously, and diligently implement whatever safety protocols and education programs we can to minimize these things. But we don’t ban skydiving or hang gliding, or crossing the road. Though Williams is not looking to ban rugby, he does seem to be intent on reducing the role of forwards in the game, based on entirely anecdotal data.


It’s hard to tell what it’s all about. He makes this supposed safety case and says that no-one in his echo chamber disagrees with him:

Every time I go out, old forwards and old props go up to me and they say, ‘you’re right’. I’ve never had anyone, apart from a few South Africans – because it’s good for South Africa – say it’s rubbish.

It’s weird that “old props” are hanging around his front door and lobbying him, or maybe he just doesn’t “go out” much. Could it be that all of the hand-wringing about bench splits and scrummaging injuries is really a proxy for something else? Is it possible his issue is not about safety at all?


Well, that is what it seems. For me the truth is in this comment:

Can Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Australia and Argentina compete against South Africa, New Zealand and France if that’s the way the game goes? The answer to that is no.

So, this is the real issue for him. The Bomb Squad tactic is a really good one, and you have to be really good to play against it. Or you should try to de-power it by banning it, wailing about injuries that it supposedly causes (it doesn’t) and clutching at anecdotal straws to make your case.


The above quote is an insult to the five countries named, and it also suggests that no-one is going to be smart enough to come up with a game plan that neutralizes the bomb squad or turns it to a relative weakness. Williams is just a noisy fan looking to change the laws to favor his team and his personal tastes.


I agree with your conclusions. This Rassie approach is far from being unfair to backs. Not only does it favor fleet-footed and versatile “skills players” in the double-digit positions, but each individual gets more game time in any given match.


Whenever I go out I get exactly zero “old backs” coming up to me and complaining about the Bomb Squad tactic.


Bravo, Rassie.

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