Is Ian Foster prepared to make a big call in the front row?

All Blacks head coach Ian Foster will have likely already seen enough throughout the first half of the Super Rugby Pacific season to begin pencilling in his props for the upcoming July series with Ireland.

Showdowns against some of the bigger scrummaging units in Australia – primarily the Reds and the Brumbies – will undoubtedly raise interest from Foster, as well as how teams fare when they’re under pressure in the knockout stages of the competition, but in the opening seven rounds of action, a clear picture has already started to emerge.

Last year, the All Blacks utilised eight different props throughout their 15-game campaign: George Bower, Ethan de Groot, Karl Tu’inukuafe, Joe Moody, Nepo Laulala, Tyrel Lomax, Angus Ta’avao and Ofa Tuungafasi. Chiefs loosehead Aidan Ross was also temporarily called into the squad during July.

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Laulala, with 11 tests, was the clear first-choice on the tighthead side of the scrum while Bower looked after Moody’s No 1 jersey throughout the first half of the season before ceding it upon the 57-test stalwart’s return from injury. No other prop earned more than two starts over the course of the year.

During next year’s Rugby World Cup campaign, Foster will likely select five front-rowers to travel to France, although a sixth is possible, with the size of squads being expanded to 32 players for the 2023 tournament.

Greater dynamism has long been the work-on for New Zealand’s front-rowers – it was likely the major factor behind why the likes of Ta’avao and Atunaisa Moli got the nod ahead of Owen Franks at the 2019 World Cup, despite Franks’ standing as one of the best scrummaging tight-heads in the game at the time.

Undoubtedly, a similar edict will exist next year but the question remains whether Foster will be willing to make a similarly sizeable call ahead of 2023 to the one Hansen made when he omitted Franks.

Laulala, the man who’s started 14 of the All Blacks’ 21 tests since the World Cup, must currently be on thin ice.

‘Dynamic’ is not a word you associate with the 30-year-old front-rower – and for good reason.

Despite being in the upper half for carries made by NZ props in this year’s Super Rugby Pacific season, averaging 3.3 per game, Laulala clocks up less than one post-contact metre per carry, on average, putting him right at the bottom of the pile.

His biggest issue, however, is his defence. Laulala’s 62 per cent tackle completion rate is abysmal whichever way you look at it (most props are in the 80-90 per cent range) – especially when you factor in the risk that Laulala is going to cop a card for a dangerous hit.

Where Laulala undoubtedly excels is at the set-piece – much like his predecessor, Franks – while he’s also in the top 50 per cent of Kiwi props for both rucks hit and first ruck arrivals.

When it comes to work at the breakdown, the two standout performers in NZ are Tyrel Lomax and 2020 All Black Alex Hodgman.

Lomax is the first player to the ruck seven times per game on average – a stat more typical of a loose forward than a front-rower, while Hodgman averages 5.3 first arrivals per match. No other prop has been managing the same feat more than four times per game on average in the current season (with Joe Moody, Jermaine Ainsley, Ollie Norris and Aidan Ross all hitting that mark). In terms of overall offensive rucks hit, Lomax is again head and shoulders ahead of the flock, managing 106 this season (17.7 per game). Irish-born Crusaders prop Oli Jager’s 16.7 rucks per game is not far behind but only on seven occasions has Jager been the first player to a ruck – and therefore the most important player in the breakdown contest.

On the defensive side of the breakdown, Chiefs loosehead Ollie Norris (3.5 attended per game) and Hodgman (3.3) lead the charts in terms of industriousness, while they’re part of a five-strong group who have secured two turnovers each throughout the season.

With the ball in hand, Marcel Renata and Pouri Rakete-Stones are leading the way in terms of post-contact metres gained per carry but neither player is likely on the international radar at present, given they’re neither young up-and-comers or proven options. The group of Angus Ta’avao, Ofa Tuungafasi, Lomax and Norris have all averaged over 2 metres post-contact per carry, however, which represents a commendable effort on their behalves. Those figures can be inflated by one-off breaks, however, whereas it’s Crusader Tamaiti Williams who has been the most consistently destructive with ball-in-hand, making the gain line with 25 per-cent of his carries and almost always winning collisions at the tackle area.

The Crusaders duo of Moody and Jager have been putting in the work on defence, with Jager averaging over 10 tackler per appearance to date, while the Crusaders have also once again proven themselves both the immovable object and the unstoppable force at scrum-time. That being said, the Blues, Chiefs and Highlanders have all all maintained high standards at the set-piece, when they’ve not had to dig deep into their propping stocks due to injuries and illness.

With the All Blacks having around 18 international matches left to play between now and the kick-off of the Rugby World Cup, Foster and his fellow selectors will be acutely aware that there’s very little time left to blood newbies in the test environment. The end of year tour might be too late to introduce youngsters like Fletcher Newell, Tamaiti Williams or Ollie Norris to international rugby – which means we’ll almost certainly see a shake-up of the squad in July.

Laulala might be the shock omission, with the selectors well-aware of his capabilities and content that they can call on in services at any stage between now and the World Cup, know full well what they’ll get from the 30-year-old.

Hodgman, after a disrupted 2021, has shown throughout this year’s campaign with the Blues that he possesses the dynamic abilities the All Blacks are searching for and is certainly worthy of a recall while young Crusaders prop Fletcher Newell may be the one to take Laulala’s spot on the squad.

If Foster selects four other props to join Hodgman and Newell then the experienced Joe Moody will certainly get the nod, as will Ofa Tuungafasi, who can cover both sides of the scrum and is still probably considered a bit of a project player by the wise men. That likely leaves Ethan de Groot and George Bower going toe to toe for one more loosehead berth, and Tyrel Lomax holding off the ever-improving Jermaine Ainsley as the remaining tighthead specialist in the squad.

Possible props for All Blacks July squad: Joe Moody, Alex Hodgman, Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell, Ofa Tuungafasi