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Joe Schmidt and the undefeated Wallabies' July report card
If you’re a Wallabies supporter you’d have to be happy with three consecutive wins under new coach Joe Schmidt, with a relatively new-look squad.
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Schmidt and his team of assistants have certainly improved the Wallabies since their disastrous World Cup in France at the end of 2023 under Eddie Jones.
However, where do the three wins in 2024 leave the Wallabies heading into The Rugby Championship?
In July the Wallabies have absolutely made the pass mark, winning all three Tests, showing gameplay variation, and overall improvement.
The Australian rugby public needed to see wins from the Wallabies and blooding 11 debutants in three matches was a bold and brave move from Schmidt, but it was a necessary risk to find out who his top squad is for the TRC.
Schmidt threw caution to the wind by doing it the hard way, resisting the urge to call upon experienced overseas players.
The lack of experience and cohesion were evident, and the quality of the wins reflected the missing edge only brought by a tight-knit unit.
The Springboks in Brisbane on August 10 will be a much tougher assignment than Wales and Georgia, so will Argentina and the All Blacks.
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The Wallabies are heading in the right direction, but is it at the pace needed to be TRC contenders?
As a fan, as an Australian, you have to take all the good energy, juju, and publicity surrounding the team at the moment, but as a rugby realist you have to accept the Wallabies have been below the standard necessary to compete with the other three TRC teams.
Unpolished performances where the Wallabies have been their own worst enemies typified the month of July, so where are they sitting?
Wallabies July Report Card 6.5/10
This grade has been collated based on a matrix of factors:
– Winning percentage
– The quality of the Wallabies’ wins
– Who the opposition were
– Where the Wallabies are ranked
– Where the Wallabies need to be to compete in TRC
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Winning Percentage
The Wallabies won 100 per cent of their matches let’s start there.
However, they were expected to do so, when hosting a Welsh side which was missing some big names and is undergoing a rebuilding phase of its own.
The Wallabies beat a rising Georgian side who were also missing some key forwards who did not make the trip from France.
Nevertheless, the Wallabies won all three Tests and it never truly felt as though they had lost control of the game in any of the matches.
This factor alone contributes the bulk of their grade above, for without the wins, the cracks that have been painted over would be glaringly obvious.
The quality of the Wallabies’ wins
Although the Wallabies never truly looked like losing any of the three matches, they looked far from convincing complete performances.
The first game against Wales showed the Wallabies had begun to absorb the Schmidt gameplan.
Hardworking forwards did the business in phase play and at the lineout which allowed the backs to execute Schmidt-style strike moves, resulting in line breaks and tries.
A dominant scrum and an oppressive breakdown presence set the tone as the Wallabies muscled up and scored in-tight, showing they were a changed team.
The glaring vulnerability was the Wallabies’ defensive maul which crumbled repeatedly, keeping Wales in both the first and second Tests.
It puts a target on Wallabies’ backs for the entire world to see, the Springboks will be licking their chops.
Schmidt and his assistants are acutely aware of it, improving the maul defence will be crucial to the Wallabies hopes of giving the TRC a shake.
The second Test against Wales optimised a workman’s performance.
Jake Gordon’s and Filipo Daugunu’s two tries were all about work rate. The Wallabies worked hard off the ball and were talented enough to seize the opportunities when they presented themselves.
The woes of the maul continued, however, keeping the Welsh well within the contest with two rolling maul tries.
The worries continued with the Wallabies caught too narrow in defence on several occasions and were lucky the Welsh didn’t distribute wider more often than they did.
Two tries were conceded by the Wallabies by being too passive and too narrow in defence in their own half.
Despite being too narrow on occasion, the Wallabies defence was almost impervious, tackling at 91 and 90 per cent against the Welsh.
The two first Tests were miles better than any of their World Cup performances and defence coach Laurie Fisher should feel he is doing his job well.
Then came the Georgia game.
The Wallabies made 11 changes to their side against a team they should’ve beaten comfortably on paper.
The win was anything but comfortable and they were their own worst enemy once again, with the cracks beginning to show.
Tackling at just 81 per cent, in a game where they had to make the least number of tackles of all three games is just not good enough.
They missed at least double the number of tackles they did against Wales in either Test and the Georgians had equal lowest possession in what was the highest-scoring game of the three-match campaign.
It was an entertaining game of rugby in Sydney on a blustery winter’s afternoon and the Georgians pounced on every opportunity they created.
The try to fullback Davit Niniashvili in the 42nd minute saw the Georgians cut the Wallabies backline to pieces.
The full-field try to the speedster Aka Tabutsadze in the 46th minute exposed the inexperience of the Wallabies side.
The two tries were a 14-point swing which should never have been allowed to happen and it represents exactly how much this Wallabies side must grow to be contenders in TRC.
The Wallabies forwards were solely responsible for the win; rolling maul tries, muscling over in-tight, dominant tackles and the full-field efforts must be commended.
A Wallabies side which has a dominant set piece and a backline which was outclassed against a Georgian side is unheard of, but it made for an entertaining end to the July Tests.
Who the opposition were
Georgia and Wales are not currently top 10 sides, let’s start there.
Wales are sitting in 11th on 76.04 points and Georgia are 12th on 74.10 points.
The lowest-ranked TRC side is Argentina who are 7th on 81.64 points.
This should put everything so far into perspective, giving the praise and criticism context.
Having said that, the margin between 12th and 8th is far smaller than between 7th and 1st, the Wallabies are a long way from where the psyche perhaps wants them to be.
Where the Wallabies are ranked
The Wallabies are ranked 9th on 78.96 points, one position below Italy.
This is an entirely fair and accurate description of where the Wallabies have been over the last 18 months.
But where is the Wallabies ceiling heading into the TRC?
Where the Wallabies need to be to compete in TRC
Fixing the maul is paramount and the importance of being able to rob particularly South Africa of this weapon cannot be overstated.
A lineout offers the easiest opportunity to make gainline metres, they are almost guaranteed.
Taking away the three tries and the yellow card the Wallabies conceded against Wales, changes the aggregate points conceded from 44 to 23.
That is a world of difference.
It’s particularly a vulnerability for the Wallabies due to their slow connected linespeed defence, big ball carriers like Damien de Allende, Siya Kolisi, Jordie Barret, Ardie Savea will make easy gainline metres every time.
A positive has been Schmidt’s desire to imbue the Wallabies with a variation of tactics throughout the Tests, making them better prepared should they need to adjust tactically throughout the TRC.
It also makes it harder for oppositions to analyse the Wallabies so early in their run under Schmidt.
The short kicking game off no.9 and no.10 showcased in the first two games is vastly different from the Irish short passing game executed against Georgia in game three.
Interestingly, if executed well, both tactics can expose the Springboks’ rush defence.
Similarly, the Wallabies connected linespeed deals very well with the Springboks new high-passing attack.
There are rumblings about Will Skelton and Marika Koroibete being the two overseas picks Schmidt could turn to for the TRC.
This is encouraging to hear for a myriad of reasons: he thinks there’s enough talent to work with domestically overall, acknowledges there are some positions which could use bolstering and more experienced players are already back on Australian soil gearing up to return.
Powerhouse prop Angus Bell, experienced hooker Brandon Paenga-Amosa, and fellow rake Dave Porecki are all on the road back to peak fitness and have been training together in Sydney.
It bodes well for a steadily anchored scrum and a weaponizable set-piece.
Prediction for TRC
A general assessment of the Wallabies suggests there will be plenty of errors when the pressure is applied.
A pass mark for the TRC would perhaps be two wins, but three wins are achievable for a squad of players showing glimpses of the best rugby seen in years.
2024 is a year of growth, rebuilding, and cohesion, things which will all take time.
Schmidt will not be under any illusions, nor will his players, the hardest challenges and their first loss are coming, it’s about how they as a team navigate the troughs that will determine the future of this side.
A fantastic coach will bring an immediate improvement in structure and style and great selections.
I’m blowed if I can any of this so far.
I don’t think this Wallaby team is that weak at all. Inexperienced yes, but there are a few good players in that squad. Eddy was just clueless with his selections. Can already see a big improvement. Annoyingly they always bring their best against the Springboks and cower in fear when the AB’s show up. Lord knows why. I think they lose confidence against the kiwi teams in super.