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Justin Marshall issues last-minute warning for the All Blacks
By Luke Norman
Justin Marshall is as aware as anyone ahead of New Zealand’s Rugby World Cup semi-final against Argentina that his former team is “expected to win, should win and will win if they play the rugby they are capable of”. But the man who won 81 All Black caps also knows better than most that things can go horribly wrong in a heartbeat.
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“The reality is how quickly you can be hit in the face when you are cruising in this tournament,” Marshall said with a rueful smile as he contemplated the similarities between the situation the current All Blacks side finds themselves in and those he faced as a player.
“In both cases in my experience of semi-finals, 1999 against France at Twickenham and again in 2003 against Australia, both of those sides we’d had no problems with leading up that tournament. In fact, we’d put 50 on Australia in Sydney seven weeks before we played them in that semi-final,” he recalled.
“We were clearly a better side than both those teams but on that day both of those sides had performances that were out of the gate, that were outside of the way they’d been playing and simply because they were super big-time underdogs in those matches.”
In 1999 the French, inspired by the two Christophes, Lamaison and Dominici, produced one of the all-time great World Cup comebacks to see off Marshall et al 43-31 and four years later, Elton Flatley steered Australia to an equally shocking 22-10 win.
While Marshall does not predict a similar outcome for the All Blacks at the Stade de France on Friday night. Not only was the quarter-final display against Ireland an “absolute complete performance” and not “far off” perfect but Argentina also haven’t experienced the “tempo or the intensity” the All Blacks will bring. He is, however, acutely aware he didn’t see either of his semi-final heartbreaks coming. Or indeed New Zealand’s shock loss to England in Yokohama four years ago.
“You can be in very good rhythm, that you can be on top of your game and you can be beaten really quickly by a side that shouldn’t beat you,” he said. “That’s how quickly a semi-final can flip on you.
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“And Argentina are capable of that.”
The other aspects that most concerns Marshall is his compatriots’ recent history of following real highs with genuine lows, especially given it was Los Pumas who benefited from such fluctuations in form little more than 12 months ago.
“Quite clearly that performance at Ellis Park last year (35-23 win versus South Africa), turning around and putting in one hell of a performance showed they have got it in their
DNA. But then the following week they went back to New Zealand and lost to Argentina at home in Christchurch (25-18),” Marshall said. “Some of the results in the last two years are not flattering. That does not mean one performance results in this fear and this aura coming back.”
While “everybody is already talking about who they are going play in the final” Marshall is desperate that the All Blacks focus on reproducing the intensity and accuracy they found in the 28-24 quarter-final over Ireland last weekend.
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“They still need that performance. They can’t fluctuate. They need to send a statement, not only to themselves, but to the world that they can operate at that level every week,” he said.
Do that and they will avoid the ignominy of the third-fourth place playoff – Marshall admits he was never “less motivated and so demoralised leading in to a test match” than when he had to lace up his boots for those clashes – and the All Blacks will instead head to the final everyone back home is “expecting”.
Although, he does not mind a bit if England upset the formbooks in the other semi-final.
“I think they’d prefer not to play South Africa mate,” Marshall laughed. “They are not a side you want to meet in the final. They are the ultimate foe.
“It would be a blockbuster of a final should it eventuate though.”
Justin Marshall, showed his try’s colours when he tried to stir things up for mr Foster over Razor not being wanted near the players. One has to ask why Sky didn’t employ him. I personally have not missed his commentary for the games. I doubt anything he has to say will be listened to.
Article is incorrect about ‘22 Rugby Championship
NZ had two heavy games against SA in SA. Lost the first in a dominant display by SA and won the second in an all out effort. They lost to Argentina two weeks later and hammered them 53:4 the following week.
That would mean primarily emotional fatigue but some physical fatigue from the mini SA tour.
That would suggest it will be very difficult to replicate the effort from the win over Ireland. I watched highlights of the Christchurch match and NZ tried to win economically but couldn’t get rid of a confident Argentina buzzing after scoring 46 against Australia in Mendoza. NZ lost the game in the breakdown essentially giving away penalties and a yellow late in that game.
The 2 week work before the Italy game where Foster implied that the ability to target and adapt to beat individual opponents had worked remarkably well. They must target Argentina’s weaknesses and pick them apart. That’s the most economical way to get dominance in the match. There will be residual fatigue, you need economy.
The NZ set piece is obviously in a very different place and Argentina’s scrum is relatively weak. Keep it simple, target the breakdown set pieces and deploy the greyhounds intelligently when the opportunity arises. They are miles ahead of 2022 and if what Foster says is true and they are excelling in quick match preparation then this will be very different.
With a little luck on their side NZ can win economically and my gut says they will need to win with some economy if they are to go on and win the World Cup. I’m still up for the Pumas.