Let's be real about these All Blacks

The only losses so far under All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson are one at home unexpectedly to Argentina, two away to South Africa and now a one-point loss to France in Paris.

In every Test so far in 2024 the All Blacks have been in a position to win. It’s not folly to say that they could be sitting on a perfect record.

While the Rugby Championship was a failure, because for the All Blacks it’s always win or nothing, they weren’t far off.

The opening loss to Argentina by 38-30 featured fine margins that tipped the game in favour of the visitors.

After building a 20-8 lead, a wayward bomb led to a cheap try to winger Mateo Carreras. It was a sublime break and finish, but offered up on a platter from a defenceless position on the field after a poor aerial contest. The ball was batted back to no one.

Later in the second half a potential game-sealing try to Damian McKenzie was called back for a forward pass that occurred earlier in the passage. Two plays and a 14-point swing against the All Blacks.

The loss was a surprise but not a disaster. It was very much winnable, as was the two games against the Springboks. Winning in South Africa has always been a tough proposition for New Zealand, and this year’s schedule was tipped in the Springboks favour.

From 2010-2018 the All Blacks enjoyed a historically great run over South Africa, seven wins from nine Tests at 78 per cent. But the historical win rate in the Republic is just 46 per cent, highlighting this anomaly.

The Springboks with their home ground advantage, with all the hyperbole and over the top rhetoric, were actually pantsed at Ellis Park for the majority of the game.

As Rassie Erasmus said, they were just trying to stop the All Blacks get a winning bonus point. At 27-17 with four tries in the bank the game looked over. The Springboks even got a freebee with Bongi knocking on in the process of scoring.

The crucial moment came with the foot on the Boks’ throat and a chance from five metres out. Instead of attempting to score with a maul like they had through Codie Taylor earlier, they went with a cute trick lineout play. It didn’t work out. A few phases later TJ Perenara left the ball unguarded at the base of the ruck and South Africa pinched it. There was no killer instinct in that moment and they missed the opportunity to go up 34-17 with a quarter of the game to go.

Penalty after penalty and the Springboks were able to score two jammy tries to steal the win. The inexperienced bench was not able to handle the moment given to them.

But let’s not ignore that South Africa barely got over the line in both Tests. For the supposed world champions, this was not a crowning endorsement of their play. The All Blacks certainly bombed one of the two Tests, and were in a position to take both.

Fast forward to November and the All Blacks’ bench has finally come good with the return of Cam Roigard, Patrick Tuipulotu, and the emergence of Pasilio Tosi. With Barrett an option at No 10, McKenzie has been superb in cameos from the pine.

Against England at Twickenham it was the reserve front rowers who turned the entire game. The All Blacks pair, Tosi and Ofa Tu’ungafasi, won two critical penalties, after England had dominance at the scrum the entire game.

On the final play they pushed England off the ball, disrupting Randall’s ball at the base which led to England going backward. It played a massive part in George Ford’s missed drop goal.

Lock Patrick Tuipulotu came on early in the second half and pounded England’s pack. He led from the front and imposed himself physically on the game. McKenzie, who came off the bench, nailed two crucial kicks to take the win.

If the All Blacks had this bench at Ellis Park, it would have been lights out.

After knocking off the world number one Ireland side by 23-13, the best win of the year, Razor’s men had the lead 17-10 over France after a Roigard-inspired first half.

France took an opportunist try to take the lead, not too dissimilar from England a fortnight previously, when Tupou Vaa’i’s offload went to ground and was snatched up by Thomas Ramos.

The All Blacks tried to inch back in front with penalty goals, but were left without time to conjure up enough. A key decision to take the three six minutes from time down by four a moment missed. Against England in a similar situation, they did go for the try and Mark Tele’a’s second score gave them the win.

As they prepare to face Italy in the final Test of the year, the 2024 All Blacks can finish with a win rate as high as 71 per cent or as low as 64.

Should they avoid an eggfaced moment in Turin with 10 wins from the 14 Tests, having been in a position to win all 14, Razor’s first year will go down as a B-.

They swept England 3-0 and knocked off the world number one side at home, but gave up the Rugby Championship title for the first time in a full edition. Four losses is over par for the All Blacks, but they also were scheduled to play all the top four sides in one year.

Whilst these All Blacks aren’t blowing teams off the park like during the 2010s, they are nuggety and resourceful and don’t wilt. They are prepared to win the hard way, accumulating points by any means necessary.

The other top sides in the world struggled to put them away. France and South Africa both could have well been defeated on home soil.

Tupou Vaa’i played out of his skin through the middle of the season. Wallace Sititi emerged as a game-breaker, while Peter Lakai is another gem uncovered. There are more sitting there in the wings, like fullback Ruben Love who was instrumental to the Hurricanes. Another, Riley Higgins, could rise all the way next year and fill Jordie Barrett’s vacant jersey and both club and international level.

We know the All Blacks are going to be Rugby World Cup contenders in three years time based on this season, but they have to take the lessons from the late-game situations that left four wins on the table.

If they do that, the All Blacks will start running through teams from 2025 onward.