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Let's be real about these All Blacks
By Ben Smith
The only losses so far under All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson are one at home unexpectedly to Argentina, two away to South Africa and now a one-point loss to France in Paris.
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In every Test so far in 2024 the All Blacks have been in a position to win. It’s not folly to say that they could be sitting on a perfect record.
While the Rugby Championship was a failure, because for the All Blacks it’s always win or nothing, they weren’t far off.
The opening loss to Argentina by 38-30 featured fine margins that tipped the game in favour of the visitors.
After building a 20-8 lead, a wayward bomb led to a cheap try to winger Mateo Carreras. It was a sublime break and finish, but offered up on a platter from a defenceless position on the field after a poor aerial contest. The ball was batted back to no one.
Later in the second half a potential game-sealing try to Damian McKenzie was called back for a forward pass that occurred earlier in the passage. Two plays and a 14-point swing against the All Blacks.
The loss was a surprise but not a disaster. It was very much winnable, as was the two games against the Springboks. Winning in South Africa has always been a tough proposition for New Zealand, and this year’s schedule was tipped in the Springboks favour.
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From 2010-2018 the All Blacks enjoyed a historically great run over South Africa, seven wins from nine Tests at 78 per cent. But the historical win rate in the Republic is just 46 per cent, highlighting this anomaly.
The Springboks with their home ground advantage, with all the hyperbole and over the top rhetoric, were actually pantsed at Ellis Park for the majority of the game.
As Rassie Erasmus said, they were just trying to stop the All Blacks get a winning bonus point. At 27-17 with four tries in the bank the game looked over. The Springboks even got a freebee with Bongi knocking on in the process of scoring.
The crucial moment came with the foot on the Boks’ throat and a chance from five metres out. Instead of attempting to score with a maul like they had through Codie Taylor earlier, they went with a cute trick lineout play. It didn’t work out. A few phases later TJ Perenara left the ball unguarded at the base of the ruck and South Africa pinched it. There was no killer instinct in that moment and they missed the opportunity to go up 34-17 with a quarter of the game to go.
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Penalty after penalty and the Springboks were able to score two jammy tries to steal the win. The inexperienced bench was not able to handle the moment given to them.
But let’s not ignore that South Africa barely got over the line in both Tests. For the supposed world champions, this was not a crowning endorsement of their play. The All Blacks certainly bombed one of the two Tests, and were in a position to take both.
Fast forward to November and the All Blacks’ bench has finally come good with the return of Cam Roigard, Patrick Tuipulotu, and the emergence of Pasilio Tosi. With Barrett an option at No 10, McKenzie has been superb in cameos from the pine.
Against England at Twickenham it was the reserve front rowers who turned the entire game. The All Blacks pair, Tosi and Ofa Tu’ungafasi, won two critical penalties, after England had dominance at the scrum the entire game.
On the final play they pushed England off the ball, disrupting Randall’s ball at the base which led to England going backward. It played a massive part in George Ford’s missed drop goal.
Lock Patrick Tuipulotu came on early in the second half and pounded England’s pack. He led from the front and imposed himself physically on the game. McKenzie, who came off the bench, nailed two crucial kicks to take the win.
If the All Blacks had this bench at Ellis Park, it would have been lights out.
After knocking off the world number one Ireland side by 23-13, the best win of the year, Razor’s men had the lead 17-10 over France after a Roigard-inspired first half.
France took an opportunist try to take the lead, not too dissimilar from England a fortnight previously, when Tupou Vaa’i’s offload went to ground and was snatched up by Thomas Ramos.
The All Blacks tried to inch back in front with penalty goals, but were left without time to conjure up enough. A key decision to take the three six minutes from time down by four a moment missed. Against England in a similar situation, they did go for the try and Mark Tele’a’s second score gave them the win.
As they prepare to face Italy in the final Test of the year, the 2024 All Blacks can finish with a win rate as high as 71 per cent or as low as 64.
Should they avoid an eggfaced moment in Turin with 10 wins from the 14 Tests, having been in a position to win all 14, Razor’s first year will go down as a B-.
They swept England 3-0 and knocked off the world number one side at home, but gave up the Rugby Championship title for the first time in a full edition. Four losses is over par for the All Blacks, but they also were scheduled to play all the top four sides in one year.
Whilst these All Blacks aren’t blowing teams off the park like during the 2010s, they are nuggety and resourceful and don’t wilt. They are prepared to win the hard way, accumulating points by any means necessary.
The other top sides in the world struggled to put them away. France and South Africa both could have well been defeated on home soil.
Tupou Vaa’i played out of his skin through the middle of the season. Wallace Sititi emerged as a game-breaker, while Peter Lakai is another gem uncovered. There are more sitting there in the wings, like fullback Ruben Love who was instrumental to the Hurricanes. Another, Riley Higgins, could rise all the way next year and fill Jordie Barrett’s vacant jersey and both club and international level.
We know the All Blacks are going to be Rugby World Cup contenders in three years time based on this season, but they have to take the lessons from the late-game situations that left four wins on the table.
If they do that, the All Blacks will start running through teams from 2025 onward.
Go behind the scenes of both camps during the British and Irish Lions tour of South Africa in 2021. Binge watch exclusively on RugbyPass TV now
If you give me a hundred articles written without telling me the writers' names, I can tell you 100% which ones were written by Ben Smith. The problem with the internet, unlike printed media, is that anyone can be a "journalist ". At least in the printed media world articles are vetted by the editor before being published
Blah blah blah. Bring on Italy. And then 2025. Exciting times ahead.
Was anything but fine margins, the scoreline was flattering for that game. They were beat in every margin but most emphatically be effort of Argentina. They were slow and likely arrogant in their prep following the England series. You can see the effect on the selection and poor messaging all the playmakers started receiving from the coaching setup there after.
Otherwise though there was also a lot of really good stuff that can too easily be labelled as lucky by people intent on making a point. The team was far from certain and clinical though and the best that can be said of their losses was that they were largely due to some atrocious decisions with cards twice against SA and the neckroll last weekend (you can't take away the 14 point try, that is typical French rugby and to be expected).
This team is good enough to be able to cope with those sorts of difficulties if they could just execute a bit better (but only as well as they have traditionally mind you). Sound selections aside. Some good positivity in this article but we know it's not going to be easy as the ABs have just been trying to return to their DNA after Fosters control but countries like Aussie have a much bigger task in that respect and SA is even trying to change their DNA (again). Those two opponents (along with France obviously) are going to provide some tough competition in seeing who can lead into the 2027 RWC with the best prospects and form behind them.
Another poorly written article. Well done Ben, keep up the good work!
Great article! So controversial it will no doubt get suckers to comment and raise clicks and views!!! Its by design that Ben writes such biased and skewed opinioned articles to get the anger and shock affect. Great marketing
SH rugby is dying. To win, the teams have had to rely on the incompetence of the refs.
You had a good run, but hopefully world rugby gets better standards for refs and your slide to irrelevance will be quick and justified.
It’s obvious that Ben has beef with anything South African. Probably never set foot on the field with his limited knowledge .All the top teams are extremely close with a bounce of ball or contentious call impacting a result. Not all teams can stay at their pinnacle. The Boks are benefiting from good structures & depth at the moment. Could have , should have , would have & I might have been a millionaire. We will enjoy our time at the top but NZ will come again.
No, you just took it that way.
As an ABs fan there’s nothing to justify
The Boks are the best and just know how to win
And their depth is incredible now
And when they don’t they lose late on by one point
The rest of us aren’t too far away (some closer than others)
But in reality if we include England Argentina and now Aus rugby looks greatly competitive
Bongis knock on and Lomaxes double bank
These things happen
The fact is the ABs overall have evolved with new players and others like Aumua Vaai and Williams who have progressed immensely
But by and large although it has improved overall our second halves are a massive work in progress
So a B- is about right provided there is no loss to Italy
A loss drops it to C- !!
Remember we could have lost all three games to England but were just slightly better that’s all
Yes even if NZ had of remained at 15 men you suspect they would have still found a way to come back and beat them.
In his first season, Razor has sorted through his forward pack and now has the starters and bench depth good enough to defeat any team in the world, including the Springboks, when they play to their ability. I'm sure he knows next season his best back row is Savea- Sititi- Lakai and just needs to settle on who wears which jersey.
I'm also sure Razor knows his weakness still the 10-12-13 axis and he needs to introduce 2 or 3 new midfielders. J. Barrett and Ioane just do not work well together in attack. One or both need to be dropped from the centers. And its time to put ALB and Havili out to pasture.
Hopefully two or more of Lam, Tupaua, Higgins, Macleod, and Proctor have outstanding Super Rugby seasons and demand a starting spot at 12 or 13.
Whoever thought that 10 would be the weakest position in NZ Rugby. I don't have a clue who is capable of a massive boost in their performance and earn selection from the current 10s playing for the NZ Super franchises and capable of taking a spot from Barrett or McKenzie.
This article highlights exactly the problem with Ben Smith's view of the ABs. In the past an almost win was unthinkable, it was unheard of and anyone saying "It's fine because given the right circumstances we would have won" would never be heard from again.
The fact that Ben Smith is trying to justify the ABs losses by saying they were almost wins shows how far the ABs have slipped from their peak with Richie McCaw and Co.
Also Richie and friends would have settled a rare loss by winning comfortably the next round.
Now dear Ol' BS is spouting ridiculous statements by saying the other teams were no good. Funny how the teams that were no good somehow managed to beat the 'best team' in Ben Smith's world.
Hm makes you wonder doesn't it?
Another click bait BS article from a BS person. Pathetic really.
This is a nonsense phrase that has become popular when rugby fans describe their own teams.
Regardless of the game, or which team you favor, both teams are likely to have "left points behind" or "gifted" their opponents some scores.
The truth is that in these four games NZ were not good enough to impose themselves and deliver the wins. Teams can improve, and I hope NZ does so, but let's not avoid the fact that they tried and failed.
Its not "left wins behind", but "this year we weren't good enough".
B is probably about right for the season. B+ for results, but B- for improvement throughout the season.
My main takeaway has been the number of tries that have been left on the field. Thinking back to Fozzie's first couple of years they really struggled to create anything, but took their chances pretty well when they came and still had the individual talent to conjure the odd piece of magic against the run of play.
This year's team has been given a lot more license to attack and have created so many opportunities, only for so many to go begging. I thought the efforts against SA, Ireland and France were all worthy of 4 tries minimum, but simple mistakes at the wrong time, pushing passes instead of retaining the ball, and taking completely the wrong option has kept us to 2 tries when 3 would have won it.
It certainly has the makings of something good, but next year will be the real litmus test to see if this is an attacking structure that can evolve and improve, or will always be hit and miss because of it's very nature and lack of structure.
What you say is true, but it's a new coach with a different structure and cohesiveness takes time. To be honest, despite the losses, the AB's looked more dangerous this year and more exciting.
Ben … Firstly agree the Bongi try should have been cancelled, but then you also need to chalk off the first AB try for clear double banking in the lineout drive. What’s good for one has to be good for the other. Secondly why so many if’s … if my aunty had balls she would be my uncle !
Aaah. Ben Smith. Ever the unbiased, objective rugby scribe......NOT.
Unable to give credit where it's due, other than for the ABs, especially when it comes to the Boks. His contempt for them is tangible. If you want to " Get Real" about these ABs Ben, consider when they last beat the Boks??? For us Bok fans, beating the ABs is the only true measure.
"they [All Blacks] are nuggety and resourceful and don’t wilt. They are prepared to win the hard way, accumulating points by any means necessary."
Sounds like you're describing your arch-nemesis Ben 😁
I said before the November tests that the AB's should go smash some Nh teams to find their feet and it seems that is just what they did bar France. Could have should have always sucks. Better to look to the future.
On behalf of New Zealand, I apologise for Ben Smith.
It is true that some of the ABs losses were unlucky but it must also be conceded that some of their wins were equally fortuitous and even out overall. I firmly believe that provided the team takes stock of their shortcomings and remedy them while building on the positive, they will return to being the juggernaut of past glories. They are not that far off and Razor has largely developed a side which is capable of not only winning a world cup but returning to the top of world rankings. Boks beware as uneasy the head that wears the crown.
The opportunity is there I agree with the articles tone too! Not sure which close games they could have lost. You could say the last English one given the tiny end but then they also got lucky with a 14 point try when our two players got in the road of each other.
Poor Ben, coping after the All Blacks have only barely scraped by 3 times against England while we got a comfortable win and have the best record of the year.
It's wonderful to see the top 5 teams in the world being so close. It makes for great expectation and enthralling contests. Strange though is that we all (rugby fans) recognise this and I for one give credit to our opposition. But this writer chooses to push the "could have, should have, they were lucky" narrative.
I, as a Bok supporter, give credit to the AB's, Ireland, France and Argentina for their high level of play. Predicting a result between any of these 5 teams is like a coin toss. And it is wonderful for all the true supporters of rugby to watch these matches.
It's a shame that Mr Smith always finds a way to degrade the opposing teams and spin his negative rhetoric.
Rugby is in the best place it's been for decades.
Us true fans are enjoying the rugby and long may it continue.
One little man won't change that.
I appreciate this but you can see from the comments here the love in between NZ-SA where real respect lies. NZ detest Ireland since the series loss inventing narratives of arrogance and conspiracy theories about TMOs. Rugby Union is a Global Mickey Mouse game compared to soccer for example. Nations need to have a more friendly generous outlook towards each other.
He doesn't generally do it at all, for anybody, so don't say too much the next one could be just as positive about the Springboks if you don't get carried away!
He also pointed out the "no killer instinct" narrative that they simply weren't good enough. Do yo disagree that SA were that great against NZ?
Readying the article I didn't even see that as a dig towards SA SF, simply an exciting take on how close the ABs really are again to those at the top. I feel it is more you that is taking away from this enjoyment with you replay that is largely based on a lot of old resentment.
Just enjoy how good the rugby is and that NZ is back baby!
Completely agree. England 'should have' picked up a result against the ABs, under Ben Smith's logic throughout this article. He wouldn't dream of saying that though. To say the ABs 'should have had' a perfect season is ludicrous. Those springbok tries being 'jammy' really does smack of the same hyperbole and bias he claims to detest about SA.
As an Englishman, one thing that excites me despite my team consistently losing currently (lol) is that there ARE a number of top teams that ALL challenge each other to the end. Instead of everyone whining and complaining and rueing their team's narrow loss, can't we just do what Eggchasers does and just enjoy how competitive it is right now!? Can we not respect the opposition instead of either rubbing it in (online, rarely done face to face surprise surprise) or trying to save our ego's blushes by slamming the opposing team because they beat us!?
I think the All Blacks will come back next year and become the team that is always dangerous, however I believe that the one thing they will not get back is that "mystic" that they cannot be beaten. Every team lost to the All Black's before they even got on to the field, now teams know that it's possible to beat them and that makes them vounarable.
Ben moaning and whinging about the dominant Boks is an editorial highlight for me.
You Bok fans must get sick of reading this stuff, honestly. They're a great team. Our ABs just need to play better and take the ref out of the equation.
Ben, I'm a die-hard Bok supporter. If any team worries me going forward, it's the Al Blacks. I see them rising their game and it will be a huge task to win a game there. We respect your team and most of their supporters immensely. I'm puzzled why you seem to dislike our team so much. I hardly ever remember you saying anything positive about the Boks. All in all, only have great respect for the All Blacks and may our current great rivalry last for years to come!!
Because hes a doos looking for clickbait reactions.
I’d say France are going to be a real problem going forward. The rivalry between NZ and SA will always be there. But France worries me going forward.
SA has a much tougher task in learning how to play with Tony Brown's influence IMO but in the same respect they can raise their game so much more if their attack becomes as influential as their defence/control. That will certainly shut.. everyone up!
I'd be happy with 50/50 so hopefully you don't get everything right! 😅
CL Ben targets you guys but never shows the respect you deserve because he gets paid for it! 🥲 True AB supporters will show our support always because of the incredible longevity of our mutual rugby history together as Jen alludes to below. I fondly remember hours spent in early mornings shared with Dad and my brothers in the middle of last century nothing with more than a crackling radio to share commentaries from Jo'burg or Capetown say the same as you guys would do when you Boks came to NZ on long tours with vivid memories without visuals on TV either ...WIN OR LOSE! 😍 but still keeping scores lol that's where respect was born! 😎
Our rivalry with the Boks is special. I can live with getting smashed by an excellent SA side. NOONE ELSE THOUGH. Losing to Engerland is not okay.
If there's one team ABs fans don't mind losing to, it's the boks. We all respect them immensly. But the fact is we just hate anyone who beats the all blacks.
The margins at the top of the game are very fine and thats what makes it so interesting at the moment. In the last 3 years there have been very few top tier contests decided by large margins. In fact these matches are routinely decided by one score. Its the ability to win close contests that seperate the best teams at the moment. NZ are 3rd in the rankings and thats fair. They have not closed out enough close games to claim the number 1 spot. This has been a year of development for them and they have lost 4 test matches which isnt bad with all things considered. Its true that they are not far away but they are also more vulnerable than they have been in the past. Many sides can see that its possible to beat them. They no longer have the Aura of invincibility and they are no longer the apex predators. 10 from 14 (assuming they beat Italy) is not a bad year but its more of the same after the Foster Era who had similar percentages. Its another 70% year but theres is also the feeling that they have made progress and are closer to where they want to be. Theres alot of potential in this squad. Lets see what next year brings.
Yes, certainly. As an AB fan happy to be included in that top 3 of "matches that are routinely decided by one score" now, we were well outside that for a few years.
They have not had enough games yet. You can't undo so many poor years just like that. Asking for miracles like SA losing is not the way to get back to number 1.
They might get there as those bad years filter out of the rankings but it's guarenteed to be great fun going back and forth with SA once that happens.
Admittedly Foster only really had one bad year (21/22 season), but that's more likely because COVID stopped a lot of tough games from being played, and effected the other countries they did play far more than themselves.
A real shame we both don't get to see it unfold first with our regions teams in SR!
Whatever makes you feel better Ben.
Do you not believe that the ABs are rising? Do you not see this as a change year? Im not claiming all he says will happen but I dont see a lot of errors in his logic behind it.
Man I wish rugby writers would shut up about calls that go against their team.
That’s just the game. You’re going to get wrong calls against you (Bongi’s try) and for you (Cody’s try).
Too much bitching in rugby about about referees and rules and TMOs and endless discussion about how to speed the game up.
Please just let the lads slap some boots on and go bash each other up and score some freakin’ points.
Hey fella, this is written by Ben Smith who is not a rugby writer....